If people who hate Johnson don't figure out how cleverly he is gaming media and social media to then develop an effective meme strategy of their own, then they're going to keep losing
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"They didn't have as much immigration as we did to begin with" and this is where I find how history of European migration in UK debate is portrayed as only starting with CEE FoM in 2004 distorts analysis. Germany had big waves of Eastern European migration from 1989 onwards
The reason Germany and quite a few other West European EU states opted for the 7 year full FoM delay after CEE accession in 2004 was exactly because they had absorbed so much East European migration in the 1990s and early 00s even without Freedom of Movement
The great East European wave of migration including Ukraine, Serbia, Albania and other non-EU states started in the late 1980s before Poland and other CEE states joined the EU. And because of demographic and income trends it started to ebb even as the UK voted to leave the EU
Something to keep in mind when comparing UK worker visa systems with German frameworks is what may seem more complicated in terms of coordination on the German side is because decisions are made by local state offices with which businesses deal directly muenchen.de/rathaus/Stadtv…
So while processes on the UK are formally simpler, the power relationships between local corporations and Mittelstands businesses and a local state migration office are very different than between a UK business and the Home Office migranet.org/publikationen/…
German businesses still need to get confirmation from Bundesagentur für Arbeit as well, but as a Labour Agency it is more inclined to show understanding for business needs than a Ministry of Interior aka the Home Office
1. How do you make sure this doesn't just shift red tape but genuinely reduces it? 2. When is someone no longer classified as a migrant and employers stop paying the tax? 2 years, 5 years? 3. If workers are bound to a single contract for years how do you prevent exploitation?
Cutting visa fees up front and then imposing a 7% tax for say a 2-5 year contract just stretches costs. It doesn't remove them. It's like paying the state for your workers in installments rather than up front.
Most systems in Europe (Swiss or EU) for non-EU workers have cut off points where after a few years of employment based with a first employer a migrant can apply for permanent residency. UK will provide that option, so this is still a pathway to permanent settlement
Useful texts for European Britain watchers are John Sullivan's 'As Soon as This Pub Closes' from the 90s and 'Go Fourth and Multiply' from the 80s which chronicled the rise and fall and rise of a whole range of Far Left groups marxists.org/history/etol/c…
Quite a few in UK media and politics belonged or hung around these groups in the 1980s and 1990s. Their ethos echoes even if the concrete ideology withered.
For example many RCP alumnus went on to found Spiked and even ended up working for Boris Johnson marxists.org/history/etol/c…
Worth taking a look at the background of some of those cheerleading Boris Johnson in newspapers or advising him in government when wondering how in UK politics a certain burn it all down political style drifted from Left to Right
There is some electoral calculation in Macron's rhetoric about Algerian history (which is laughably off btw), but don't underestimate how much those views are prevalent in parts of France's policy and political elites.
I'm always struck by how Macron seems such a product culturally of the late Mitterrand era. The difference between Mitterrand and Macron is that social media circulates every one of Macron's takes on France's neo-colonial sphere much faster to a much wider audience
Something weirdly visionary about this Inconnus sketch where the PS candidate could be Macron today. It's from 1989
Once UK-EU relations and UK trading patterns stabilise I suspect governments will have to advertise it more systematically as an attractive place for skilled migrants. How the UK quality of life crisis is reported globally is diminishing migration pull factors compared to the EU
It's underestimated how the cultural fascination the "Cool Britannia" era exerted on the rest of Europe in the late '90s was an additional factor that raised awareness that the UK was now an attractive place in which to live and work
After 2016 that pull factor is not guaranteed
Now when skilled or semi-skilled EU/non-EU migrants look at potential destinations, the UK has to compete with other potential destinations across the EU where there is labour demand and which have developed global reputations as interesting places with good quality of life