This study shows that as antibody levels drop, antibody-dependent enhancement can be a factor in enhanced infectivity of SARS-CoV-2. The authors took convalescent antibodies from recovered COVID patients and studied the role of different Fc receptors in mediating this effect.
These findings are concerning, as they suggest that below certain thresholds of neutralizing antibodies, “off-target” antibodies can enhance infectivity.
I worry that as we give boosters against older strains of COVID, the risk of this occurring clinically may also increase. It shouldn’t be controversial to state this, and this isn’t to suggest that vaccines aren’t necessary for saving lives.
The next generation of vaccine platforms should actively consider these data and what we know about infection-enhancing antibodies, and should promote hyper-specific presentation of only the epitopes that promote neutralizing antibody formation.
Otherwise, we also run the risk of novel strain emergence whereby, upon antibody levels waning, the ratio of neutralizing antibodies decreases while the ratio of infection enhancing antibodies increased.
Note, I am not suggesting that the current vaccines are not efficacious. Vaccination *does* induce a tremendous neutralizing antibody response, much more so than natural recovery. And, this risk of ADE is present from natural exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and recovery from COVID-19.
@FDACBER should consider these data in terms of designing and rapidly approving boosters that promote the appropriate epitopes for maximizing neutralizing antibody responses to current and emerging strains, not just the original outbreak strain.
Additionally, we should develop and deploy more rapid testing that can differentiate between strains, as well as determine neutralizing antibody versus infection-enhancing antibody levels. We need to be aggressively gathering these data and preempting worst-case scenarios.
Finally, we should be quantitating neutralizing antibody levels in vaccinated individuals as well as vaccinated + naturally recovered individuals. Vaccination followed by exposure to and recovery from a new strain of the virus creates similar antibody titers to double vax.
These antibodies e.g. against recovery from the delta variant will be more tuned to new strains, while benefitting from the primary (or secondary) immune response generated from vaccination.
There are a lot of data floating around, and there is much misinformation. Do get vaccinated if you can, as this is the best way to protect yourself and those you care about. The studies are clear that “natural immunity” carries a higher risk of reinfection than vaxed immunity.
(1/6) Fermi’s Paradox, expressed as the Drake Equation, allows us to estimate the frequency of habitable planets and intelligent, spacefaring life. Each additional event is a fraction that reduces the final probability of life within a given distance in the universe ever lower…
(2/6) How can we think of a Fermi’s Paradox and Drake Equation for Lab Leaks? We can call it the Emergent Pathogen Equation.
L = 1-N = P*G*N*R*C
L = probability of lab leak
N = probability of natural origin
(3/6) P = pathogenic research of relevant viral families in a nearby lab occurred (1 if 100% yes scaling to 0 if 100% no)
G = genetic engineering or selection research adapted for human enhanced infection of a previous virus occurred (1 if 100% yes scaling to 0 if 100% no)
9/11 was the first time we got attacked on our own soil since Pearl Harbor. I remember being in 5th grade and being incredulous when I heard that an airplane hit a building in NYC. Initially it sounded like an accident. I remember we had school get cancelled.
Since then, we engaged in a 20 year war and spent trillions of dollars protecting freedom and democracy. And now, we are seeing that the next wave of terrorism is an invisible, biological threat.
We will look back on 2020-2021 similarly to how we look back on 9/11. We got caught off guard, and many people died. It happened on American soil.
Unbelievable. 18 months to state the obvious, that the US and China jointly funded GOF research in China and the USA changed definition of Gain of Function Research to exclude SARS-related viruses. 18 months.
There were COVID-19 paper trails relating to SARS-related virus research and funding. It took over a year to have a mainstream discourse admitting to known information on potential viral origins. This has given China 18 months to obfuscate their work from 2011-2020 and beyond.
Why is the US not investigating and sanctioning the three active Chinese grants funding the EcoHealth Alliance through 2023? From a document I wrote last year, in May 2020. For some reason I cannot find these grants online anymore.
“[In] July, the effectiveness against infection was considerably lower for mRNA-1273 (76%, 95% CI: 58-87%) with an even more pronounced reduction in effectiveness for BNT162b2 (42%, 95% CI: 13-62%).”
🧶🧵 Turning 30 today and reflecting on what I’ve learned over the last decade, hopefully this is useful for other people looking for inspiration in solving hard problems:
1) you will not regret doing hard things that create impact 2) be willing to do the work
3) idea and proof of concept is the first step of many 4) build relationships outside of work 5) spend the time figuring out what you are willing to spend 10-20 years on
6) there will be noise, take the feedback that makes sense and keep improving 7) seek to do what needs to be done and to be fair and kind 8) you will not please everyone, focus on what matters 9) embrace the ebbs and flows and cyclical nature of creative work; the order and chaos
Important to note that the left diagram is “mean total lipid concentration,” while the smaller organs in the right diagram are “total lipid concentration.” One measure average detection in each organ for each rat, while the other measures total activity of combined rat organs.