On Taiwan/China "war": I see it as highly unlikely. Both sides are posturing. China wants to look tough and Taiwan wants to use it to lobby for more allied connections. +
For China, they'd need a considerable amount of time to build up the necessary forces. We'd see that and respond. They obviously know this, and it would make their fundamental fear a reality... a U.S. blockade. +
China could do a surpise attack, but lack the resources to repel a prolongued U.S. response.
But the end result would be devastating to China: A U.S. led allied blockade of China. China first has to dismantle the U.S. presence in their near abroad (Japan, S Korea etc), and that's years off... if successful. +
China isn't stupid, and they know they have a ways to go on that front. A sudden attack on Taiwan makes no sense and would weaken their overall startegic goals.
That being said, crazy things DO happen, but I'm not reading anything outside of posturing for both countries right now.
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