Some idle speculation on platinum coins, 14th amendment, and all that. First of all, using any of these gimmicks would send the signal that we're a troubled country — but of course we are a troubled country, so that's not a deal-killer 1/
Nonetheless, the Biden admin would like to avoid using a gimmicky solution. First best is to shame Rs (and get business pressure to back up the shame) into acting responsibly. 2/
Barring that, which seems unlikely, get Sinemanchin to agree to eliminate filibuster on debt limit by warning of consequences if they don't. If they won't do that, use reconciliation. 3/
The thing is, all of these strategies depend on having people properly scared of default. So it's very much in the administration's interest to deny that there are any backup plans — that it can, if all else fails, break glass and extract the coin 4/
But what if all else does fail? Then the impossible becomes necessary. So I wouldn't make too much of denials that exotic answers are possible. That's what they have to say! 5/

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More from @paulkrugman

26 Sep
OK, the important stuff: I watched the 1st two episodes of Foundation, and ... I'm not sure yet. The show is gorgeous and fun to watch — which may be all that matters. But is it *Foundation*? 1/
FYI: Foundation had a huge influence on my young self. Mathematical social scientists saving civilization? Hey, I got as close as I could. But the novels are aggressively uncinematic 2/
It's not just that there's very little shoot-em-up action, that it's basically guys talking to each other. The whole thrust of the first book and a half is that math rules, and heroes are irrelevant 3/
Read 5 tweets
23 Sep
Leona Helmsley was right: only the little people pay taxes. Well, OK, the richest 400 individuals pay about 8 percent taxes. But that's not much 1/ whitehouse.gov/cea/blog/2021/…
We should all be furious about this; but maybe especially the merely affluent. Take my favorite from the movie Wall Street: "A $400,000 a year working Wall Street stiff, flying first class and being comfortable." According to IRS calculator, that guy pays 28% in fed income tax 2/
Not even considering payroll taxes, which are 15.3% for most Americans but negligible for the rich, and state and local taxes, which are highly regressive 3/
Read 4 tweets
21 Sep
We cannot have a Chinese financial crisis right now. My schedule is already full. Anyway, trying to come up to speed on Evergrande; this post by Michael Pettis is helpful 1/ carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancial…
There seems to be a broad consensus that while bad, this isn't China's Lehman moment. Of course, broad consensuses have been wrong a lot these past 15 years. But here's the thing: even the Lehman moment wasn't really a Lehman moment 2/
What I mean is that the financial disruption of 2008-9 was fairly brief — but the economy stayed depressed for many years thereafter, suggesting that the liquidity crisis was less of the story than longer-term factors 3/
Read 7 tweets
17 Sep
Really surprised to see Greg Mankiw raising the specter of European economies depressed by excessively large welfare states. Even more surprised to see him citing as his main source a 2003(!) paper by Ed Prescott 1/ nytimes.com/2021/09/15/opi…
The image of Europe staggering under the disincentive effects of taxes and social benefits is way out of date. These days prime-age adults are *more* likely to be employed in Europe than in the US 2/
GDP per capita is lower, but mainly because Europeans take much more vacation time than Americans do — and not because of high taxes. Alesina et al debunked that claim (and Prescott) long ago 3/ nber.org/system/files/c…
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
Biden's vaccine mandate is terrific public policy; it is, more or less literally, what the doctor ordered. Is it good politics? We don't know. But one thing worth noting is the contrast with Obama 1/
It's now clear that Republicans effectively sabotaged Obama's economy, slowing the recovery, by imposing fiscal austerity (using completely false claims that they were worried about debt.) And Obama was basically passive, even accepting their premises 2/
Rs are now sabotaging Biden by undermining the fight against Covid; how self-conscious they are about this is something we can argue, but that's how it's working out. And having blocked basic public health measures, they're all set to blame Biden for Covid's persistence 3/
Read 5 tweets
9 Sep
Ricardo Reis is asking the right question: the current rate of inflation, or even the rate over the next year plus, matters less than whether pricing behavior starts to build in expectations of future inflation 1/ brookings.edu/bpea-articles/…
Historically, we've had episodes of high inflation that didn't get built in, and faded quickly; the 70s was exceptional 2/
But how can we tell? Not sure that surveys are the best or at least only approach. Suggestion: look at price- and wage-setting behavior 3/
Read 8 tweets

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