1) The dollar is more or less range bound right now. I call this the @amlivemon $DXY range.
Why? He has figured out how the dollar effects EVERYTHING in geopolitics. The dollar spiking up too much is a disaster for the US.
1/5
The dollar going too low is a disaster for the world.
So, what does that mean? The governments of the world are ACTIVELY trying to keep the dollar in the 89-93 range on the $DXY.
2/5
Unfortunately, the Biden administration is not good at its job. It has allowed the $DXY to get up into the 93 range and stay there.
3/5
Meaning that the dollar is now in a slightly higher range until someone competent in DC can get it back down (no, the Fed can't do it on its own).
The dollar may dip below 93 for a bit, but it will start to come back up and may touch 94 before the end of the year.
4/5
If you see me refer to the @amlivemon dollar range, know that I am completely convinced that the geopolitical range that Albert has identified is what REALLY sets the price of the dollar not other factors. If you aren't following the dollar and Albert, you are an idiot.
5/fin
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Hunt highlights that the Fed's purchases of government and agency securities were greater than the cumulative deficits of those two years. The fed basically covered the deficit by a balance sheet expansion.
Dr. Lacy Hunt doesn't care for the consensus regarding inflation, a thread:
US Debt has eroded Real Per Capita GDP. The action by the Fed and Treasury in 2020-2021 hasn't changed that.
M2 money growth did happen due to the combination of Fiscal and Monetary policy, however, that increase in M2 money stock HAS NOT created persistent inflation.
Fed Reserves aren't money and don't leave the financial markets. Fed moves old debt onto its balance sheet.
The purpose of the stress test is to determine
"...whether bank holding companies and U.S. intermediate holding companies with $100 billion or more in total consolidated assets are sufficiently capitalized to absorb losses during a hypothetical recession...
2/9
...ensuring that they can continue to be able to lend to households and businesses."
What does it mean for a bank to be "sufficiently capitalized" you ask? Well, it means the difference between a bank's liabilities (what banks owe)...
3/9
I had a great time listening to @GeorgeGammon and @SantiagoAuFund most recent conversation regarding the Dollar, Dollar Milkshake, and inflation/deflation.
A few quick thoughts and comments on my part.
1/18
The Dollar Milkshake theory is right. The central idea is the dollar (world reserve currency) will remain strong relative to other currencies for a long time UNTIL it will spike and go REALLY high. This will draw money into US equities and Gold.
2/18
Recently (June 2020 to the present) the dollar has weakened. This has lead some (@HedgeyeTV being the principal voices on twitter lately) to make fun of Brent as being wrong or old or dumb or something.
I believe this is a critical observation to incorporate into policy and commercial decision making. From the report:
"The low in inflation occurred after all of the past four recessions...
2/25
"...The low in inflation occurred after all of the past four recessions, with an average lag of almost fifteen quarters from the end of the recessions."
This is an empirical claim that is either true or false. Other economists like @EconguyRosie have confirmed...