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28 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
[28/9 update] I'm switching to a log scale today, partly because of the scale of the numbers (the rate for 10-14s is now > 1400/100k) and because this makes the trends easier to see: growth is slowing in 10-14s, but is increasingly apparent among those in 40s and adjacent ages.
If you're suspicious of log scales, or just want to compare, here's the same plot on a linear scale.
And here's the animated version (log scale).
As @sezarsky points out, rates in 10-14s will still be growing in many places -- the slowing reflects the overall picture for Engand.

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Colin Davis Profile picture
28 Sep
Yes, I understand that not all adults in their 40s are parents of 10-14 year olds (the dashboard data doesn't list parental status, sadly). And that some 20-29s and 55-64s are parents of 10-14s (though not that many). But I hope you can see what I'm driving at in this plot.
Reasonable people can disagree about both the meaning and the import of the extremely high infection rate that we're currently seeing in children. I'm not interested in arguing with people who want to say I'm alarmist.
I'll just note that, *given the scale of the numbers*, the following things can simultaneously be true:

1. Most children who get Covid will experience a relatively mild illness AND a large number of children will have long-lasting symptoms, some very serious.
Read 6 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
26 Sep
One of the points of contention about Covid transmission (for reasons I find hard to understand) has been whether children infect other members of the household, e.g., their parents. The question's a bit more interesting now that most parents are vaccinated. (1/4)
Although one can't provide definitive evidence by looking at Covid rates, it is at least possible to test a simple prediction that follows from a model in which children get infected at school and then infect their parents. (2/4)
In particular (all things equal):

a) increases in rates among children should precede those among adults, and
b) increases in rates among adults of parental age should precede those of other adults.

(3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
27 Aug
Here we go again [LONG THREAD].

First we had “behavioural fatigue”. Now JCVI is invoking the notion of “vaccination fatigue” to explain falls in childhood immunisation.

theguardian.com/society/2021/a…
You might recall that “behavioural fatigue” was a previously unheard of phenomenon invoked by government advisers (chiefly Chris Whitty, it seems) to justify their (mistaken) belief that the public would not comply with lockdowns that lasted more than a couple of weeks.
In response, a large group of behavioural scientists signed an open letter asking for the evidence for this alleged phenomenon that they’d never heard of. (They never received an answer).

behavioralscientist.org/why-a-group-of…
Read 23 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
2 Aug
The minister for education is very keen for children to learn Latin. So here’s a thread with some Latin that I’d like @GavinWilliamson to learn. (All Latin etymology via etymonline.com).

An easy one for starters:

1)Virus. Latin for “poison”.
2)Transmission. From Latin transmittere "send across, cause to go across, transfer, pass on," from trans "across, beyond" + mittere "to release, let go; send, throw"
3)Mitigation. From the Latin mitigatus, past participle of mitigare "soften, make tender, ripen, mellow, tame," figuratively, "make mild or gentle, pacify, soothe".
Read 11 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
31 Jul
Order has been restored, and the link between cases and hospital admissions seems to be re-established. But this still leaves the puzzle of what happened in the middle of July, when cases and admissions briefly became unstuck. Image
On this graph, the black line shows the number of cases we'd expect, based on the number of (subsequent) admissions. The actual number fits the prediction (postdiction, technically) very nicely, except in the circled area. Image
The puzzle isn't what caused the spike. Pretty much everyone seems happy to lay the blame on football (people watching in groups indoors).

The puzzle is twofold:

1) Why didn't the case spike produce an admissions spike?
2) How did the spike dissipate so quickly without a trace?
Read 7 tweets
Colin Davis Profile picture
23 Jul
My TL is absolutely full of people who look at this graph and *still* want to say “the link is broken” or “the link has weakened” or “the jury is out”. So let me have another go at explaining a distinction that confuses some people (and is wilfully abused by others). [THREAD]
Of course vaccines have reduced the proportion of cases that lead to hospitalisation. I'm not denying that. I've published research about how important it is that we talk about the high efficacy of COVID vaccines, because this could increase vaccine uptake.bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
That research is published in the British Journal of Health Psychology (it's open access, so you can read it). bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

There's a short summary in the @ConversationUK . theconversation.com/vaccines-for-c…

So yes -- VACCINES WORK!
Read 22 tweets

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