The minister for education is very keen for children to learn Latin. So here’s a thread with some Latin that I’d like @GavinWilliamson to learn. (All Latin etymology via etymonline.com).

An easy one for starters:

1)Virus. Latin for “poison”.
2)Transmission. From Latin transmittere "send across, cause to go across, transfer, pass on," from trans "across, beyond" + mittere "to release, let go; send, throw"
3)Mitigation. From the Latin mitigatus, past participle of mitigare "soften, make tender, ripen, mellow, tame," figuratively, "make mild or gentle, pacify, soothe".
4)Ventilation. from Latin ventilatus, past participle of ventilare "to brandish, toss in the air, winnow, fan, agitate, set in motion," from ventulus "a breeze," diminutive of ventus "wind".
5)Vaccination. From Latin vaccinus, which means "from cows," from vacca, the Latin word for "cow." (The original vaccine being an injection of pus from a cowpox lesion).
6)Pandemic. Not actually Latin, but Greek (but it’s all about the Classics, right?). From pandemos, “pan” meaning “all” and “demos” meaning “people” (like that other archaic term, democracy, literally “rule by the people”). So a “pandemic” affects all people, including children.
7) Responsible. From Latin respons-, past-participle stem of respondere "respond, answer to, promise in return," from re- "back" (see re-) + spondere "to pledge".
8) Minister. One who serves. From Latin minister (genitive ministri) "inferior, servant, priest's assistant" (in Medieval Latin, "priest"), from minus, minor "less," hence "subordinate" (from PIE root *mei- (2) "small") + comparative suffix *-teros.
9) Pupils. From Latin pupillus (fem. pupilla) "orphan child, ward, minor," diminutive of pupus "boy" (fem. pupa "girl"), probably related to puer "child". An "orphan child, ward, person *under the care of* a guardian".
10) Advocate. To "plead in favor of," from Latin advocatus, past participle of advocare: ad + vocare "to call," which is related to vox "voice". An advocate(n) in Middle English is "one who intercedes for another"; a "protector, champion, patron."
Let's consolidate (make strong) what we've learnt by combining the words in a sentence:

The responsible minister advocated for the vaccination of pupils and reduced transmission of the virus in schools through mitigations such as ventilation.

That's Latin we can all advocate.

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More from @ProfColinDavis

31 Jul
Order has been restored, and the link between cases and hospital admissions seems to be re-established. But this still leaves the puzzle of what happened in the middle of July, when cases and admissions briefly became unstuck. Image
On this graph, the black line shows the number of cases we'd expect, based on the number of (subsequent) admissions. The actual number fits the prediction (postdiction, technically) very nicely, except in the circled area. Image
The puzzle isn't what caused the spike. Pretty much everyone seems happy to lay the blame on football (people watching in groups indoors).

The puzzle is twofold:

1) Why didn't the case spike produce an admissions spike?
2) How did the spike dissipate so quickly without a trace?
Read 7 tweets
23 Jul
My TL is absolutely full of people who look at this graph and *still* want to say “the link is broken” or “the link has weakened” or “the jury is out”. So let me have another go at explaining a distinction that confuses some people (and is wilfully abused by others). [THREAD]
Of course vaccines have reduced the proportion of cases that lead to hospitalisation. I'm not denying that. I've published research about how important it is that we talk about the high efficacy of COVID vaccines, because this could increase vaccine uptake.bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
That research is published in the British Journal of Health Psychology (it's open access, so you can read it). bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

There's a short summary in the @ConversationUK . theconversation.com/vaccines-for-c…

So yes -- VACCINES WORK!
Read 22 tweets
22 Jul
This one's for Dawn ...

Anyone who wants to claim that the link between cases and hospitalisation has been "broken" or "severed" might like to explain why the red line (cases) and the blue line (admissions) have been moving in near-perfect synchrony since the start of June.
One of the things I was at pains to point out in this interview is that we haven't broken the link (0:25).
Some people were confused that the plot above had separate scales on the left and right. This version might help. Note that hospitalisations are actually coming 7 days later than the case specimen date; the plot takes the lag into account so you can see the lines moving together.
Read 6 tweets
21 Jul
Someone posted this image (with no text) in response to some info about vaccination clinics. The highlighting draws attention to there having been more deaths among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. So let's briefly review why these numbers mean *you SHOULD get vaccinated*.🧵 Image
The bottom row of the table shows that among the over-50s, there were 50 deaths among people who'd been double-vaccinated versus only 38 among those who hadn't been vaccinated. So it's better not to get vaccinated, right? Wrong! Image
This is an example of what psychologists call the base-rate fallacy. If you made this mistake, don't feel bad, because pretty much everyone does, including experienced health-care professionals who confront this problem daily. Here's some more info. thedecisionlab.com/biases/base-ra…
Read 8 tweets
21 Jul
If you live in #Bristol it's worth knowing that the Covid rate is still growing fast (the log plot shows the rate doubling every 8 days at present). We're now #16 in the list of local authorities with highest rates (most of those higher in the list are in the NE or NW). ImageImage
In Bristol, the fastest growth is currently in 30-34 year olds (note this is a log scale). Image
Read 4 tweets
9 Jul
Calling all epidemiologists! Public Health England needs your help to solve a puzzling mystery.

The WHO have notified the world that the #1 Covid hotspot in Europe is the North East of England.

Why there? PHE doesn't know. They don't even know *where* it's happening in the NE.
For example, last week (Week 26, 28/6 - 4/7) there were no "situations/incidents" in hospitals, educational settings, prisons, workplaces or food outlets. Not one. And yet there were 16,607 cases in the NE that week.
The week before that (Week 25, 21-27 June) there were 9,346 cases in the NE. And how many "situations/incidents" were there in hospitals, educational settings, prisons, or food outlets? None. There was a single workplace outbreak.
Read 21 tweets

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