🧵2/n To my knowledge, my kids haven’t been infected with #SARSCoV2 - but I’ve accepted that they probably will at some point because of where we live (US)
🧵3/n So then my decision is whether I’d like that first infection to be in a naive immune system or in one already primed by vaccination for a quicker immune response
🧵4/n Also, I like the idea of knowing exactly when they are having their first immune response to #SARSCoV2 so I can watch for any symptoms and have a date for them to be able to reconstruct this aspect of their medical histories
🧵5/n One thing I notice in the debates over kids and this vaccine is failure to consider the full range of counterfactual scenarios if one doesn’t get vaccinated as a child
🧵6/n Lots of the conversation assumes that the only risks to compare are infection in childhood vs vaccination in childhood
🧵7/n But, when I consider risks of not vaccinating my kids, I weight the possibility that they *wouldn’t* get infected as kids, that they’d slip through #SARSCoV2 infection as children - and get their first infection as immune-naive adults
🧵8/n #LongCovid reminds me that many infectious diseases that are typically mild in school-aged children
& with extremely low vax risk
can have unexpectedly bad effects in adults who’ve never been vaxxed or infected earlier. I always think of FDR en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paralytic…
🧵9/n And then there’s weird things like Shingles where previous infection gets reactivated much later in life. No, thank you, to that either. If I can cut the risk of something like that possibly happening by getting them vaxxed early, I want to do that cdc.gov/shingles/about…
🧵9/n And, if my kids were already infected, but so mildly that never noticed, I still think vax is a good idea bc I want them to have a better “shot”* at enduring, longterm protection
*see what I did there? 😄
🧵10/n I am *NOT* an immunologist.
I hope some experts jump in the thread and correct me about things I’m missing or misunderstanding.
And I’ll highlight that for others.
Just trying to think all this through ahead of time for my family
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2/ Re: p-hacking: I was really lucky to learn about dangers of p-hacking/selective reporting/publication bias early when I took Charlie Poole’s meta-analysis class in my MSPH at @UNCSPHResearch
Seeing the funnel plot assymetry in study estimates was powerful!
3/ We even published this study 👇🏾 years later.
If I’d known how much work it was going to be, I may not have done it! But I was young & energetic & totally in love with Epi Methods 😍…
1/ This article does a good job presenting several foundational public health tenets that I’ve felt frustration at not communicating earlier and better:
A disease that hurts a small % of a huge population can hurt a LOT of people
Small increases in risk for a person can seem relatively inconsequential but still have big, longterm effects on a large group of people
3/ It’s a mind-bending way of thinking that I see people grappling w in real time re: COVID
That self-learning is cool to watch from a teaching & learning perspective but scary when critical decision-making depends on understanding the implications of this seeming contradiction
🧵2/10 This quote from @oni_blackstock (starts with “In our community…”) especially hit powerfully. I’ve rarely felt my experience of the pandemic articulated with such precision. bit.ly/3DikPP3
🧵3/10 Scholars like @JessicaCalarco have done beautiful work describing the key role that US women play as “family health managers” and how the pressure of that role has often translated into vaccine skepticism, etc, especially among White politically conservative women in US
These scientific-sounding lies lowered rates of vaccine uptake & NPI. After all, prominent people said everyone already had protection from infection & cross-reactivity w other viruses
🧵 3/ In India & the rest of South Asia now, we see that words matter, that scientific-sounding distortions of reality matter
I remain enraged & heart-broken bc that scale of outbreak absolutely didn’t have to happen in a vaccine-exporting & scientifically rich country in 2021
1/ Good overview of challenges of doing “big data” health care research in US. For instance, nice description of basic pros and cons of insurance claims vs #EHR health care records
2/ But the article has a prematurely triumphant tone at the beginning (and in the default Twitter tagline). N3C is great but limited, as the article does make clear
3/ And it’s not totally novel. But the novelty to me is that it’s
a non-“federated”* model
*not* run by for-profit companies,
so the data are accessible to the public for analysis
1/ For those wondering what the heck is happening in North Carolina, it’s a foreseeable train wreck that left the station in December 2016
(I could go back further to 2010, but let’s stay focused on state boards for now) npr.org/sections/thetw…
2/ In 2016, Republicans won NC’s electoral votes for US presidency and kept control of the gerrymandered state legislature (“surgical precision”, the Appeals court said).
But Dem Roy Cooper won the governorship…
3/ So fine, it would be split-party control (which lots of people prefer as an affirmative good)…