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Francis - Analyst Profile picture
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28 Sep, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Saul Rosenthal: A great who from 1989-2007 averaged 32% returns compared to the market’s 12%.

Now lives off his portfolio, a few advice based on excerpts from an article 5-years ago:
1/ Contrarian mindset & Market Timing:
2/ Portfolio Sizing and Concentrated bets:
3/ Eliminate Ego & Pride:

Admit when you are wrong and be quick. This is huge.
4/4 Final:

Fantastic piece! Source: chrisreining.com/saul-rosenthal/

I just recently learned about Saul - does anyone here know him or heard about his style?

Anyways, some great advice from him!
PS/ Tagging a few people familiar with MF:

I don't know much about Mootley Fool, but I'd love to hear thoughts. What was the best advice or gem you learned from his style?
@StockNovice , @EugeneNg_VCap @GauchoRico @dhaval_kotecha
Thanks guys!
Saul's Board for Any Investor Interested:

boards.fool.com/sauls-investin…

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More from @InvestiAnalyst

Francis - Analyst Profile picture
27 Sep
Cloud Adoption is still in early Innings:

Amazon AWS continues to lead, at roughly 23% Cloud adoption rates -there is run for small hyper scalers.

As at Q2 2021, global cloud infrastructure revenues amounted to $50B+

I've started a position in $DOCN in Portfolio 2:
Next 1/3 ImageImage
2/ I've got high expectations for $DOCN

As at TTM: $366M,

Last 4-Qtr's of *accelerating* growth
+ 24%
+ 26%
+ 29%
+ 35%
QoQ Growth: 10%

Ops Income Past 4'Q's:
-17%
2%
-8%
2%
34%

EBITDA Margins: 22% in 2019 > 30% in 2021

FCF: 14%

At EV/S of 22x, this is fair.
3/ $DOCN appears to have carved out a niche in a 150B market. Many customers rave about the ease of adoption.

This is in my Port-2. Next Qtr, if growth doesn't exceed 34% YoY in Revs or ARR's and customer count doesn't exceed 610K - I'm out.

I'm long as long as the thesis holds
Read 4 tweets
Francis - Analyst Profile picture
27 Sep
Major Technology Trends based on Executives & Venture Money published by Mckinsey Today: *Read the full below

I'm long & bullish:
1. $PLTR (Applied AI, ML)
2. $PATH (Next-Gen Automation)
3. $CRWD (Cyber-risk)
4. $ZS & $NET (Trust Architecture)

We're still in early innings!
McKinsey Tech Trends Index:

Mapping based on some of these technology maturities and industry/corporate adoption.

The next decade of technological progress will be mind-blowing.

See excerpts from the report below o
By 2022, 70% of companies will employ hybrid or multicloud-management technologies, tools, & processes, which are the hallmarks of distributed IT infrastructures.
Read 8 tweets
Francis - Analyst Profile picture
22 Sep
There is an Emergence of Canadian Tech Companies beyond these leaders:

$SHOP (eCommerce)
$LSPD (Payments)
$DCBO (Enterprise Learning)
$MAGT.TO (Security)
$NVEI (Cross-border Payments)

A Briefing thread on the Canadian tech ecosystem and funnel:
2/ I've done a write-up on most of the top Canadian names:

First was $DCBO Docebo in January. An enterprise learning company accelerating its growth rate, customer adoption and a leader in LMS systems. Stock has been crazy!

investianalystnewsletter.substack.com/p/docebo-inc-l…
3/ $NVEI.TO: Global electronic payment processor. They have a proprietary platform that offers direct connections to all major payment cards.

They solve payment issues for complex transactions in over 150 different currencies using 450 payment methods.
investianalystnewsletter.substack.com/p/nuvei-corpor…
Read 15 tweets
Francis - Analyst Profile picture
10 Sep
Portfolio Holdings as of Sept 10: (As Earnings wraps up)

$UPST - 19
$CRWD- 16
$AFRM- 10
$UPWK - 9
$PLTR - 9
$NET- 7.5
$APPS - 4
$CFLT - 3.5
$WELL.TO - 3
$PATH - 2
$AGC (Grab) - 1

+ Organic growth of the portfolio especially $AFRM & $UPST
+ Invested: 85%
+ Cash: 15%

Thread 1/
2/
 Portfolio 2: (Balanced/Slightly conservative Portfolio):

$SE - 19%
$AMD - 18%
$ZIM - 13%
$CRWD
$ZS
$CTS.TO
$FCX
$STLD
$LC
$EXPI

Invested: 87%
Cash: 13%
Criteria for this portfolio is primarily quants, profitability and high cash-flow companies.
3/
 Actions:
+ New Buy: $CFLT in my core A/C
+ Increased allocation to $SE & $ZIM post earnings
+ Temporal Exits of $ETSY $SOFI $CARE.TO $LMND.
+ For $ETSY & $SOFI - Growth has significantly slowed down, there are a few metrics I'll track in Q4 for both to re-purchase.
Read 12 tweets
Francis - Analyst Profile picture
8 Sep
Welcome $CFLT - A New shareholder!

Brief Thesis
- #1 leading open-source platform
- 80% market-share among F-500
- A centralized event-streaming for Data
- Top Founder-Led
- Going to be an important tool in the future of ML/AI!

This is my first new stock-buy in over 5-months! Image
Sold $LMND- Owned since IPO @ $54, so this was a good profit. I like LMND but $CFLT is more dominant

This is a tracker buy in my core Acct after DD. Valuation is high, but hoping to add more LT

I have more info about $CFLT, so I'll share a future thread!
Guys, any experience using A- Kafta as part of your ETL or production on software deployments? @clueless_1337 @FrankYanWang
Read 4 tweets
Francis - Analyst Profile picture
7 Sep
$PATH Reports AH today - I'm slightly neutral:

These are street consensus:
+ Q3 2021 Rev: $185M (Roughly 35%+ growth) on EPS of -$0.06
+ FY 2021: 855M

My expectations based on my thesis:
+We should see Q3 $190M and FY Guide of $900M.

Below is a quick thread on my preview: 1/
2/
 For the 4th year in a row, $PATH was named a leader within the RPA & Automation market. A difficult feat to achieve in a competitive industry!

I want this Gartner review to show a correlation to revenues, but I am aware, they gave a low guidance in Q2
3/ Better breakdown of Revenue:

ARR Revenue Growth and Quarterly Recognised Revenue continues to be very tricky with $PATH. Investors need to rmbr to focus on ARR

It's hard to differentiate between their Cloud and On-Prem revenue.
I hope they provide some clarity on this call.
Read 6 tweets

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