Get quasi-private sector involved to manage project completion with effective credit enhancement to projects. Get some cash into projects to complete them, possibly to push some equity back to Hengda.
Allow Hengda to wind itself down slowly through debt repayment.
It may not happen quickly enough for everyone, but 'progress' which looks like the right people (those who got rich) are suffering pain and the right people(those who bought flats) are being prioritised would go some way to mollify the crowds.
And in the end, I expect China is not prepared to tear it all down. Unless you think China is willing to hit RE prices and GDP very hard, deliberately, one has to conclude there is a lesson being taught. The question is and has been... to whom? and how hard is it being taught?
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Since we recorded that, there have been any number of news stories and developments covered in the SCMP, the FT, WSJ, NYT, and more. They have been informed and relevant.
There have been a few threads by @michaelxpettis and commentary by @niubi well worth reading.
There has been recent news which deserves a bit more nuanced treatment because it looks, as of today, we may be getting a resolution sooner rather than later, which is only a little surprising.
Development #1: Sep contract sales have, it appears, fallen through the floor.
Year-End Comments from An Independent Analyst (Thread)
1) Buy side does not make sufficient use of external expertise.
I publish research on events, special sits, catalyst-driven situations (which will include fundamentals) on @smartkarma and I note lots of HFs and LOs
(2/n) which do "fundamental" (whether "growth" or "value" biased) ignore the alpha available from special sits. They may not "do risk arb" but when a situation shows up on a portfolio name, they should understand how to best exit/play. They tend to think proprietary info about
(3/n) how/why they got IN for fundamental reasons gives them an edge on the non-predicted special sit. That's wrong.
The entire job of special sits players is to make money because others (those who do not respect the special sit) decide to trade at the "wrong price."
On 30 May 2019, I wrote about Sanyo Chemical (4471 JP) and Nippon Shokubai (4114 JP) as a Guess-The-Ratio trade. I liked both companies, but one wanted to buy Sanyo Chem cheap (1/n)
(2/n) I recommended trading the range, buying the 4471/4114 ratio at 0.75 and possibly shorting it at 0.95.
(3/n): The summer passed and Sanyo Chem underperformed despite being cheaper, but as also noted in the first insight, Silchester was building a position in Shokubai. When it got to 0.75 in July 2019, that was time to buy.
Nippon Shokubai downgraded its forecast at end-Jul2019
Locally it is sometimes referred to as the "Nikkei Dow" because it is price-weighted, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Started many decades ago, the index was started by taking 225 stocks, adding up all the prices, and then
dividing by a DIVISOR to get to the index level on Day 1.
A stock's weight was price divided by the sum.
When one stock is taken out and replaced with another, you change the divisor on that day to make it the same as it would have been had the stock going out remained in.
All this was fine until Japan changed its Companies Act and decided that when a new company was formed, each share had a par value of ¥500 rather than the longtime value of ¥50.
That meant when a stock listed, it had fewer shares outstanding but a higher price. That meant the
Another one really nicely called by Janaghan Jeyakumar @smartkarma. He called for investors to buy Gremz (3150 JP) at ¥1609 or better due to the tachiaigai bunbai event in third week of September. That was <¥1600.