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Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
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1 Oct, 5 tweets, 4 min read
This thread shows instances of fully vaccinated people picking up (and spreading) infections. Apart from very low baseline risk, this is one more good reason why universal COVID vaccination for healthy children isn’t advisable. See UK study linked below. @GKangInd @doctorsoumya
Vaccinating healthy children will not stop them from picking up or spreading the virus. Such protection won’t last >3 months.

see thread above👆 for context

@ProfSomashekhar @PIB_India @DrLahariya @RemaNagarajan @IMAIndiaOrg @jayalal10 @dr_Sulphi_Noohu @drbabukv @VeenaGeorge03
Link to UK study.
(see thread above👆 for context)
A prison outbreak, while unfortunate, is also an opportunity to study individual outcomes based on vaccination status. 👇.

This report gives important insights on what will happen in a mixed (vaccinated and unvaccinated) population when an outbreak occurs.

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More from @RajeevJayadevan

Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
2 Oct
Should we be shutting down borders and closing economies any more?

Genomic sequencing from Rwanda tracks arrival of variants from surrounding regions (the process is bidirectional)

But did such restrictions:

1. make any long-term difference?
2. stop VOC from taking over?

1/4
Such measures, taken by several nations in 2020, were justifiable due to a fear of the unknown. Now that we have 21 months of data, it is time to sit down & see if they made any difference.

We must also not forget that it is the SAME virus, regardless of fancy Greek names.

2/4
The problem with variants of concern is two-fold.

1. They take a long time to show their true colours. Thus, by the time they are declared as VOC, modern travel would have taken them all around the world.

2. Even a single introduction is enough to infect a whole country.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
1 Oct
Report of vaccinated MBBS students picking up SARS-CoV-2 virus; such clusters have been occurring.

This is not “fear-mongering” (as some allege), but an important message to the public that they can’t discard precautions just because they are vaccinated. @GargiRawat @sjacobtalk
Read 5 tweets
Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
27 Sep
Why vaccine passports are invalid.

This thread in response to query by @FaruquiNeha based on an article by @Craig_A_Spencer that essentially states vaccinated people are less likely to be infected.

While that statement is true, it doesn’t address the whole issue.👇

1/17
I will address the key question here with an example.

You are in a room with ten other people.

You want to know if it is safe; and whether any of them could pass the virus on to you.

The basic concept of vaccine passport is that such a person will not give you the virus.

2/
But in reality, we can no longer classify everything in binary terms (black or white)

According to the proponents of vaccine passport, only two kinds of people exist in the universe.

The vaccinated, and the unvaccinated.

Unfortunately, that is not the reality. 👇

3/
Read 17 tweets
Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
24 Sep
Predictions of the future are notoriously unreliable. Two contrasting opinions are seen here.

One is the simplistic view that the virus will evolve into a common cold virus, which is more of wishful thinking.

The other is that such a change will not occur.

Will explain below👇
Selection pressure is a term used in evolution.

It can be positive, which means those with advantageous mutations get selected over others, leading to an increase in its population. Example is delta variant in the case of SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Negative selection pressure is 👇

2/
Negative selection pressure also occurs in evolution, it is basically the force that gets rid of the “seconds” or “imperfect products” or those who have genetic changes that are deemed unfit for long term survival of the species.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
19 Sep
Why have the US death rates not come down?

It is 9 months since vaccines were rolled out in the US.
61% have received at least 1 dose.
54% are fully vaccinated.

The ratio between cases and deaths should have increased by now.
(Fewer deaths per case = bigger ratio)

Thread 👇
One possibility is that there are still many people who are not vaccinated, and these figures represent infection & death among the unvaccinated subgroup.

And if the unvaccinated are predominantly over 65, it would mean more deaths. See NYT article👇

2/
nytimes.com/2021/06/21/us/…
The above article states that in 11 states, at least 20% of older adults have not received even one dose.

The most logical explanation for the above graph is the combination of factors (older age group + being unvaccinated) existing in a large number of people.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Rajeev Jayadevan Profile picture
17 Sep
Past infection did not provide additional protection from breakthrough infections.

ICMR study on 614 healthcare workers, half of whom each got covishield & covaxin.

Breakthrough infection rate was 13% in those with & without past infection.

1/6
assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-88876…
Breakthrough infection rate is not provided for type of vaccine. Only overall number is given (13%, 81/614)

Antibody levels are seen to drop with time as expected.

Peak antibody levels are lower & the decline faster for covaxin, but this does not imply lower protection.

2/
The reason why a lower antibody level does not mean lower protection is that there are multiple components in the immune system that provide protection. Not all of them are measurable.

Besides, the study does not provide data that lower antibody level led to more infections.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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