Thread by @srdjancvijic

A 🧵about a confusing signals on 🇪🇺 enlargement to the #WesternBalkans 👇

1⃣ During her ongoing #WB6 tour @vonderleyen is sending clear messages of hope, to 🇲🇰"You will be part of the EU, It is not a question of if, but when", to 🇦🇱"as future EU member, I also want Albania to fully take part in the Conference on the future of Europe"

2⃣Yet a @Reuters piece, quoting unnamed 4 🇪🇺 diplomats, wrote "fearing a political backlash in member states, [EU] can no longer agree to give a guarantee of future membership to the six Balkan countries" reuters.com/world/europe/e…

3⃣Regardless of the gossip by these 4 horsemen of the enlargement apocalypse, we all knew that despite the fact that a vast majority of 🇪🇺 supports future membership of the #WB6 some member states, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, are reticent.

4⃣In 2019, in Paris, at the time 🇫🇷&🇳🇱were blocking the opening of the accession talks with 🇦🇱🇲🇰,a high ranking MP from the ruling 🇫🇷 #LREM party said France cannot support the opening because it would lose votes in the then upcoming EP elections europeanwesternbalkans.com/2019/02/13/wes…

5⃣In 2020/21 with @d_part we tested this thinking within #LREM and we proved that, yes superficially French are against enlargement to #WB6 but that this issue is not important to them and that it would not influence their voting behavior. @BalkanInsight
balkaninsight.com/2021/02/01/sup…

6⃣If you are not subscribed to BI here is my older thread about France and #WB6 enlargement (history, politics, geopolitics and public surveys)

https://twitter.com/srdjancvijic/status/1356504706550538240?s=20

7⃣Regardless our research proves them wrong, same French politicians have been repeating exactly the same tune this summer: pushing enlargement would hurt us in the elections
Here at the @PrespaForum
@ZoranNechev moderated the debate

8⃣So either they did not read our report, in which case they should and we are here for them, or electoral card is a "polite" way of sending another message to 🇩🇪🇮🇹 and all other 🇪🇺 states that support enlargement. But which message would that be?

9⃣If it's "no enlargement before deepening of the Union" fine, we have the new accession methodology, but it doesn't work. 🇧🇬's veto of 🇲🇰 is a case in point. To overcome this we need #QMV, Commission has proposed it for other FP areas in 2018, but what does Paris think about it?

🔟Others suggested ways how to reinvigorate enlargement @rumeliobserver @adicerimagic through opening the single market to the #WB6 esiweb.org/proposals/open… and @CEPS_thinktank @StevenBlockmans through staged enlargement cep.org.rs/wp-content/upl…

1⃣1⃣ Beyond Paris, the Hague, but maybe Copenhagen and some other more discreet EU capitals, also fear a "political backlash" if they appear supportive of enlargement. But do they actually know what their electorate thinks about it and would this matter to them?

1⃣2⃣Germany has been sending a clear message , "Europe will only be truly united when all the countries of the Western Balkans join the EU". Finishing the job started in 1989 has to be done, but how to translate this into member state politics?
politico.eu/article/german…

1️⃣3️⃣ 1st is geopolitics: Our research shows most convincing pro-WB enlargement argument in France is that it would make Europe stronger and more united, 43% of participants of our focus groups changed their opinion on enlargement from - to +because of it, including the hard right