Bears repeating today: reformers gain nothing by trying to downplay the homicide spike.
Homicide spiked. A lot.
Yes, not to historic highs. But it was the biggest one-year jump. And it'd have been a huge % change in 1993 too.
Denying this plays into the status quo's hands.
Homicide spiked. A lot.
Yes, not to historic highs. But it was the biggest one-year jump. And it'd have been a huge % change in 1993 too.
Denying this plays into the status quo's hands.
To argue "overall violent crime" fell is almost a literal "... but other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"
Yes, homicide makes up ~3% of all violent crimes. But it is the most emotional and politically salient of all. By far.
If homicide spiked, "crime rose."
Yes, homicide makes up ~3% of all violent crimes. But it is the most emotional and politically salient of all. By far.
If homicide spiked, "crime rose."
To try to downplay this is to give the status quo EXACTLY what it wants.
It suggests that reforms are a luxury to be indulged in only when crime is low--not smarter, better ways to reduce harm.
It betrays a lack of confidence, confidence reformers should have.
It suggests that reforms are a luxury to be indulged in only when crime is low--not smarter, better ways to reduce harm.
It betrays a lack of confidence, confidence reformers should have.
On top of that, most places didn't really make any reforms, and the reforms they did were far less aggressive than they are described.
This was, by and large, a homicide spike that happened on the status quo's watch.
Push on that, rather than downplaying a homicide spike.
This was, by and large, a homicide spike that happened on the status quo's watch.
Push on that, rather than downplaying a homicide spike.
I will add, though, that it is completely legit to point to other crimes for this point.
If you're asking if bail reform caused the homicide spike, we absolutely need to ask then ... did it cause the other crimes to drop? (Prob no for both, mostly.)
If you're asking if bail reform caused the homicide spike, we absolutely need to ask then ... did it cause the other crimes to drop? (Prob no for both, mostly.)
https://twitter.com/ScottHech/status/1442543934278758401?s=20
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