Finding swing trading setups using Anchored VWAPs and Volume Shelf - A Thread 👇
Anchored VWAP is the average price people paid from a specific anchor in the chart. Bulls and bears do not want stock to cross the average price they paid to buy/sell it!
$SPY $AFRM $V
(1/n)
Let's take an example of a bull run. When a breakout happens, or a reversal happens, or a rally begins, people start buying! We can assume such points as our anchor points!
Now as long as price stays above their average price, they are happy!
But what if it comes down!
(2/n)
If it comes down, those bulls might start buying again because anytime price will go below the anchored vwap from their initial buy point, they are in loss. THIS IS IMPORTANT!
They do not want to go in loss, so they start buying again pushing the price higher.
(3/n)
This is useful to know for everyone! Let's also couple this with something called a volume shelf.
Volume shelf shows you areas where most shares were traded. Similar to AVWAP, when price starts to cross below the shelf, bulls will step in because they are going in loss.
(4/n)
Now that we have a rough understanding of what pains bulls on an uptrend, and when do they step in to avoid any losses, we can move ahead.
For a bullish swing trade, our task is to now find setups that are on anchored VWAP supports + volume shelf supports.
(5/n)
Let's take a look at an example of $AFRM. You can see here that from the gap up AVWAP, we have a support below. We tried to go below it but buyers stepped in and price is above it now.
Same goes to the volume shelf level here! Buyers stepped in.
(6/n)
Let's take a look at another example - $SPY - This is just beautiful 😍
You can see that an AVWAP from every dip's reversal point acts as a support for the next rallies! There's no other indicator that can do this consistently across the entire market! Trust me.
(7/n)
To wrap this up - you need two things for every bullish swing setup. You can reverse this for bearish setups.
1. AVWAP Support from some important level (better if we have multiple AVWAP supports) 2. Volume Shelf support.
The last part is - how do we find these? ❓
(8/n)
For that you can use our "Event AVWAP" on Stocks Dashboard to draw multiple anchored VWAPS and see if you have support levels. $V is an excellent example - so many supports 👇
You can also use "Scany" to just filter for stocks on volume shelf & AVWAP supports.
(9/n)
I hope this is useful for everyone, even if you don't use our platform. Over my 3 years experience, I have not found any technical indicator that works better than anchored VWAP.
If you like this post, please retweet it and give us a follow at @Tradytics
Love you all 🙏😍
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The algo flow line calculates the strength of options flow for a ticker for every minute of the day. A cumulative score is shown on the chart.
Values above 0 are considered bullish and below 0 are bearish. There are only 4 possibilities.
Cont.
1. When both price and algo flow is going in the same direction. Let us assume they are both bullish.
When that's the case, it means the strength in both price and options flow is very strong. This usually results in continuation of the move.
$SPY example.
2. When price is going down as well as algo flow line is going down. Similar to a bullish move, this means that both price and algo flow are bearish and are supporting each other.
This is again an instance where we expect continuation.
Alright, lesson time. There's such a beautiful thing to see in the markets today especially for newcomers.
Support and resistance levels are your friend - they are the easiest and most reliable way of doing technical analysis (just my opinion)
$PLTR $NIO $RVLV $MU
Let's look at $NIO. We broke a support level yesterday, when we break a support level, it becomes a resistance.
Look at today's rally. Where did it stop? Right at the newly formed resistance level. That's where I bought a put. I'll explain why this happens in some other thread
Before moving forward, this is just one man's opinion and I'm not perfect by any means. These are just some observations that I've had trading in the last one and a half year. You are allowed to disagree. I'm also not perfect and I make plenty of mistakes while trading.
I always start with our options market dashboard to look at the statistics table. I sort it by delta premiums which gives me the most bullish and bearish flow for the day. This is my set!
$SNAP $CVS $AAPL $VIAC $NIO
I pick the top 10 most bullish and bearish stocks in the list and search them on Scany.
For the purpose of this thread, let's just pick $AMAT and $CVS since I just went over them.
Searching them on Scany gives us some more important information about the stocks.
Looking at $CVS, I can see we had a daily breakout here. Looking at the chart, the breakout was there but it failed by the day end. However, it's easy to see that the price is at an all time high and has been trying to break the resistance level. That is good.
I promised some charts today so here we go. All charts are found using our Scany tool and many of these tickers might not have a lot of hype but the price action is good and that's what you need these days.
$EOG broke long term downtrend on weekly chart. Noted added.
$IQ just broke out from a long term resistance here. We had an engulfing candle today (that's the scanner I used here) with increasing volume. All of these signs are very good. Might start a position here.
$BOX we had a beautiful breakout on weekly chart here and there was plenty of strength today as the price did not move down much. Good one.
Important thread on what I'm trying to do these days to reduce my risk.
FYI, Although down the last 2 weeks, I'm fortunately still up about 25% in my overall portfolio so if that helps take some of this advice seriously. Finally, it's just one man's opinion, I could be wrong.
1. Stop buying naked calls or puts. With how the market is hurting people, it's hard to time everything and buying naked calls and puts will incur you a lot more losses than doing something more risk-averse strategies.
2. I sold all my naked calls today for about 20-30% losses on every one of them. I'm putting all that money into cash secured puts for my favorite stocks. Right now, I've two for $SOS and $MARA. Why do I do that?
How to find potential plays using our Options Market Dashboard. A small & important thread.
1. First, take a look at the most bullish and bearish net premiums and find the top 3-5 candidates. $SQ $RKT $TSLA $AAPL are a few here. Keep an eye on those and look at live options flow
2. Next, go down and take a look at the cheaplies and leaps widgets. These are some of the most useful widgets you'll find on any website, period. $GM is doing well today, see if you can find it here.
Others are $RIO $NLS $XOM.
3. Next, go to the Most OTM widget - these are slightly risky candidates but their reward is also extremely high since these are far out of the money contracts with high volume. High volume is there to see if there's interest in it. Another extremely useful widget.