What to make of the blizzard of French presidential polls in recent days? The racist far-right pundit Eric Zemmour (no apologies for the word racist) is at 15% in first round in one poll, just behind Marine Le Pen but miles behind President Macron 1/
In another poll, @EmmanuelMacron is seen soundly defeating all challengers in the two candidate second round on 24 April. He beats Zemmour  65-35, Le Pen 60-40 and the leading (for now) centre-right contender, Xavier Bertrand, 55-45 3/

linternaute.com/actualite/poli…
Internal, unpublished polls are also said to show that a centre-right “closed primary” on 4 December will be a close-run thing & that, against all expectations, @MichelBarnier could emerge narrowly as the choice of 80K members of Les Républicains 4/
As a result, Xavier Bertrand is refusing (for now) to take part in this vote saying once again he will run an independent centre-right campaign. In truth, all calculations on the centre-right have been overturned by the rise of Zemmour 5/
With a health warning that there is a long way to go, the polls show that all ferment is on the far- & centre-right. Macron is remarkably stable at 24-26% in 1st round voting intentions in all polls. The broad left (incl greens) remain stable at circa 30% but split 6 or 7 ways 6/
On the right, Zemmour’s rise is impressive but misleading. He has taken his support from Le Pen & minor far right candidates plus a chunk of the harder end of the centre right. He can reach the second round if Le Pen melts down further. He CANNOT win there. His negatives = 69% 7/
Zemmour’s rise may be a media bubble. He has not been properly challenged. He has no clear plans for how to implement his pet obsessions. He is causing shock-waves on centre-right bc he is taking away some votes they need to reach second round (where they could beat Macron) 9/
Conclusion: Zemmour’s rise, if it persists, will mean a second term for Macron. If his racist, nasty bubble bursts, as it could, the centre-right might yet beat Macron - but only if they unite behind one candidate. Bertrand? Barnier? Valerie Pécresse? Interesting times

ENDS

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Mujtaba Rahman

Mujtaba Rahman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Mij_Europe

3 Oct
Almost unnoticed, phaps bc it’s done with an English rather than a Hungarian accent, our populist, nationalist PM is setting out to weaken institutions that define a liberal democracy: he’s moving, Orbán style, to make it harder for his Govt to lose power theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
There is a pattern here, if we’re only willing to see it. A populist government hobbling those bodies that exist to keep it in check, trampling on democratic conventions and long-held rights, all to tighten its own grip on power.
We need to recognise it, even when it wears a smile and tousled hair, and speaks in the soothing cadences of Eton College
Read 4 tweets
28 Sep
Germany now faces weeks - if not months - of political uncertainty which creates all sorts of policy risk for Europe. A real danger in the months ahead is a lengthy period without a new voice of any kind in Berlin, just as France plunges into an uncertain election of its own 1/
Because EU faces three extremely big, complex policy questions in the third & fourth quarter this year - over Rule of Law issues with Pol & Hungary; the EU's fiscal orientation in 2023 & how to manage UK escalation over NI Protocol - which are crying out for a political steer 2/
But with a lame-duck Govt now in Berlin, soon to be followed by same in Paris, no major EU policy decisions are likely under either. This risk is the problems fester, escalate & subsequently become harder to resolve 3/
Read 19 tweets
23 Sep
Covid has been good for the EU.
It is now both more cohesive and resilient as a result of the pandemic, compared to before it. But are EU policymakers on the verge of committing another historic fiscal mistake? Thread 1/
Two reasons explain EU’s greater resilience post-Covid

1) The creation of Recovery Fund (RF), which has enabled significant EU-wide borrowing, subsequently transferred to member states as grants. This is facilitating their economic recovery, without increasing their debts 2/
2) Populism has had a bad crisis. This is partly because of RF. Take Italy's case: It's hard to argue against €180bn (10.5% of GDP). Hence the nationalist far-right League led by @matteosalvinimi has largely shut up & entered into reform-oriented coalition led by Mario Draghi 3/
Read 26 tweets
20 Sep
Tough piece from @Jeremy_Hunt on France in Telegraph. This has some way to run
Read 5 tweets
16 Sep
The review to reform EU fiscal rules begins soon. 3 key points: 1/ Process brings risks; 2/ There's an emerging consensus on debt, not investments; 3/ COM is toying with completely overhauling governance - empowering members states to determine their own fiscal trajectories 1/
Process is key - & brings risks. Member states must submit Stability & Convergence Programs to Bxl by mid-Apr. For this they'll need an idea of what fiscal rules in 2023 will be. But we'll only have a new Govt in Berlin in.. Dec? Maybe Jan? That leaves Q1 next yr to do a deal 2/
Absent consensus, COM may be forced to issue a Communique - instead of concrete legislative proposals - pointing to what new rules will likely be. It's here when fiscal hawks (@VDombrovskis is key) will likely urge old rules & EDPs to apply - despite tightening they imply 3/
Read 7 tweets
7 Sep
So it's good there's a compromise over social care. But the bigger picture has been totally lost in the details of today's debate - namely that the UK is already aiming at tighter fiscal policy, while ROW & certainly the EU remains very focussed on supporting the econ recovery 1/
This is largely borne out of differences between @BorisJohnson and @RishiSunak. The PM wants to spend on levelling up, subsidising net-zero, new manifesto commitments and much more besides. He has his eye on the Red Wall 2/
Sunak thinks spending was ALREADY too high pre ~£400bn Govt has spent on Covid relief & is worried about debt servicing costs (given BoE projections of 4% inflation). He also wants to (re)build the party's credibility on fiscal policy vs Labour & is channeling Tory members 3/
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(