Thread by @VidShankarAiyar

The comparisons being made between #AUKUS n the India US civil nuclear deal (#IUSCND) of 2005-08 are not warranted just because nonproliferation questions apply to both.

But both stink.

Love India #AUKUS people but hate their governments. Be warned.

Quick read thread 1/20

#IUSCND was civil cooperation between non allies. #AUKUS is a pact between hardcore military partners. The object n purposes of the two are entirely different.

Comparing the 2 is like comparing apples n oranges.
2/20

Whatever the stated goals, the US gained a vassal state like India because of the #IUSCND. India got its ego pumped but has significantly lost its integrity as a serious player in international relations.
3/20

In #AUKUS, Australia is already in a military alliance with the US. N as Malcolm Turnbull, the Liberal Party Australian PM who did the original French sub deal says, the 3 states already are one of the closest in terms of intelligence sharing n security.
4/20

India may not have augmented its number of nukes nor become a member of the NSG, but it is now firmly in the orbit of the US, thanks ONLY to the #IUSCND. This is a big plus for the US. Not India.
5/20

I absolutely loathe ‘balancing powers’ reasoning in international relations as it is a bogus theory. The US may have gained in ‘balancing China’. But India created a dis-balance due to #IUSCND. India… lost its balance.
6/20

India rejected the NPT. Australia embraced it. India will never sign on to the NPT. Certainly not as a Non Nuclear Weapon State. Australia will never leave the NPT n will remain a Non Nuclear Weapon State.
7/20

The fact that secrecy n only a few people determined both #AUKUS n #IUSCND is not significant. Many government decisions are like that. Around the world. Indeed, they reflect the whims of their leaders quite often.
8/20

For instance, no one knows for certain, why Bush decided to gift India the #IUSCND. It was his whim. N it WAS a GIFT. Not something India had asked or negotiated for. Don’t believe the Indian n some US officials of the time brag about their contributions. All rubbish.
9/20

Wrote about this in a book, the first ever on the #IUSCND. ‘The Indo US Nuclear Deal: Seeking Synergy in Bilateral Relations’. The late P R Chari edited.

My chapter is titled, ‘Prime Time Deal’, having had a ringside view as a journalist for the Indian national media.
10/20

N there is more on what the #IUSCND meant finally, in this short thread.
11/20

https://twitter.com/vidshankaraiyar/status/995270240475926528

Not just the US, but the Indian government too was stingy with details n working in secrecy.

The #IUSCND ‘secrecy’ hurt no other state/party. The #AUKUS secrecy hurt a close long term US ally. France.
12/20

Plans are worked out, but rarely are they ‘thought through’ in government.

The US may have wanted to help make India a superpower n counter China. But that doesn’t mean it will succeed. It hasn’t, anyway.
13/20

#AUKUS may not work out. Biden will be dead in the next 20 years, before the first sub may arrive. Yet, the idea will be pursued now vigorously to please the master, @POTUS.

So much for democracy n policy making.
14/20

So is it with the #IUSCND. No US civil nuclear reactors may be built in India. But it was never about building them anyway.

The US is laughing all the way to the bank, with Indian defence deals.
15/20

The same may happen with #AUKUS

It is not about whether HEU or LEU is the better option.

Or the US changing its long term policy on nuclear sub tech.

Nor nonproliferation.

It may be defence contracts n deals the US/UK get for which Australians will foot the bill.
16/20

Ultimately, all this is a political decision. #AUKUS, #IUSCND et al. It always is.

The packaging may be, oh, it is a strategic decision. Bollocks!

Nuclear weapons are just a suicide pact. N there are 9 states who are willing members. Why co-opt more? #nuclearban
17/20

N who cares about the aspirations of the people in the Pacific, or East Asia or South East Asia? Right? Certainly #AUKUS does not care. Nor does #Quad.

N who knows what’s to happen in the intervening 20 years? Things will surely not remain the same.
18/20

Maybe Europe should remind the US n the rest of the world of a lesson from Karków, Poland.

To kill a fire breathing dragon in Wawel Castle, all it needed was a humble shoemaker, who bore no arms n wore no armour, but some twine, a needle n a sharp mind.

Some lambskin, sulphur n mustard seeds did the trick to combust the dragon n drown it in the Vistula river. Knights in shining armour were of no use.

N the part I like the best?

The nameless hero doesn’t marry King Krak’s daughter, Wanda. He just carries on making shoes.