Spoke to some really smart college kids recently.

Almost universally, they had a belief that climate change was an unstoppable disaster and the most pressing issue of our time.
The surprising thing was not one of them believed they could or should do anything about it; there seemed to be a total lack of belief in the ability to change the trajectory of the world.
Something has gone wrong here—these are the people who should be taking on the challenge, and they instead are declaring that they’re not going to have kids because the problem is so bad.
Thinking the world is both doomed and unfixable, almost as a point of pride, is a terrible mindset.

I suspect our educational institutions are instilling it, but even if not, they should counteract it.

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More from @sama

26 Sep
This from @ezraklein last week is great: nytimes.com/2021/09/19/opi…
Technology is generally quite deflationary, and this shows up a lot of places. (I hope for a world where important things deflate massively, and NFTs suck up all the inflation.)

But housing, healthcare, and higher education have had massive inflation, mostly due to bad policy.
This is a high-flux moment in society where it seems like there could be major changes, at least for housing and higher education, and maybe we could get much more of the good kind of deflation.
Read 5 tweets
9 Sep
Technology prediction for the 2020s:
The costs of intelligence and energy are going to be on a path towards near-zero.

We certainly won’t get all the way there this decade, but by 2030, it will become clear that the AI revolution and renewable+nuclear energy are going to get us there.
(This won't be true for every kind of intelligence--AI will likely be really great at many things and surprisingly bad at others--but enough to change a lot of things.)
Read 6 tweets
2 Sep
The tax system in California has been broken for some time, and in a world of increasing remote work, is going to become even more broken.
There is a market for different state income tax rates; you can live in a state with a top income tax rate of 13.3%, or 0%, or many rates in between. Historically, you’ve needed to live near your job, but now for many jobs you don’t.
Some people are choosing to keep their same job but move to a location with a much lower income tax rate. The thing that has worked for California for so long—many of the best jobs in the country requiring big taxpayers to live here—may not keep working.
Read 8 tweets
10 Aug
Today OpenAI launched Codex, which is an API that uses AI to write code from natural language.

There's a demo video here: openai.com/blog/openai-co…
It is a rudimentary version of what will be possible, but it really works and will get better fast. Today we can correctly complete a function from our evaluation set about 37% of the time. It's also just really fun to use, and brings back the early joy of programming for me.
I think Codex gets close to what most of us really want from computers—we say what we want, and they do it.

Programming languages are an artifact of computers not being able to actually understand us, and humans and computers relying on a lingua franca to understand each other.
Read 7 tweets
3 Mar
Almost everyone starts off extrinsically motivated to some degree.
Basic version: for most people the levels of the video game go money, power (little power as in managing other people, etc), status (and proving yourself), impact (real power), and finally ‘self-actualization’, eg seeing how good you can be and expressing your curiosity.
All the levels always overlap (most people who do great work were never entirely driven by money, at least not for long, and people on the last level still want more status/ impact), but the mix changes a lot over time. The last level is like infinite Tetris, it never stops.
Read 6 tweets
23 Dec 20
If you want to have the biggest possible impact in tech, I think you should still move to the Bay Area.

The people here, and the network effects caused by that, are worth it.

It's hard to overstate the magic of lots of competent, optimistic people in one place.
The future will certainly be more distributed, but I think that a large fraction of the most important US companies started in the next decade will continue to be within 50 miles of SF.
It's easy to not be in the Bay Area right now, because there's not much to miss out on. As soon as stuff restarts, and the most interesting meetings, dinners, events, and parties are here, I predict FOMO brings a lot of people back fast :)
Read 8 tweets

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