1/6
“China currently doesn’t need to conduct asset purchases,” Yi Gang, governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), wrote in the September issue of Financial Research on Tuesday.
scmp.com/economy/china-… via @scmpnews
2/6
“Conditions allow this because the country’s potential economic growth potential is expected to stay between 5 and 6 per cent, and the yield curve can be maintained at a normal upward slope.”
3/6
This is an interesting point. I would argue (and so would an increasing number of Chinese and foreign analysts, it seems) that China can only maintain 5-6% growth rates as long as monetary policy accommodates explosive growth in debt.
4/6
Perhaps more importantly, given regular PBoC scolding of US and European QE, what is the difference between moral hazard and central-bank asset purchases?
5/6
With the former, the banks create assets secure in the knowledge that they can pass the risk on to the government, whereas with the latter, the banks create assets and the government buys them whenever it needs to obviate risk.
6/6
Are central-bank asset purchases meaningless, or at least unnecessary, in a system underpinned by moral hazard? I wonder if @PMehrling might have an answer.

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More from @michaelxpettis

30 Sep
1/8
Under the principle that "houses are for living in, not for speculation," according to a meeting held jointly by the PBoC the CBIRC, "housing should never be used as a short-term stimulus for economic growth".

news.cn/english/2021-0…
2/8
This seems to me to be a very clear statement that while in the past property investment has contributed a great deal to economic activity, and thus to China's reported GDP, the regulators do not believe that it has contributed an equivalent amount...
3/8
to China's real economy – or else why distinguish between its short-term stimulative impact and its longer-term impact? This simply reinforces Xi Jinping's recent distinction between "fictional" growth and "genuine" growth.
Read 8 tweets
30 Sep
1/10
Regulators seem to be increasing inspection of the activities of onshore FX traders, according to this article, forcing them to cut back on derivative products, to tighten bid-offer spreads and to reduce trading volume.

reuters.com/world/china/ex…
2/10
As I have long argued, all the over-excited talk about the RMB becoming a major global currency is regularly undermined by regulatory actions aimed at protecting the Chinese economy from the costs and risks associated with major global currencies, and this is...
3/10
perhaps just one more example. Beijing seems especially worried about the vulnerabilities created by the recent opening-up of its financial markets to foreign investors, and is worried that changes in US monetary policies could be disruptive domestically.
Read 10 tweets
28 Sep
1/11
Very good ChinaTalk interview of my friend Logan Wright, with lots of useful insights. There is one point he makes that I think is very important, even if not enough people covering China appreciate it. He says: "I think there's generally more...

chinatalk.substack.com/p/explaining-e…
2/11
coherence right now in Beijing about the critique of China's current growth model rather than coherence around what that alternative would really look like."

Logan is right. Beijing knows what it doesn't want, but it hasn't yet accepted the only sustainable alternative.
3/11
Policymakers have discussed the urgent need to rebalance the economy at least since 2006-07, after which we've had various attempts to resolve China’s economic imbalances by controlling the rise in debt, by structural supply-side reform, by insisting that “homes...
Read 11 tweets
27 Sep
Zhou Xin writes: "News that China’s disciplinary watchdog will send inspectors into the country’s financial regulators and its top state-owned financial institutions to look for signs of corruption, negligence and disloyalty could soon...

scmp.com/economy/articl… via @scmpnews
2/4
be keeping some Chinese bankers awake at nights."

In a tweet I posted a few days ago I said that the Beijing rumor mill was buzzing ferociously with talk about senior financial officials, especially from an institution I cannot yet name, that were likely to get caught up...
3/4
in investigations in the next few weeks and months because of their involvement in questionable financial deals that characterized (as they always do) the boom period of rapid growth, soaring debt, and asset price bubbles.
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
1/4
Good piece by Niall Ferguson (@nfergus) who also thinks that the history of the USSR in the 1960s and early 1970s has a lot to teach us about a sustainable growth trajectory in China.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @bopinion
2/4
I've long argued that japan in the 1980s and the USSR in the 1960s are important historical precedents in helping us understand how this growth model works. Every country that has achieved "miracle" growth...
3/4
under the high-savings/high-investment model — of which the USSR and Japan are just the most famous — has later shifted into a phase in which growth is driven mainly by surging debt and the systemic creation of bezzle.
carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancial…
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
1/13
While I agree with most of what Ruchir Sharma says in this piece, I am more skeptical than he is about the following: "The problem: what happens in China no longer stays in China, which is the main engine of global growth."

ft.com/content/8a2d17…
2/13
While China is the largest arithmetical component of global growth, this doesn't make it the main engine of global growth in any meaningful sense. In a world of excess desired savings, the engine of growth is demand, and not only is China not the biggest source of net...
3/13
demand to the global economy, it is in fact the biggest net absorber of global demand, with monthly trade surpluses of around $50 billion. That is why a crisis in China won't affect the real economies of the rest of the world in the same way as a crisis in the US might.
Read 14 tweets

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