Excited for Day 2 of the #COP26Universities Climate Summit. First up, Kirstie Ebi, Professor of Global Health, University of Washington, on "melting humans" (that's my summary, not hers) ... 
... yesterday we heard the projection that we are headed to ten million deaths by heatwaves per year by the 2030s. chathamhouse.org/2021/09/climat…
Already about 30% of heat-related deaths are attributable to anthropogenic climate change. And of course it's unevenly distributed
(It feels weird to say a talks is "wonderful" when the content is so devastating. It's almost like, if you can summon up the affect to be mildly upbeat about lucidity, the message hasn't quite got through ...)
One of the references from the compound dry-hot extreme events thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Very rich talk from @SamuelSutanto1. I was especially intrigued by questions around the intersection between early warning systems and compound events and cascades, and tools for integrating different kinds of knowledge (e.g. Indigenous expertise and metereological data)
An early warning platform that was referenced: anywhere-h2020.eu/services/multi…
Andrew Kruczkiewicz on anticipatory action. What anticipatory action should be taken -- who is responsible, and who is accountable for such action?Humanitarian orgs are pivoting to pre-defined triggers for structured action, including funding disbursed before a disaster impact.
Although there is a lot of work being done in this area, there is not yet much focused on compound events, and practically none on compound hot-dry events. A call to action. "What does anticipatory action look like for compound hot-dry events?" - @wxpizza #COP26Universities
See also ... agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.10…
And pnas.org/content/118/19… "we are at a critical juncture, faced with a need and responsibility to redesign institutions to be proactive, agile, and socially just when confronted with increasingly likely compound risks" #COP26Universities #COP26
Ross Thompson of Extreme Events and Health Protection Unit, Public Health England, discussing the Heatwave Plan for England gov.uk/government/pub…
Session ends with an important point: "participatory" has to mean more than a seat at the table. Just because local voices are being included, for example, doesn't mean they're being listened to and reflected in policy. We have to rethink the way we integrate voices.
& of course I agree! Some of that rethinking has been done -- it's long been clear that any stakeholder engagement process that doesn't distribute real decision-making power in advance will be deeply limited. Maybe we should talk less about participation, more about democracy?
Now kicking off the Cities Infrastructure Resilience segment. Catherine Pearce (@ClimaReadyClyde), Cristina Argudo and Matheus Ortega (@c40cities), and Nam Fuoongnan (Klinova), chaired by Andy Kerr and organised by Katherine Maxwell ...
Glasgow City Region’s first Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan climatereadyclyde.org.uk/adaptation-str…
Hanoi is one member of the C40 network of cities. Hanoi is a high density, high economic growth city, and one where a lot of government buildings are located. Climate vulnerabilities include proximity to river and sea, in the context of increased storms and heavy rains.
Current recommendations: Developing public transport, bike sharing, restricting motorbike use, upgrading drainage system, rehabilitating reservoirs, improving clean water, increasing green spaces, upgrading medical stations, updating forest fire prevention & firefighting resource
In November 26, it rained 170mm in three hours (equivalent to 25% of London's annual precipitation). But there is a strong Civil Defense system of early warning: text messages etc. Nobody died.
Hearing now from Matheus Ortega about Salvador, Brazil, where a third of the population lives in informal (and technically illegal) housing.
A really clear example of how climate change mitigation and resilience is fundamentally fused with anti-racism. The black dots in the central map represent landslides. The blue areas in the right hand map are where the white people live.
* On November 26, 2019
Discussion exploring synergies between mitigation and adaptation. How do we bring down emissions in ways that also build resilience to climate risks? One example: BRT lines developed in Salvador (not sure, but it sounds like grassroots pressure may have been a key factor)
Matheus talking about improving data management, especially considering informal settlements, as a way of strengthening adaptation management ... and the city's knowledge about itself being a way to push back against a narrow economic filter that leaves out the most under-served
Funders love numbers to justify putting their money into projects. But some of the most important knowledge is qualitative, not quantitative. Perhaps we do need new metrics, more numbers ... but also funding more responsive to different kinds of qualitative knowledge.
Catherine with the reminder that the term adaptation (and by extension mitigation, resilience etc.) is not part of people's everyday language and thinking.
🌳 How do we avoid green gentrification? Residents are often quite rightly apprehensive about trees being planted in their neighbourhoods.
Finally, questions around sharing knowledge, and global collaboration and practical solidarity among cities. There are thousands of cities around the world that need to mitigate and adapt.
Cristina and Nam both emphasing data sharing, but also not waiting for perfect data. Matheus and Catherine mentions how innovative and novel solutions can engage socially and imaginatively, and push city-to-city engagement. Catherine adds: be more honest about the failures.
In the 'Communicating the Impacts of Uncertainty when Modelling Coastal Flooding' session, simulation of future coastal flooding hazards.
Sanne Muis on sources of uncertainty: data input errors; model errors; scenario uncertainty; large internal variability; extreme value analysis; inter-model differences. Some uncertainties can be constrained, others must be accepted.
Visualising sea level rise under two different scenarios
Now exploring the extent and limitation of the existing coastal monitoring infrastructure, and exploring real time information as well as model validation. How to integrate nowcasting? And how do waves actually overtop sea defences? -- it's rare to get observations in the field.
Some results from the audience poll. Charlotte agrees, but also suggests that -- though we may not always like to admit it -- the 5%s may have a bit of a point!
In situ images submitted by citizen scientists - how can that kind of information be integrated into wave overtopping models?
A word cloud revealing some of the diversity of the audience here -- We have some people interested in estuaries, for example.
I've been spamming questions and one finally got through! It was *cringe* about interdisciplinary collaboration with the arts and humanities. Overall vibe from panel: Would like to explore it more. And a shout out to Climate Stories project climatestories.org.uk
Cascading uncertainty, and the problem that uncertainty might completely overwhelm any message. It is helpful to draw out specific examples from across the uncertainty distribution.
Experience suggests that maps are used in very different ways. E.g. global modelling of extremes: users always look to their own local patch and say, "This map must be wrong."
Exploring the use of historic precedents as one approach for communicating climate risk ... especially when extreme weather events are within living memory.
Is the word "uncertainty" fit for purpose?
It often takes expertise just to know where to go to seek the data.
Now asking about whether "return period" is fit for purpose, and its different nuances across deterministic vs. risk-based modelling, where variables are integrated into a single consequence variable. More clarity about deterministic vs. risk approaches would be helpful.
Betting odds are faairly well understood, so perhaps return periods could be glossed with betting odds metaphors?
Sounds like an interesting point (if I understood correctly) about how coastal adaptation itself can generate new forms of uncertainty.
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