Ive obsessed over this stock shit for years, and all those years of research, tracking, observing and trading have shown me that there are 5 undeniable and timeless truths about traders (smart money vs dumb money).
Here are the top 5 facts, use those to sharpen your trading:
🎖1 - Discipline
Starting with the most obvious one, if u already read my tweets.
Smart money are knowledgeable & disciplined.
Dumb money are (contrary to popular belief) knowledgeable enough to make money, they just dont have the discipline to STICK to what they KNOW works.
⌚ 2- Doomed to fail
Dumb money are only patient when they're losing. In short, they take profits on winners WAY too fast, but hold on to losers WAY too long. small winners, HUGE losers.
Smart money spend little time on losing trades but milk the FUCK out of winning trades.
📈 3 - Always late to the party
Dumb money buy the highs of parabolic moves and sell the lows of capitulations.
Smart money does the EXACT opposite & take profits (or short) at the top of breakouts & buy the bottom of panics. Simply put, dumb $$ fill the orders of smart money.
And this brings us to point 4
🤼♂️ 4 - Balance
For every buyer there must be a seller. This is common sense. Supply vs Demand. Therefore, smart money & dumb money CANNOT be on the same side of the trade. If EVERYONE is long, THEY ARE SHORT. if EVERYONE is short, they MUST be long
This is SO simple yet so many ppl fail to grasp this: It's not about being right on the direction of the stock, it's about being on the RIGHT team. B/c u can be right about the direction, but if dumb $ joins u on that trade, smart $ HAS to move the stock in the opposite direction
📊5- Indicators & timeframes
Dumb 💵 use small timeframes & endless indicators
Smart 💵 use large timeframes & few indicators (the big picture)
Dumb 💵 focus on price 1st. Smart 💵 focus on volume & liquidity 1st, price 2nd. b/c they know that price cannot move without volume
An example of this can be seen in the type of questions smart vs dumb money ask themselves when looking at a stock
Dumb 💵: "what's the price? what's my beef jerky indicator doing? what about the superswole indicator? what's that one doing? fuck it the stock is going up, im in"
Meanwhile Smart 💵 looks at the same stock & ask:
who's currently long the stock?
who's short?
who's trapped with size & is most likely to panic or get margin called?
how much demand is on the bids & below?
how much supply (or dilution) can be expected?
what's the avg range? etc
Now of course, smart money also has access to inside information and a bunch of other shit that YOU or the avg joe doesnt have access to, so that gives them an "unfair" advantage. But that's PRECISELY why ur job is to simply follow their footsteps and stop trying to be a hero.
Anyway I promised i'd stop at the top 5 facts, so the thread ends here. I can share the rest of the differences between the 2 groups, but those 5 differences are the most drastic.
So study yourself & ALWAYS make sure u're not the sucker at the poker table
Honestly 1 of the reasons I want to spend less time in front of screens is simple. There is NO END to this game. Uwill NEVER be satisfied no matter how much 💵u make. And the more 💵u make, the LESS that 💵means to u, so u endup increasing size endlessly just to get the same rush
When u're a beginner trader, making ur first $100 in 1 day feels like the best day of ur life. U're excited & want to tell everyone.
Fast forward 1 year later and making $5K in 1 day feels like the worst day of ur life b/c that's ACTUALLY a day where u underperformed.
Then add another year & u see where this is going. Eventually u get to a point where u're making entire SALARIES in 1 day and still feel like like u underperformed. U become so detached from reality that u forget that some ppl will never even see that kind of money in a lifetime
In terms of efficiency, it is my personal opinion that EVERYONE should LEARN how to trade. Everyone. No other skill (once mastered) can return as much capital, in as little time, and with as much freedom (no boss) & comfort (pajamas) than trading. But dont trade to be wealthy,
trade to be independent and self-sufficient FIRST. the problem is that everyone who starts trading wants to be filthy rich immediately & have a Lambo by next year. get the fuck outta here. That mindset is why so many traders oversize too early & blow up before mastering the skill
The key to make $1K, $5K, $10K, $100K a day etc first starts with MASTERING how to make $100, $200, $500 etc a day first. Meaning u will have to be ok with making pussy amounts of money for months FIRST, which wont happen if u have "lambo dreams", b/c u'll always be in a rush.
It blows my mind how lucky some of u new traders are. GOOD Info was NOT this easy to come by years ago when I started. My learning curve wouldve been a lot less brutal & I wouldve spent a lot less time hopping from DM to DM & sucking endless dick if it was. Take advantage of this
That's why i FULLY support services that help speed up the learning curves of those willing to put in the work. I wish these fuckers were around when I started.
I dont know how many times I have to repeat this. read my tweets on hiding PNL and the affect focusing on PNL or equity curves has on discipline & impulsive behavior etc. guys, you cannot rewrite biology.. HUMANS ARE NOT DESIGNED TO TRADE. As crazy as that sounds, read that again
Our brain is predominantly wired to do what?
to AVOID risk
to AVOID losing resources
to AVOID admitting defeat
to get REVENGE
Those are things that helped us survive as hunters & gatherers in the wild. But notice how that's the EXACT opposite of what u need to be a good trader
That is why traders can bring their knowledge up to 9/10 after endless hours of study, but still struggle with discipline even 2-3 years later. Why do u think the the discipline part is so hard for almost everyone? u think everyone is just retarded? no. it's a neurobiology issue.
Remember, EVERY indicator in the world can give you a bullish signal, EVERY chart pattern in the world can scream "buy now", but if someone puts a 1M sell order on the Ask, on a stock that is not able to generate that much volume, the stock isnt going ANYWHERE. and that's just 📠
Stocks dont go up because "tHe cOmPaNy iS gReAt" or "tHe nEwS wAs bUlLiSh bRo". they go up b/c the combined market-buy orders generated enough volume to remove all the limit-sell orders sitting on the ask (supply/demand imbalance). it's literally that simple. Volume moves price.
Unless u're a scalper, taking profits too early is 1 of the MOST underrated reasons why traders fail. Broker reports have confirmed this. Traders dont have issues finding winning trades.. they have issues staying in the trade long enough for the risk/reward to make fucking sense
Traders will lose let's say $1000 five times in a row then finally nail a $100 winner and close the trade.. because their fucking cognitively impaired "guru" told them "goTTA cLOsE gReEn bRo". Or my most hated one "MoNeY iS mOnEy bRO".
yeah "money is money" but the only problem with that dumb ass Neanderthal logic is that it is mathematically IMPOSSIBLE to be profitable long term with a risk/reward this trash. It's not enough to be green. That "green" has to be big enough to cover both past & future losses.