I've been coinpilled since at least 2013.

But after speaking with Rohan I went from thinking "This is kind of a fluke legal technicality" to thinking "This is unambiguously sound, legal, not even a close call, and not even a significant stretching of the law's intent"
I previously thought that the law accidentally worded in such a way as to allow a law on collectibles to enable a trillion dollar coin.

But I no longer think that's the case. It's wording is intentional, and designed to increase potential mint seignorage revenue.
Of course, the designers of the law didn't contemplate it being used as a break-the-glass solution to the debt ceiling.

But the flexibility it affords the Treasury secretary (on coin denomination) is clearly no accident of wording.
And since the mint is a profit source for the Treasury (not unlike the Fed, in the sense that all Fed profits are remitted back to the Treasury), it just doesn't seem like a close call that the law can be used in this way.
And again, I'd just point out that @PhilipNDiehl -- who authored the law's precise wording along with former Rep. Mike Castle of Delaware -- came to the same conclusion, upon being presented with @mucha_carlos' interpretation of the statute.

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More from @TheStalwart

22 Sep
I don't even know what people really mean by "Lehman Moment" anymore, but IMO, the greatest sources of market panic/pure fear come when it appears that the mechanics of the government/politics are incapable of doing bailouts/stimulus. (EG the TARP vote.
I don't think China will ever have this exact problem. They may have painful losses, and other calamities. But due to the nature of their system, there probably won't be a period where people wonder if Beijing is capable of bailing out the financial system.
Same with Europe. There were moments in 2011-2013, when it seemed genuinely possible that the nature of the euro area/ECB structure was not mechanically up to the task of stopping an uncontrolled financial panic.
Read 6 tweets
17 Sep
The dots probably served a purpose post-GFC, in hammering home the seriousness with which the Fed meant what it said about staying at ZIRP for a long time.

But in framework where destination is supposed to trump path, they inevitably draw FOMC members back into a path discussion
If I say "I'm not going to raise rates until unemployment is at 3% then that's a destination comment.

But the moment you ask me to make a forecast about *when* unemployment gets to 3%, you're implicitly asking me my growth forecast (path).
We've had years and years of ZIRP, and there's this perception that the Fed likes it this way and hates hiking and all that.

But it's been memoryholed the degree to which post-GFC, the public perception was the exact opposite, that the Fed hated ZIRP and wanted to hike ASAP.
Read 5 tweets
16 Sep
Serious question about blockchain fees. Is there any evidence that any chain has found (or will find) a stable equilibrium such that miners (or validators) are adequately compensated, but the chain doesn't get too expensive, driving users to other chains or other layers?
People like to joke that the goalposts are always moving. That at the end of 2017, the knock on Bitcoin was that the fees were too expensive for anyone to use. And today that's the knock on Ethereum.

But now people point out that Bitcoin's fees are dangerously low?
In theory, Ethereum's fee problem (too expensive) could be solved if everyone uses Layer 2, but then does this pose the risk of fees evaporating on the main chain, creating the same security problem that bitcoin faces today?
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
MORE CHIPS CONTENT

On the new Odd Lots, @tracyalloway and I brought back on @Srasgon to explain why, after all this time, the semiconductor supply chain actually seems to be getting WORSE.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@tracyalloway @Srasgon One of the things that I'm learning, from our various episodes on things like chips and also shipping, is just how incredibly messy and inefficient B2B purchasing is.

@tracyalloway wrote about it here, the disconnect between headline orders and sales bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
With shipping, so much of whether you can get space on a vessel (as @typesfast explained) so much depends on whether you know a guy in Copehnhagen who can get your stuff on a boat.

With trucking, a lot of it jobs are just done over random message boards or Telegram groups.
Read 5 tweets
23 Aug
An extraordinary new Odd Lots

@tracyalloway and I spoke with @aahmady, the former head of Afghanistan’s central bank. We discussed the the events of the last two weeks, bank management in more normal times, and the economic situation the country now faces bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@tracyalloway @aahmady And of course the episode is available on anywhere like

Apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-c…

Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/4VwAG5…

Etc.
@tracyalloway @aahmady FULL TRANSCRIPT:

Our conversation with @aahmady bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
16 Aug
NEW ODD LOTS:

Nearly a year after the framework review at the 2020 Jackson Hole, @tracyalloway and I talked to @neelkashkari about the quest to get to full employment and what it looks like when we're there. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@tracyalloway @neelkashkari We also talked about the macro situation right now, including inflation, whether it's transitory, what it would look like if it were becoming a bigger problem, and much more.
This wasn't intentional, but last week we had on Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan, and I realized that Kaplan and Kashkari were the two dissenters at the September 2020 Fed decision. So it's a real treat to have gotten to speak with both of them. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets

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