This winter, the world will be fighting over a finite supply of natural gas 🥊
The energy crisis in Europe presages trouble for the rest of the planet as the continent’s gas shortage has governments warning of blackouts and factories being forced to shut
🇰🇷 While South Korea is largely protected by long-term LNG contracts that are indexed to oil, Korea Electric Power Co. said on Sept. 23 that it will increase electricity prices for the first time in almost eight years
🇵🇰 The cost of securing LNG supplies has sparked a political controversy in strapped Pakistan, with opposition politicians demanding an inquiry into purchases by the state-owned importer
🇧🇷 In Brazil, a drought has curbed hydropower output and forced utilities to rely more heavily on gas. The country boosted gas imports to an all-time high in July, and power bills are rising
🇪🇺🇬🇧 And then there is Europe
Power prices across the continent has surged due largely to the record-breaking rally in gas prices
Utilities are struggling to refill seasonally low inventories amid limited flows from Norway/Russia. Meanwhile, Asia/Brazil are buying all the LNG
🥊The stage is set for an all-out scramble among Asia, Europe, the MidEast, and S. America for LNG
“We have huge demand from all our customers and unfortunately, we can’t cater for everyone,” Qatar’s energy minister warned last week
Already, you're seeing a bit of an LNG bidding war between Europe and China
Sinopec just bought a bunch of winter LNG cargoes at wide premiums to the European benchmark, indicating that China is willing to fork over more cash for the fuel as its energy crisis deepens
🇺🇸 The situation in the US is interesting
American LNG exports are poised to hit a record high this winter due to the robust overseas demand
That leaves less gas for the domestic market, which means Henry Hub could extend its rally. Prices are already trading near a 7-year high
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China has traditionally purchased nearly all of its coal supplies from producers within Asia, but that changed last year when it stopped buying from Australia amid a political dispute between the once-close trading partners, leading to sporadic shortages
While China mines half of the world’s coal, its supply hasn’t been able to keep up with its breakneck demand
Thermal power generation in the year through August is 14% higher than last year, while coal production is up only 4.4%. So they need more imports to fill the gap
Natural gas prices are SURGING around the world today 🚀📈
🇪🇺 Dutch TTF jumped as much as 12% to above 85 euros/MWh, a record high, after a drop in Russian supply
🇺🇸 US Henry Hub just topped $6/mmbtu for the first time since 2014
🇯🇵 JKM is above $30/mmbtu, a seasonal high
European natural gas prices are again surging toward a record high 📈🚀
That's due in part to:
> Carbon futures hitting an all-time high as utilities turn to coal
> Seasonally low stockpiles, limited supply from Russia/Norway
> Robust Chinese LNG demand
> Uncertain wind output
EU benchmark carbon futures surged above 65 euros/ton for the first time ever as utilities seek coal supplies amid the global gas shortage
European coal futures for next-year delivery also surged to the highest since 2008 amid growing demand from the continent's utilities
With about a month to go before the start of the heating season, Europe doesn’t have enough natural gas in storage and isn’t building inventories fast enough either. Gas and power prices are hitting new records
LNG shipments tagged “carbon neutral” are gaining popularity in Asia, despite criticism that the offsets used don’t actually cancel out emissions from the fuel 🏭
Japan, which is looking for ways to cut emissions, continues to be the main destination 🇯🇵
In the past month, BP and Petronas delivered so-called green cargoes to customers in N. Asia
However, carbon credits purchased for the shipments didn’t cover emissions from combustion of the natural gas, which produces roughly 70% of total emissions
Critics, including those from within the industry, have called for more transparency when it comes to offsetting emissions from fossil fuels with carbon credits