Start from the classical model in micro 101, the foundation of modern econ. A fundamental result (going back centuries) is that inflation is indeterminate. That means that if people expect inflation of 100%, inflation will be (close to) 100%. Why?
doi.org/10.2307/3440167
If everyone expects prices to double, everyone sets their [prices / wages / any choice in £s] to be twice as high. But then prices double, just as people expected. Expectations are (almost) *all* that matters for inflation, and they can be anything.
doi.org/10.1086/696050
In classical models, indeterminacy is broken by a monetary-fiscal policy regime. Monetarism, interest rates, FTPL, etc, are different approaches to use a policy variable to steer expectations of that variable and of inflation, to pin inflation itself.
bit.ly/2Y9yuYs
Models of stickiness [transaction costs, nominal rigidities, information, etc] are models to have real outcomes and inflation determined simultaneously. They produce a “Phillips curve”: now, for fixed expectations, real activity *also* pins down inflation.
ideas.repec.org/h/eee/monchp/3…
Sections 3 and 4 of this paper criticize some features of (very old) models of the Phillips curve. There is much to discuss about those features, but if you take them away…
...you are back at the classical point where *all* that matters is expectations
doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.…
A looong time ago, macro did not have to be grounded on classical micro principles. But even then, the major authors thought expectations were *crucial* for inflation: see Keynesian “animal spirits” or Samuelson-Solow’s classic article (page 83 here)
ideas.repec.org/a/aea/jecper/v…
Incidentally, even a policymaker like McChesney Martin (Fed chair 1951-70), who used little formal theory to guide his actions, *very often* discussed inflation expectations as a main driver of the rise in inflation in the 1960s (see pages 4-9 here)
brook.gs/3uBuexd
So, when Rudd discusses economic theory to argue that expectations do not matter for inflation, imho he has little to stand on: definitely not in the core of micro-founded macro, and not even in pre-1970s macro. Theory soundly says *yes*, expectations matter for inflation.

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More from @R2Rsquared

29 Sep
If people pay attention to everything and know it all, they don't need to form expectations of inflation: they just know it. However, information is incomplete, and we have limited attention. So, we make predictions based on a limited set of information
ideas.repec.org/h/eee/monchp/3…
Theories of attention are theories where people choose whether to spend some scarce resource (time, money, brain capacity) to expand their set of information. With it, they update their expectations. This change in beliefs makes them change some actions.
ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/1…
Read: “It is far more useful to ensure that inflation remains off of people’s radar screens than it would be to attempt to “re-anchor” expected inflation” as the main policy advice in an argument that expectations are not important to understand inflation
doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.…
Read 6 tweets
28 Aug
I’ve just been catching up with Jackson Hole’s symposium. It had some great papers. But, of course, the attention went to Jay Powell’s speech. Most people liked it. But, reading it today, the speech has made me nervous about US inflation. Here is why. 🧵
ft.com/content/ced452…
I mostly agree with Powell that (1) much of the recent increase in inflation is relative prices not pure inflation, (2) these price changes seem temporary, (3) no pick up in wages so far, (5) global forces are favorable. But not with his discussion of (4) inflation expectations.
Powell started with “as long as longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored” we'll be fine. But I expected that to be followed by: “here is what I will do to anchor them”. Expectations depend on *his* policy choices. They're not some exogenous force
federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…
Read 10 tweets
29 Mar
During my Lamfalussy fellowship at the @BIS_org, I wrote a paper for its annual conference on “The constraint on public debt when r < g but g < m”.

A short thread on economic policy implications from the paper. (Ungated at bit.ly/3m2BmOX)

1/14
cepr.org/active/publica…
The bread-and-butter of analyses of whether the public debt is sustainable is the government budget constainrt:

Public Debt + PV(govt purchases + transfers) = PV(tax revenues)

(PV is for present value using a discount rate.)

2/14
The cruel side of this equation is that if investors think it won’t hold, because debt is too high, then the discount rate spikes, and the PV of tax revenues crashes. It becomes more likely that country can't pay for the debt. The self-fulfilling nature of sovereign defaults
3/14
Read 14 tweets
18 Feb
** MMT is the new supply-side economics
Forty years ago, some economists started from an uncontroversial (but important) result: a lower tax rate raises the tax base, so revenues won't fall as much. But then they ran with it, predicting tax rate cuts could raise revenues.

1/13
The 80s supply-siders went to the limit and came up with a motto: lower taxes will lower deficits as a norm, not an exception. Many economists shouted this was backwards. It was an implausible limit case. Textbooks called them "charlatans and cranks" or "silly".
2/13
In 80s debates, supply-siders would often fall back to "you don't understand me", repeating "Laffer curve!" endlessly, or stating vacuous accounting identities about how the government collect taxes. Their extreme prediction was repeatedly proven wrong by theory and data.
3/13
Read 13 tweets
5 Aug 20
*** What is automatic about the automatic stabilizers?

The discussion on the US extending the extra $600 in unemployment benefits has been couched in terms of automatic stabilizers. But if Congress needs to do something about it, how is this automatic?
on.wsj.com/33qIhdj
The CARES Act was a discretionary policy; why is repeating it now automatic? The Act by law expires now; isn’t extending it the opposite of automatic?
Like many other non-boring economic concepts, “automatic stabilizers” is used to mean different things
bit.ly/2EIYi42
A strict definition of an automatic stabilizer is “The fiscal stabilizers are the rules in law that make fiscal revenues and outlays relative to total income change with the business cycle” The rules make eligibility or size depend on individual conditions
personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers/1…
Read 22 tweets
16 May 20
** The past and present of QE by the ECB

The German constitutional court ruling from ten days ago has gotten a lot of attention for its legal and political implications. Here is my take on the economics from reading the ruling.
[1/13]
bit.ly/2Z6FPGK
Most of the ruling is criticisms by the German court (GFCC) of the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU), and defenses of the GFCC imposing its power. The political & legal implications are serious. The ECB got caught in the no-man's land of this fight.
2/13
on.ft.com/2zLsPfm
The main economic argument is that QE ignored the principle of proportionality. Some have ridiculed its application: the Treaty says the primary goal is price stability giving it a disproportionate weight. I disagree, I think the German court is right
3/13
bit.ly/2XfAiLN
Read 13 tweets

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