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Kuppy Profile picture
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30 Sep, 5 tweets, 3 min read
1) Back in March of 2020, JPOW gave you a free shot on goal. If you scored, good for you. If you missed, that’s your fault. The past 18 mos have been one of the easiest market periods ever. They literally gave away huge $$$. It was too easy. I maxed out and positively banked it…
2) The market has changed. JPOW is no longer on your side. The politicians are against you. The flows are against you. It will get a lot harder. You need to be more selective.
3) I’m the “Project Zimbabwe” guy. Nothing has changed in my mind, but that doesn’t mean all assets power forward from here. There will be losers, terrifying volatility and lots of casualties along the way…
4) “Project Zimbabwe” will roll on, but it will be @kevinmuir’s “rolling bubbles” instead of a giant insanity-fest of speculation in everything. If you haven’t recognized the massive sector rotation underway from Ponzi to hard assets, you’re about to get buried…
5) Along the way, there will be MASSIVE volatility!! I think the bottom finally falls out for Ponzi assets. Strap in!! Q4 will be one for the books. Us Event-Driven traders live for what’s about to come. Join us on the Discord Channel at KEDM.COM.

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More from @hkuppy

Kuppy Profile picture
18 Jul
1) Markets are hard to predict. Anyone who tells you otherwise, hasn’t been around the markets long enough. Here’s the most recent head scratcher from my book; why have housing-related equities sold off in the past few weeks..???
2) A few months ago, we all “knew” the bear thesis. I even posted on it at the peak of the mortgage rates spike and said I wasn’t too concerned. adventuresincapitalism.com/2021/03/22/who…
3) What has happened since then?? 30-yr Mortgage Rate has pulled back 35bps. Lumber is down by 2/3. Labor is slowly getting better in some states. Affordability is better.
Read 6 tweets
Kuppy Profile picture
18 Jun
1) So fed talks tough. Bullard makes the rounds. Curve flattens and a bunch of “late to party” hedge funds puke their “inflation trades”—they never believed in the trade anyway...
2) You think oil gives 2 fuks about curve steepeners blowing up some asshole in Greenwich?? Nope!! Look at it. Oil is key to inflation. Not gold, not #Bitcoin, not copper or anything else. Watch oil. It’s the first to call their bluff. Think wages are backing off?
3) They’ll talk a big game, maybe give us 50bps in ‘23. Who cares?? You think they kept rates at zero in Zimbabwe?? This is a fiscal show now anyway. Fed is trapped and this is all a pretend...
Read 4 tweets
Kuppy Profile picture
8 Feb
1) Yesterday, a good friend reminded me of the 2 cardinal rules for short selling during “Project Zimbabwe”...
2) Rule 1- if you feel a desire to short something, punch yourself in the dick...
3) Rule 2- repeat Rule 1 until you snap out of your stupidity...
Read 4 tweets
Kuppy Profile picture
27 Jan
1) This $GME trade has been obvious and I’ve been all over it for weeks. Barring something unexpected, we have an insanity squeeze tomorrow. Fun stuff!! I have no right-tail exposure as I already banked massive gains. That was the appetizer...
2) If I’m right about the insanity squeeze, all the funds who are short $GME and similar stuff, blow up and have to puke their longs. Remember, 120/80 has been a massive inflow machine. Now these levered funds are on the ropes. It’s a “quant quake.”It will be sudden and violent..
3) The higher $GME goes, the more it will pressure the quants. However, when all the equity is chewed through, someone has to defuse these neutron bombs. I suspect there’s a price on $GME where the prime brokers will step in...
Read 9 tweets
Kuppy Profile picture
10 Dec 20
1) Quick Event-Driven idea in $MCAC. Lemme start by saying I own a bunch (fair disclosure). It is “breaking out” today on big volume, which means it’s been “discovered.” (I havent added any today, but would if I weren’t at the airport and still in de-grossing mode).
2) What is $MCAC? It’s a small float (5.7m shares)SPAC that’s buying Playboy. What’s Playboy? It’s no longer the magazine and porno brand of Hef days. Now it’s a licensing business (clothing/casinos/condoms/booze/etc). Licensing is a stunningly good business and it’s growing fast
3) New CEO (Ben Kohn) took over in 2017 and pivoted out of bad biz (magazine/porn) to licensing. I spoke with Kohn. He has a PE background. He gets it. He’s here to make money—not chase girls. They will expand licensing and grow their Direct-To-Consumer business.
Read 9 tweets
Kuppy Profile picture
11 Sep 20
1) Let’s do a Friday happy-hour Event-Driven (ED) thread as ED keeps working. Not every trade is a home-run, but the hit rate has been surprisingly good lately. Let’s look at one of my favorite strategies; potential short squeezes...
2) $DDS may or may not be undervalued. It probably goes the way of $JCP, but that’s not my fight. I care about the short interest at 6,819,568. It has been high forever and there have been a number of squeezes in the past few years.
3) What matters today is that $DDS keeps buying back stock, setting up for a new squeeze. During July, they bought back 586,851 shares. By my math, between Aug 1 and Aug 29, they bough back another 267k shares. That means there are 18,366,790 Class A shares outstanding on Aug 29.
Read 11 tweets

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