Quick dollar review for the twitter-verse.

1) The dollar is more or less range bound right now. I call this the @amlivemon $DXY range.

Why? He has figured out how the dollar effects EVERYTHING in geopolitics. The dollar spiking up too much is a disaster for the US.

1/5
The dollar going too low is a disaster for the world.

So, what does that mean? The governments of the world are ACTIVELY trying to keep the dollar in the 89-93 range on the $DXY.

2/5
Unfortunately, the Biden administration is not good at its job. It has allowed the $DXY to get up into the 93 range and stay there.

3/5
Meaning that the dollar is now in a slightly higher range until someone competent in DC can get it back down (no, the Fed can't do it on its own).

The dollar may dip below 93 for a bit, but it will start to come back up and may touch 94 before the end of the year.

4/5
If you see me refer to the @amlivemon dollar range, know that I am completely convinced that the geopolitical range that Albert has identified is what REALLY sets the price of the dollar not other factors. If you aren't following the dollar and Albert, you are an idiot.

5/fin

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Confirmation bias

Confirmation bias Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NathanDallon

28 Sep
Does the fed's expansion of the balance sheet constitute money printing?

Lacy Hunt doesn't think so.

A quick thread:

1/18
Dr. Hunt talked about this on May 25th, 2020 on @RealVision in an interview with Kiril Sokoloff about the fed balance sheet expansion.

Hunt's take, not inflationary AND IF IT IS A LITTLE it won't last long at all.



2/18
Hunt highlights that the Fed's purchases of government and agency securities were greater than the cumulative deficits of those two years. The fed basically covered the deficit by a balance sheet expansion.

3/18
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
Read 18 tweets
25 Sep
Dr. Lacy Hunt doesn't care for the consensus regarding inflation, a thread:

US Debt has eroded Real Per Capita GDP. The action by the Fed and Treasury in 2020-2021 hasn't changed that.
M2 money growth did happen due to the combination of Fiscal and Monetary policy, however, that increase in M2 money stock HAS NOT created persistent inflation.

Fed Reserves aren't money and don't leave the financial markets. Fed moves old debt onto its balance sheet.
Read 12 tweets
24 Jun
ITS THE JUNE 2021 STRESS TEST RESULTS!!!!!

A quick thread.

federalreserve.gov/publications/f…

1/9
The purpose of the stress test is to determine
"...whether bank holding companies and U.S. intermediate holding companies with $100 billion or more in total consolidated assets are sufficiently capitalized to absorb losses during a hypothetical recession...

2/9
...ensuring that they can continue to be able to lend to households and businesses."

What does it mean for a bank to be "sufficiently capitalized" you ask? Well, it means the difference between a bank's liabilities (what banks owe)...

3/9
Read 10 tweets
17 Jun
A quick thought on how to reconcile deflation WHEN there are higher prices in the economy.

1/
A) It may be congestion and not inflation.



2/
B) Debt funded central planning ALWAYS means that future spending goes down and current spending goes up. (Thats how bubbles happen).

If the debt isn't productive, then bubbles eventually pop and people are miserable, but as the bubble forms...

professorwerner.org/blog/

3/5
Read 5 tweets
6 May
I had a great time listening to @GeorgeGammon and @SantiagoAuFund most recent conversation regarding the Dollar, Dollar Milkshake, and inflation/deflation.



A few quick thoughts and comments on my part.

1/18
The Dollar Milkshake theory is right. The central idea is the dollar (world reserve currency) will remain strong relative to other currencies for a long time UNTIL it will spike and go REALLY high. This will draw money into US equities and Gold.

2/18
Recently (June 2020 to the present) the dollar has weakened. This has lead some (@HedgeyeTV being the principal voices on twitter lately) to make fun of Brent as being wrong or old or dumb or something.

3/18
Read 18 tweets
14 Apr
Lets talk about the Hoisington Investment Q1 2021 review and outlook shall we?

hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2021Q1N…

Its deflation people.

1/25
1) Inflation is a lagging indicator.

I believe this is a critical observation to incorporate into policy and commercial decision making. From the report:

"The low in inflation occurred after all of the past four recessions...

2/25
"...The low in inflation occurred after all of the past four recessions, with an average lag of almost fifteen quarters from the end of the recessions."

This is an empirical claim that is either true or false. Other economists like @EconguyRosie have confirmed...

3/25
Read 25 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(