European natural gas prices are again surging toward a record high 📈🚀

That's due in part to:

> Carbon futures hitting an all-time high as utilities turn to coal
> Seasonally low stockpiles, limited supply from Russia/Norway
> Robust Chinese LNG demand
> Uncertain wind output
EU benchmark carbon futures surged above 65 euros/ton for the first time ever as utilities seek coal supplies amid the global gas shortage
European coal futures for next-year delivery also surged to the highest since 2008 amid growing demand from the continent's utilities
US gas prices have surged to the highest level since 2014 amid winter supply fears

American LNG exports are poised to reach a record high this winter as new projects ramp up output, leaving less supply for the domestic market
Dutch TTF and UK NBP natural gas prices closed at record highs on Monday amid a global supply crunch

Both are now trading above the equivalent of $26/mmbtu (!)

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More from @SStapczynski

29 Sep
China, the world’s top coal consumer, is in dire need of more supply and is willing to pay any price 🇨🇳🪨

China has even been boosting coal imports from some of South Asia and Europe’s mainstay suppliers, leaving less fuel for energy-starved rivals

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
China has traditionally purchased nearly all of its coal supplies from producers within Asia, but that changed last year when it stopped buying from Australia amid a political dispute between the once-close trading partners, leading to sporadic shortages

smh.com.au/business/marke…
While China mines half of the world’s coal, its supply hasn’t been able to keep up with its breakneck demand

Thermal power generation in the year through August is 14% higher than last year, while coal production is up only 4.4%. So they need more imports to fill the gap Image
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep
Natural gas prices are SURGING around the world today 🚀📈

🇪🇺 Dutch TTF jumped as much as 12% to above 85 euros/MWh, a record high, after a drop in Russian supply
🇺🇸 US Henry Hub just topped $6/mmbtu for the first time since 2014
🇯🇵 JKM is above $30/mmbtu, a seasonal high Image
US natural gas prices have surged by more than 10% to as high as $6.280/mmbtu

A close at that level would be the highest settlement since Dec. 2018 Image
Read 5 tweets
27 Sep
This winter, the world will be fighting over a finite supply of natural gas 🥊

The energy crisis in Europe presages trouble for the rest of the planet as the continent’s gas shortage has governments warning of blackouts and factories being forced to shut

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇨🇳 China, the world’s top buyer of natural gas, hasn’t filled stockpiles fast enough, even though imports have surged in the last year

Several Chinese provinces are already rationing power, and gas shortages and frigid weather could exacerbate shutdowns

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇰🇷 While South Korea is largely protected by long-term LNG contracts that are indexed to oil, Korea Electric Power Co. said on Sept. 23 that it will increase electricity prices for the first time in almost eight years

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202109…
Read 9 tweets
13 Sep
Europe’s energy crunch is deepening 🚨

With about a month to go before the start of the heating season, Europe doesn’t have enough natural gas in storage and isn’t building inventories fast enough either. Gas and power prices are hitting new records

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Europe is struggling to refill natural gas inventories, with flows from No. 2 supplier Norway currently limited due to maintenance

Top seller Russia is “is coming off an extended period of inexplicably low supply” at a time when US deliveries of LNG can’t be increased further
Bloomberg wrote in late-June that there just isn't enough natural gas to calm down the global rally in prices

TTF has DOUBLED since the article was published

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 6 tweets
9 Sep
LNG shipments tagged “carbon neutral” are gaining popularity in Asia, despite criticism that the offsets used don’t actually cancel out emissions from the fuel 🏭

Japan, which is looking for ways to cut emissions, continues to be the main destination 🇯🇵

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
In the past month, BP and Petronas delivered so-called green cargoes to customers in N. Asia

However, carbon credits purchased for the shipments didn’t cover emissions from combustion of the natural gas, which produces roughly 70% of total emissions

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Critics, including those from within the industry, have called for more transparency when it comes to offsetting emissions from fossil fuels with carbon credits

ft.com/content/cfaa16…
Read 4 tweets
8 Sep
North Asia spot LNG prices have rallied above $20/mmbtu, an all-time high for this time of year 📈

Asian buyers are ramping up competition with Europe for available LNG cargoes, while several outages hamper global supply

In other words: When Europe gas prices rise, JKM follows
To understand what's happening in Asia, you gotta watch Europe

It's normal for LNG prices to spike during extreme weather events in the summer and winter (for example, check out Jan. 2021)

But it is odd for prices to be SO high in September, when utilities aren't yet scrambling for shipments of the super-chilled fuel
Read 4 tweets

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