A big part of my daily reading/writing is about the future (as a strategist, this is what I do). Lately, this is leaving me with a deep feeling of sadness. The MENA lies at the intersection of every bad trend that defines humanity's future yet is not part of the conversation.
Climate change? Water stress? Ecology collapse? Desertification? Food security? Refugee & migrant movements? Economic inequality? Social inequality? Demographic transitions? Mental health? Intergenerational trauma? We're at the nexus of all of them
And yet we're locked out of the conversation because we are led by dictatorships gripped by strategic nihilism, dictators who no longer care about the future of the region, only about the future survival of their power and privilege. They're sending us to hell and we have no say
In real terms, as all of these crises get more serious, and as the world comes together to create new global rules to deal with this, half a billion people living in the MENA will be rule-takers because they are unrepresented at any level local, domestic, regional, or global
It's half a billion people. There's a lot of good among them. A lot of genius, a lot of heart, a lot of passion. Yet we're talked about as a problem to be solved or a threat to be managed. When will we gain our agency, so that we can contribute again to the progress of humanity?
Sometimes I feel like the only right thing that happened in 44 years of my existence was when millions of people took to their streets, tore down the pictures and statues of their dictators, and chanted that they want nothing less than the downfall of their regime.
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I have to admit I am developing a preference for threads because they are compact. There's just *so* much information to consume daily that I no longer have the patience for long-form narrative/storytelling formats (except perhaps as a downtine activity)
For some reason, over the past few weeks I've been fascinated by Flat Earther videos (did quite a number on my Youtube homepage). I guess I should write a bit about what I saw but here's a few quick thoughts
1. It's a modern movement. They aren't holdovers from a previous historical or traditional movement. This tells you something - if this is a modern movement then the reasons it exists are also modern issues
2. They actually *do* seem to obsess over "evidence". Only, they twist it around in a clever way. "Evidence" for them is redefined to "whatever can change my mind" (and since nothing can, then problem solved)
Optimism is not a plan. Anger is not power. Euphoria is not a national vision. Emotions are not a roadmap.
Mental prisons are more oppressive than physical prisons. And the worst prisons are those we build for ourselves
I'm a strategist. My job is to live in the future. To look at the big picture, to see everything as a trend, to think 20 moves ahead (and 20 years ahead). My brain is wired this way now.
Very quick stream of consciousness (again), apologies in advance for all the typos, mistakes, inaccuracies etc. Among Islamist militants there have been (generally) two models:
The Caliphate model calls for the establishment of a global empire (although they'll resent the word "empire"). The Emirate model calls for the establishment of local rule (a state with limited borders) and a governance model, sometimes as the goal, sometimes as a start.
ISIS generally represents the first model. The Taliban represents the second model. ISIS refers to itself as Dawlat al-Khilafa (the Caliphate state). The Taliban's official name for Afghanistan is "the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan".
I think it's time that Middle Eastern activists of a certain... ideological extraction realize that the US politicians will never save you, will never center you, will never exact justice for you, and will never put you first. Piggybacking off another's power is disempowering.
Inherent in their faith (and disappointment) in one US president after another is a belief that the US "rules the world", so all they must do is bend US power, however slightly, to our benefit. But this is based on an antiquated worldview. Even when it wasn't, it never worked.
(I'm tweeting this because something came up on my TL and I did not want to respond directly. Yes this is a subtweet.)