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Mujtaba Rahman

5 Oct, 10 tweets, 3 min read

What to make of the blizzard of French presidential polls in recent days? The racist far-right pundit Eric Zemmour (no apologies for the word racist) is at 15% in first round in one poll, just behind Marine Le Pen but miles behind President Macron 1/

See poll here 2/

francetvinfo.fr/politique/emma…

@EmmanuelMacron

In another poll, @EmmanuelMacron is seen soundly defeating all challengers in the two candidate second round on 24 April. He beats Zemmour 65-35, Le Pen 60-40 and the leading (for now) centre-right contender, Xavier Bertrand, 55-45 3/

linternaute.com/actualite/poli…

@MichelBarnier

Internal, unpublished polls are also said to show that a centre-right “closed primary” on 4 December will be a close-run thing & that, against all expectations, @MichelBarnier could emerge narrowly as the choice of 80K members of Les Républicains 4/

As a result, Xavier Bertrand is refusing (for now) to take part in this vote saying once again he will run an independent centre-right campaign. In truth, all calculations on the centre-right have been overturned by the rise of Zemmour 5/

With a health warning that there is a long way to go, the polls show that all ferment is on the far- & centre-right. Macron is remarkably stable at 24-26% in 1st round voting intentions in all polls. The broad left (incl greens) remain stable at circa 30% but split 6 or 7 ways 6/

On the right, Zemmour’s rise is impressive but misleading. He has taken his support from Le Pen & minor far right candidates plus a chunk of the harder end of the centre right. He can reach the second round if Le Pen melts down further. He CANNOT win there. His negatives = 69% 7/

See this poll 8/

nouvelobs.com/election-presi…

Zemmour’s rise may be a media bubble. He has not been properly challenged. He has no clear plans for how to implement his pet obsessions. He is causing shock-waves on centre-right bc he is taking away some votes they need to reach second round (where they could beat Macron) 9/

Conclusion: Zemmour’s rise, if it persists, will mean a second term for Macron. If his racist, nasty bubble bursts, as it could, the centre-right might yet beat Macron - but only if they unite behind one candidate. Bertrand? Barnier? Valerie Pécresse? Interesting times

ENDS

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