1/ Medium thread on #SARSCoV2's furin cleavage site and a strikingly similar region in some of the new BANAL genomes from Lao, and in RmYN02 from China.
Seems worth trying to clear up the confusion of @ydeigin on this issue (even it means broadcasting my pic, below).
2/ The furin cleavage site of SC2 is the RRAR in the NSPRRAR stretch of amino acids in the alignment I'm holding up there. It is what makes the virus 'pop' in humans.
The BANAL viruses have NSPAAR. A couple other ones, including RmYN02, have NSPAAR or NSPVAR.
3/ So, having barely scratched the surface of the genetic diversity of these viruses in the wild, we've found several that are literally a *single* amino acid away from having a furin cleavage site.
For example: (NSP) ->inserted R<- AAR.
4/ Regardless of how these genes are aligned with one another on our computers, this is true.
It is also clear that this region of the Spike protein is *highly* prone to insertions and deletions.
5/ Bat populations are like a vast bank of slot machines, and nature is pulling those arms down over and over, day in and day out, coming up with endless variations.
It is likely that a slight tweak of something like a BANAL Spike gave rise to RRAR in a bat.
6/ Though of no relevance in the bat, that motif allowed that virus to hit the jackpot when it got into humans, most likely through intermediate hosts like raccoon dogs sold in wet markets.
7/ That's the big picture. What about the minor question of how these stretches of the spike gene should be aligned?
Yuri's proposal is possibly the least parsimonious scenario I have ever seen to explain a stretch of nucleotides.
8/ By my count, it would require 10 mutations in an 18-nucleotide stretch. This is more differences than expected if you compare two randomly generated stretches of 18 nucleotides! Plus (for the aficionados), 5 would be transversions.
9/ Seems a lot less likely than a couple 'indels' in a region with lots of recombination.
10/ Again, no matter how a BANAL virus genome is aligned against others, that Spike protein contains NSPAAR, and is just one amino acid insertion away from a minimal furin cleavage site.
11/10 As @arambaut has pointed out, it is possible that NSPRRAR and NSPAAR are not homologous. But with respect to the origin of a furin cleavage site, homology does not matter.
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1: I want to follow up the thread below with some additional clarification of why we hypothesize that there may be no real #SARSCoV2 genomes transitional between lineages A and B.
2: @daoyu15 has written a thread asserting that we "toss any genomes that don't fit your conclusions away". I'm afraid this is incorrect on multiple counts.
3: What we show is that many of the putatively transitional genomes bear obvious evidence of being artefacts - probably due to bioinformatic pipelines, rather than sequencing errors per se. (Issues like calling a site with poor coverage to be the base of a reference genome.)
3: To explain, let me introduce you to 'lineage A' and 'lineage B', aka 'clade II' and 'clade I', respectively, in this paper by Zhang et al. These lineages co-circulated in China during the early days of the pandemic, and they differ at two key sites.
[Worobey] would like to see the scientific and intelligence communities collaborate on the problem. "I would hope and assume that this 90-day sprint is going to turn into a nice long jog where there could be some back-and-forth."
3/4 Crucial point US IC elements agree on:
"China’s officials did not have foreknowledge of the virus before the initial outbreak of COVID-19 emerged".
So could we *please* collectively move on from claim that WIV database removal in Sept 2019 was part of a cover-up/conspiracy?
The study, led by Dr. Elisabetta Tanzi, also includes heavy-hitters of molecular evolution @sergeilkp and Sudhir Kumar. I greatly admire both but respectfully disagree with their conclusions here and feel it is important to explain why. 2/
Dr. Tanzi led an earlier study claiming to find evidence of SARS-CoV-2 in a boy in Northern Italy who presented with measles symptoms in Nov 2019. 3/
Here I explain why I (continue to) think that a zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2 is more likely than a lab leak scenario - even though I signed 'The Science Letter'. 1/