Today’s #COVID19 data in Minnesota is bad news, almost all around. Not only are cases still rising, but after weeks of plateauing so is average positivity rate — up nearly a full percentage point in a week, to 6.6%, the highest since the tail end of the Fall 2020 wave.
Also concerning: after a period where cases were rising among KIDS but not among ADULTS, right now cases are rising in all age brackets.

That includes seniors 70+.
One bright side: ICU hospitalizations for #COVID19 remain flat. Non-ICU hospitalizations still rising.
#COVID19 deaths are a terrible metric to measure what’s going on with the outbreak — they show what was going on weeks ago, and also have a lot of noise. They’re down a bit the last few days but remain elevated.
While #COVID19 testing continues to grow, this isn’t explaining our current case spike. Cases are growing more quickly than tests.
Cases have even ticked up lately in the Twin Cities metro, which had been flat, though the biggest growth continues to be in Greater Minnesota.
Rates of new vaccination remain low:
And things are actually even worse — some cases that should have been in today’s report were delayed due to a technical issue and will show up tomorrow.
This isn’t just one bad day. I account for that. What’s concerning is that things have been trending the wrong way for a week.

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More from @dhmontgomery

6 Oct
The bad #COVID19 news continues in MN — partially explained by some data snafus, but mostly very real.

Not only are new cases expanding, they’re *accelerating*. Same for positivity rate, now over 7%. ImageImage
Bad news: newly reported cases in MN nearly doubled week-over-week
Less bad news: But some of this was a data error due to cases delayed from yesterday’s report
Still bad news: Yesterday was already showing a huge increase, we just shifted part of it back a day.
The Cases and Positivity lines here are moving upwards, which means those stats aren’t just rising but accelerating. This is bad news.

No sign of this in hospitalizations yet, but this often lags case reports. Image
Read 7 tweets
4 Oct
Trivia: Which stadium hosted the most NFL games in the 20th Century?
A hint: the correct answer here is still an active stadium, but it no longer holds the record for most all-time NFL games.
The correct answer here, as some of you guessed: Wrigley Field!

The Bears only moved to Soldier Field in 1971; before that they played at Wrigley for *50 years*. The Chicago Cardinals also played there for 8 years in the 30s.
Read 4 tweets
4 Oct
Today’s #COVID19 data — really the tail end of last week, due to MDH’s reporting delays — is unsettling. Our positivity rate ticked up to 6.4%, the highest this wave to date (and in fact higher than we ever reached this spring, either). This measure had been flat until recently.
Testing volume is still going up — it’s just that the last few days of data have seen cases grow even more quickly.
Cases continue to be pretty flat in the Twin Cities metro; MN’s overall case growth is concentrated in central and western Minnesota.
Read 8 tweets
22 Sep
It’s been just over two weeks since most Minnesota kids returned to school, and the data has become quite clear: the school #COVID19 surge many people expected is here.
Minnesotans aged 10-19 are seeing the highest rates of new infections right now, which is unusual — over the whole outbreak, it’s been working-age adults who’ve tended to have the most cases.

Unclear how much of this is an artifact of expanded testing, though.
Minnesota does not break out its daily testing data by age. We know testing has drastically expanded in Minnesota in recent weeks, and more testing confirms a higher share of infections that were there whether we knew about it or not.
Read 12 tweets
21 Sep
Today’s report saw week-over-week cases and positivity rate rise in Minnesota, with positivity rate crossing 6% for the first time this wave.

But this uptick was sort of expected — LAST Tuesday was full of good news. We’re still below 2 weeks ago’s positivity.
Similarly, tomorrow we can expect our 7-day averages to probably move downward, because last Wednesday’s data (8% daily positivity) will be relatively easy to beat.
So while the trendline looks a little unsettling, I think it’s mostly a statistical artifact. We’ll see, of course. Our rate of change over 2 weeks is still flat.
Read 5 tweets
21 Sep
New poll data! @MPRnews/@StarTribune/@kare11/FRONTLINE Minnesota find a plurality of Minnesota voters believe #COVID19 restrictions in their area were “about right,” with 30% saying they went “too far” and 26% saying “not far enough.” mprnews.org/story/2021/09/…
@MPRnews @StarTribune Here’s how various demographic subgroups broke down on the question of #COVID19 restrictions. “About right” was the dominant feeling in most groups, including (by a slim margin) Republicans. Residents of Northern MN were likely to say they went too far; Democrats not far enough.
@MPRnews @StarTribune Our poll asked these registered voters if they had taken the #COVID19 vaccine. 80% said yes. That’s a little higher than the CDC’s count of vaccinated 18+ Minnesotans — but remember this poll is only of registered voters. Vax rates may be lower among nonvoters.
Read 7 tweets

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