A couple of weeks ago @ChathamHouse, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, published a crucial new ‘Climate change Risk Assessment’, which barely made the papers let alone the front pages.

But it REALLY should have done! Here’s why 🧵…

As stated on the cover of the report we have now reached a stage in the #climatecrisis where:
“The risks are compounding, and without immediate action the impacts will be devastating” 2/n
The report highlights that failure to act means that “cascading climate impacts can be expected to cause higher mortality rates, drive political instability and greater national insecurity, and fuel regional & international conflict” 3/n
.@ODNI_NIC say CC will “exacerbate risks to human &national security force states to make hard choices & trade-offs. The burdens will be unevenly distributed, heightening competition, contributing to instability, straining military readiness, &encouraging political movements” 4/n
“Physical risk events from heatwaves, wildfires, floods & droughts are of particular concern b/c of their potential to impact food security, energy &water infrastructure, as well as lead to business defaults on a scale that the insurance industry would be unable to cope with” 5/n
“direct climate risks will likely drive food insecurity & loss of livelihoods, resulting in displacement of people, &migration pressures… these pressures will likely lead to loss of life, human rights violations, increased pressures on public institutions & infrastructure…” 6/n
“developed countries would likely introduce export bans and people would resort to large-scale hoarding. All this would likely result in a negative feedback loop, amplifying shortages and price increases.” 7/n
Climate breakdown raises the terrifying prospect of simultaneous crop failures “The probability of a synchronous, greater than 10% crop failure across all of the top four maize producing countries is currently near zero, but this rises to around 6.1% each year in the 2040s” 8/n
This means “The probability of a synchronous crop failure of this order during the decade of the 2040s is just less than 50%” !!! 9/n
“by the 2030s, the number of people on the planet exposed to heat stress exceeding the survivability threshold is likely to surpass 10 million a year” !!! 10/n
“By 2040, 3.9 billion people are likely to experience major heatwaves, 12 times more than the historic average.” !!! 11/n
"...increased urban heat islands, combined with reduced water for cooling within thermal power stations, will likely lead to heightened demand &supply shortages... leading to black- and brownouts and ultimately a lack of cooling services, & thus heat stress & mortality" 12/n
The cascading risk most concerning experts: "interconnections between shifting weather patterns, resulting in changes to ecosystems, &the rise of pests &diseases, which combined with heatwaves &drought will likely drive unprecedented crop failure, food insecurity &migration" 13/n
Perhaps most concerning of all is that “If policy ambition, low-carbon technology deployment & investment follow current trends, 2.7°C of warming by the end of this century is likely, relative to pre-industrial temps. A plausible worst case of 3.5°C is possible (10% chance)” 14/n
“If emissions follow the trajectory set by current NDCs, there is a less than 5 per cent chance of keeping temperatures well below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels, and less than 1 per cent chance of reaching the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target.” 15/n
I urge you to read this report yourself & to share it as widely as possible, particularly with political representatives, management teams at your place of work etc.

You can find the full report here:

& a short summary here:
chathamhouse.org/sites/default/… /end

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More from @ThierryAaron

24 Sep
Hi @dpcarrington @guardianeco, I fear this is dangerously over-hyping DAC as a solution & veering into greenwash territory.

Can I ask that you interview some social scientists with a more sober analysis for your next article.
@dpcarrington @guardianeco As @wim_carton et al say it's vital to see NETs such as DAC as a "continuity in the carbon removal discussion and calls for more engagement with existing social science scholarship on the subject."

@dpcarrington @guardianeco @wim_carton We must also be alert as @mclaren_erc et al warn of the tendency towards "exaggerating the expected future contribution of negative emissions in climate models, while also obscuring the extent & pace of the investment needed to deliver negative emissions"

Read 5 tweets
10 Sep
Is climate change going to be worse than expected?

Have scientists been systematically underestimating the impacts?

And if so how should we as science communicators convey this to the public & policy makers?

I delve into this unsettling topic in this 🧵 1/n
(Pic: L. Hogarth)
It’s a topic I’ve been pondering for some time. I wrote this blog post back in 2013 before IPCC’s AR5 report was published.

So what has happened since then? Are scientists still saying things are worse than predicted? 2/n

The evidence certainly seems to point in that direction.

Let’s now turn to look at just a few of the many recent examples of scientists who have pointed this out.

I’ll then explore what is causing this bias and how we can perhaps address it. 3/n
Read 39 tweets
12 Aug
It is increasingly clear that there's now a concerted effort under way in parts of the British press to derail action on the #ClimateEmergency.

This🧵highlights key examples & shows how the main arguments are textbook #ClimateDelay 1/n
Remember, this follows years of the same papers pedalling climate denial. Denial is no longer an option, we’ve entered a new phase of predatory delay as defined by @AlexSteffen... 2/n

A.K.A. - The four-stage strategy concisely explained to Bernard by Sir Humphry and Sir Richard in this clip: 3/n -
Read 41 tweets
9 Jun
I recently watched #BreakingBoundaries on @Netflix and have rather mixed views about it. Here is a short🧵on what I perceived were some of its pros and cons…
First the pros. It is one of the few environmental documentaries that sets out to cover the full breadth of the #EcologicalCrisis we are in. Climate is properly placed as just one of the many extremely serious threats we face from environmental degradation.
This film therefore makes it clear that the question of sustainability is far FAR larger than simply about how we can reduce carbon emissions to net-zero.
Read 20 tweets
31 May
I’m thrilled to announce @CharlieJGardner @RowlandsonWill @JKSteinberger & my new paper in @FrontSustain on the role of universities in facilitating academic advocacy and activism in the climate and ecological emergency. Here's a short🧵on key points 1/n

Scientists have been increasingly trying to raise the alarm about the unfolding environmental emergency. 2/n

Responding to decades of failure & inaction from governments despite ever starker warnings, academics are increasingly joining peaceful civil disobedience movements, the necessity which is set out by @CharlieJGardner & Dr. Claire Wordley 3/n

Read 14 tweets
8 Feb
So I'm trying to get my head around this apparent Damascene conversion @Daily_Express that has UK green groups beside themselves with joy...


@GeorgeMonbiot @JKSteinberger @jasonhickel @samjknights
On face value this is a clear sign of progress, yet another part of UK print news media rejecting climate denial for climate action, but is this 'rehabilitation' really something to celebrate? 2/n
As @AlexSteffen has argued climate denial is facet of "predatory delay" by vested interests designed to undermine climate action. It was never intended to entirely halt climate action, but to slow it for as long as possible. 3/n
Read 14 tweets

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