Tipping points are large transitions to new system equilibriums. Antarctic sheet disintegration and the mass flooding of coastal cities, the destabilisation of the South American monsoon system, collapse of Amazon rainforest resilience, coral reef death ...
... the disintegration of the entire pattern of water flow throughout the oceans of the world. Rachel Warren, Nik Boers, Sebastian Rosier, Levke Caesar, at the #COP26Universities network Climate Risk Summit, exploring tipping points.
Nik Boers describes how comprehensive Earth system models can now be complemented and constrained by observation of statistical early warning signals, particularly the phenomenon of critical slowing down: variance and autocorrelation indicate a coming tipping point.
Levke Caesar on AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), a system whose stability may well be overestimated by climate models. AMOC is likely to weaken, perhaps substantially. Huge consequences including lost rainfall and increased winter storms in various regions ...
An interesting question around the interactions between tipping elements. The brief answer is, as you might have guessed, the tipping order makes a huge difference, and it's incredibly complex & uncertain. (My personal view: They will all cancel out, we're going to be fine!!!)
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