The use of a acquitted conduct at sentencing actually strikes me as a legally tricky issue that raises intriguing questions.

Why is it (Fed) constitutionally okay? Because the burdens of proof are different at trial than sentencing, and “acquitted” doesn’t mean “innocent.”
For guilt/innocence, state gotta prove everything beyond a reasonable doubt. But for sentencing, the (constitutional) rules mostly go away (30,000-tweet thread on Blakely omitted here).

Totally fine to, say, sentence based on something found by a preponderance.

So: “acquitted.”
“Acquitted” doesn’t = “innocent.” It means “not proven beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Over course of trial, judge may come to think ~60% likely def is guilty. That’s not BRD, but it is preponderance.

So okay for sentencing, given our rules.
So what makes acquitted conduct worse than all the other stuff judges look at without criticism?

In fact, acquitted conduct may be the BEST VETTED compared to much stuff that may appear in a presentencing report.

If acquitted conduct bother us, so should A LOT of OTHER stuff.
Conversely, if we are basically cool w how information makes it into sentencing—where our thoughts abt error costs differ from the guilt phase—then the problems w acquitted conduct are harder to see.

It’s … an intriguing issue.

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More from @JohnFPfaff

30 Sep
From 1960-80, annual murders rose ~14K, from ~9K to ~23K, and we invested SO MUCH in prisons and punishment in response.

From 1999-2019, drug OD deaths rose by ~54K, from ~17K to ~71K. Prelim CDC data says ODs will jump ~20K JUST in 2020.

Nowhere near the political response. ImageImage
Both target the young--from 1999-2019, those under 40 account for ~80% of the years of life lost to homicide, and ~60% of years of life lost to drug overdoses.

But drug ODs cost those under 40 1.34 million years of life lost, vs. 650K for homicide. More than twice as much.
To be clear, homicide has collateral costs that drug ODs do not--like the recent paper that simply hearing a gunshot within a few blocks does real harms to children.

But both are sudden and traumatic and tear apart families' lives.
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep
I've seen a bunch of tweets today abt how we spend $x per person on Rikers.

That's not how jail/prison finance math works. At Rikers, think ~90% of spending is wages and benefits. Which means total spending is fairly insensitive to population, and it isn't "going to" detainees.
It also means as jail pops fall, spending-per-person-in-jail will almost axiomatically rise, because unless we lay off staff, we'll be spending the same amount, just... per fewer ppl held there.

It's important to stop talking abt jail/prison spending in "per detainee" terms.
Talking about "spending per person in jail/prison" misleads ppl abt where the money is going (wages, not programming), and also means we grossly overstate the savings we hope for when cutting back prison/jail pops (since total spending won't move absent LABOR, not pop, cuts).
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
Bears repeating today: reformers gain nothing by trying to downplay the homicide spike.

Homicide spiked. A lot.

Yes, not to historic highs. But it was the biggest one-year jump. And it'd have been a huge % change in 1993 too.

Denying this plays into the status quo's hands.
To argue "overall violent crime" fell is almost a literal "... but other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?"

Yes, homicide makes up ~3% of all violent crimes. But it is the most emotional and politically salient of all. By far.

If homicide spiked, "crime rose."
To try to downplay this is to give the status quo EXACTLY what it wants.

It suggests that reforms are a luxury to be indulged in only when crime is low--not smarter, better ways to reduce harm.

It betrays a lack of confidence, confidence reformers should have.
Read 5 tweets
24 Sep
Intriguing data point of the night.

In 2016 Survey of Prison Inmates, of those serving time for a VIOLENT crime that is NOT homicide or rape:

• 62% claim NO ONE was physically hurt
• 21% admit serious injury (death/rape/stab/shot/broken bones)
• 17% admit minor injury
According to the BJS prisoner count, there are ~350,000 ppl in for violence other than rape or homicide (SPI-16 est is 375K, so... close).

That would be over 200,000 ppl in prison for violence who claim to have hurt no one.

Further complicates "violence" as a category.
Of course, these are self-reports, which are always noisy and messy.

Still, even if we assume some desire to downplay harms, still suggests many in prison for violence didn't cause physical harm (betting a lot are robberies).

(Of course, psych/emotional harm matters too.)
Read 6 tweets
21 Sep
One more detail here. I've seen ppl outraged at the DA over this bond. That... may not be the case here.

PA rules vary by county, but believe this is a county where the initial bail decision can be made by the arresting officer and the judge... alone.

No DA. No def lawyer.
It's a crazy rule. The cop and the judge (all too often likely a former DA) get to set the initial bail with no lawyers present.

There eventually has to be a hearing with lawyers, but believe that can be up to two weeks later.

Two weeks in jail. That's big.
Imagine a county where the DA doesn't want to prosecute minor stuff anymore, but the police and former-ADAs-turned-judges do.

They can effectively create two-week sentences for offenses that consistently get dropped by the DA.

That could be all they wanted in the first place!
Read 4 tweets
20 Sep
I just can't.

$50,000 bond imposed on a homeless man who almost certainly made a mistake (and thus didn't break the law) when he thought over OVERpaid for a Mountain Dew but inadvertently underpaid by 43¢.

And got arrested for it by the STATE police.

pennlive.com/news/2021/09/m…
As article points out, felony theft in PA requires intent: he had to INTEND to stiff the store.

The DA has to prove this *beyond a reasonable doubt*. The sign said "2 for $3." He paid $2 for ONE.

I can't imagine a DA who could win this one at trial.

Still: a **$50,000 bond**
The state would lose this case for sure if it goes to trial.

But that $50K bond? Now the man's in jail. Bet he gets a misdemeanor "time served" plea offer to go home that day. Does it take it? Or does he languish longer in prison and have toroll the dice on SEVEN YRS in prison?
Read 11 tweets

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