There is an important aspect to understanding how money, ideas, universities, and think tanks work. When donors give money to a university or think for let's say a "China Center" (though pretty much applies to anything else) everyone involved is smart enough to avoid the 1/n
Paper trail in litigation that would wreck them. By that I mean the public statements and private contracts will all say the right things about respecting academic freedom, no strings attached to the money, that allows them to claim no influence from donors 2/n
Put another way, I've personally never witnessed nor heard credible evidence of an academic or think tank publishing something because they were told what to say or were contractually obligated. However, that does not absolve universities or think tanks because what happens 3/n
Is think tanks or universities hire people with that money who are "mission aligned" and elevate their voices. So the Yalibaba Paul Tsai Center does not need to tell people what to say, it just hires China apologists, elevates their voices, and gets out of the way 4/n
This happens over and over for think tanks and universities everywhere on China. This results in two things. First, there absolutely is a degree of self censorship. This takes explicit and implicit forms but it absolutely takes both forms. Explicit censorship is where 5/b
Institution states that will not engage in a project for fear of angering money donors. This happens at universities and think tanks as well as yes (gasp) journalism and media outlets(advertisers). Arguably however, is implicit censoring which is softer but more pernicious 6/n
Implied censoring is where an institution or academic tones down what they would otherwise say to avoid angering someone. They still say something but they water it down significantly. What's an example? Many institutions that take large amounts of CCP produce a human rights 7/n
paper as plausible deniability but continue to push watered down solutions like engagement, change through trade, and policy success. The game theory is set up so that China doesn't need a US university or think tank to avoid all criticism of China for China to win 8/n
It needs to avoid the imposition of material costs. So by elevating China friendly "useful idiots" (Which is the technical term) that will give a gentle nod to problems of human rights but avoid doing anything China wins. The soft self censoring waters down recommendations 9/n
to such a degree they become virtually no better than the straight apologists. As the saying goes if you are lukewarm I'll spit you from my mouth. Seriously think about why senior CCP leaders and US partners give so much to US universities and think tanks if they 10/n
Receive no benefit. Let it be known many institutions have specific contractual clauses that prohibit criticizing a donor anywhere anytime for any reason implied or explicit. However, the corruption is rarely so straight forward but rather elevating voice that accept cues 11/n
and self censor to continue playing the game with broadly mission aligned players. That's how the game is played and why you will see so little criticism of China from universities and think tanks from even places you would think should be critical.
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Short thread on China electricity and epistemology. There is in all things a rush to impute motives or generate an understanding about a situation based upon pre-existing mental framework when the reality is we know very few facts about a situation. China electricity is great 1/n
I started hearing about this and other situations a few weeks ago but it made no sense why. There was no obvious reason why China should be facing electrical shortages. All of the narratives had glaring holes. It was only after talking to a number of people the pieces came 2/n
Together that was confirmed with multiple people. Now it is still important to note we really do not understand a lot here though the mechanics of the situation are clear. By that I mean, it is clear facts that end user price is fixed, generators buy basically at spot 3/n
I am happy to criticize Biden or any one for that matter but in this Biden is absolutely right. Let's hit the highlights. 1. Quad can cooperate because they share values but also because they share interests on China. Whether it is moving supply chains 1/n politico.eu/article/us-joe…
Or improving security cooperation and capabilities. Europe fails on both accounts. They want to cooperate more with China and are unprepared to do most anything on security about any of the big authoritarian problems. Add n Europe is dysfunctional to a degree that nothing 2/n
Happens, one wonders what they even bring to the table or if they can accomplish anything. 2. The underlying complaint from Europe is a divergent view of how each side views multilateralism. Add I have emphasized repeatedly, multilateralism is not an ends but s means 3/n
At the risk of touting my own research, let me explain how China does some of the crazy stuff it does in banking and capital markets to the uninitiated some of which comes from a paper I wrote 7 years ago now about some of the games they play 1/n papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
At least historically, when Chinese banks went public in Hong Kong they were stunningly honest in the IPO prospectuses probably because HK was still a pretty honest market, the lawyers were good, costs to non-compliance were not insignificant and they figured no one read them 2/n
Consequently, if you get hopped up enough on meth of get through 1,000+ pages you learn amazing stuff. The two things that I want to highlight here are what are Chinese lending standards and how do they bailout/disguise bad debt? Even most savy investors think these concepts 3/n
I think there is an important definitional point that is taken for granted but shouldn't be about Evergrande. What do we mean by bailout? In the west we typically take it to mean a company is about the declare bankruptcy or collapse and the government steps up and writes 1/n
A big check to keep the company going. In China for many reasons, bail out needs to be defined much more broadly. What if a local SOE buys one of the unfinished developments at near historical investment cost. Is that a bail out? Likely yes. What if the government 2/n
Tells retail WMP holders they get nothing for redemption in the next 30 days but if they extend the duration 5 years and lower the interest rate, they will get paid off. Is that a bail out? Probably. What if a bad bank asset manager buys a loan from a mid size bank above 3/n
I think the current state of journalism is awful because very few in the industry actually care about truth. It's 110% about selling a narrative and creating outrage. The Milley call to China is the PERFECT example of this. Follow me a second. 1/n
When it was first reported it was reported as part of an advance leak from a book (clue #1 to dig deeper). The initial report says Milley called around January 6th to tell China we would invade. Note how NOTHING revealed is technically false. It is so technically true 2/n
However, note as we proceed how by leaving out key facts it creates a very false picture of the actual events that intends to generate outrage playing to two different narratives. The first encouraged narrative was that Milley went rogue and yes the deep state was trying 3/n
In all seriousness, DC politicians and related Galaxy Brains are the most worthless of all species when it comes to these questions. You can literally show these reptiles the raw data of how China does what it does, the companies involved, how this all breaks US law, 1/n
and literally invites the Chinese and Russian military INTO every sensitive sector and not only do these liberal arts major have no understanding of what you are talking about they don't even care even when you draw a straight line. The think tanks are too damned compromised 2/n
and have no idea about anything technical so unless it involves trying to write the next Kenan article or passing along juicy gossip from a meeting they could care less and dont have the intellectual depth to grasp what you are talking about anyway. Finally, US business 3/n