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jeevan patwa Profile picture
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6 Oct, 8 tweets, 2 min read
There is no easy money in stock market

It’s really worrisome to know that many people are coming in the stock market for short term trading after this bull market rally. Came across many young minds who are ignoring their core competency and focusing on trading.
Don’t extrapolate post-corona market returns. This was aberration, abnormal, unusual. Its impossible to earn similar returns every year.

Focus on your core competency and career. Trading will ruin both your career and wealth

Music doesn’t last long. Invest in building your
core competencies like programming skills or engineering skills. That will only help you in long run

I am very bullish on India but trading is not the way to play the India growth story. Only Investing can create serious wealth in long run.
Many are using weekly options and other derivatives instruments to make windfall profits. This is gamble. It can’t generate wealth on sustainable basis. One wrong trade can take away profits of 10 right trades.

Most of these new guys have not seen a bear market.
My humble request to all these new traders, please don’t sacrifice your jobs and core competency for stock market trading.

Stock market is an amazing place to create wealth by investing for long term. But If it’s used in a wrong way then history has examples of people
who lost everything in the market.

One cannot be billionaire by speculating. There is no trader name in the top 100 richest people in the world or in Forbes list. Intelligence is learning from others mistakes, learning from our own mistakes can be costly and time consuming.
Sorry for writing such a long thread but it was disheartening to see many people trying for easy money and I am personally concerned for thier mental and financial health.

There is no easy money in stock market, people who have earned the wealth have slogged a lot.
Please sharpen your investing skills rather than trying your luck in trading…

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More from @jeevanpatwa

jeevan patwa Profile picture
4 Sep
#Ajmerarealty - project execution, faster land monetization and profit visibility can re-rate stock

MMR remains the best market for RE in India because of good demand, realisations and limited supply.

Ajmera realty has got 20 Mn sq ft development potential similar to Oberoi
This is fully owned and completely paid for as against Oberoi where part of it is under JDA and DM model.

Both are MMR focused players.

Oberoi generated 1650 cr projects revenue, 322 cr rentals in FY21. Ajmera will have similar P&L after 5 years with almost 1500 cr project
revenue and 300 cr rentals

MCap of Oberoi is 27500 cr wheras Ajmera is only 1250 crs.

Ajmera has 3 Mn sq ft resi and 3 Mn sq ft commercial in Wadala and 12.5 Mn sq ft in Kanjur marg. It is readying project pipeline to monetize current land bank and looking for more JDA and DM
Read 4 tweets
jeevan patwa Profile picture
8 Jul
#IBullreal – top pick in the sector. Brand, Balance sheet, execution and access to low cost funds will drive value for the combined entity

Post merger, #Embassy will own 45% and Blackstone 10%. This will create institutional platform for investment in real estate sector and
combined entity will be one of the largest real estate companies in India.

In terms of valuation, 18000 cr net surplus, 2000 acres of land valued around 8-10 crs per acre, 1400 crs SEZ land, 42 Mn sq ft commercial space (potential of generating 4200 crs rentals) available at EV
of # 15000 crs. More importantly, with Embassy+Blackstone brand, execution capability and access to institutional money will re-rate the stock to earnings based multiple rather than asset based valuation.

Concerns –
-If Merger doesn’t happen – Currently only NCLT approval is
Read 6 tweets
jeevan patwa Profile picture
7 Jul
#RealEstate – story of structural reforms. Brand, Balance sheet, Execution and access to low cost funds will drive the value

Last 8-10 years, real estate sector faced multiple challenges with huge inventory build-up, demand slow down, liquidity crunch, drying source of funds..
Sector has given very lackluster performance for these years, but dynamics are now changing with reforms done by the government like GST and RERA. Demonetisation was actually negative for the sector in the short run but for long term, it proved to be a boon.
These structural reforms cleanup the sector with 70% competition gone, market share shifted from unorganized to organized players.

Brand, Balance sheet, Execution and access to low cost funds will drive the value in the sector henceforth.

Customer preference has shifted from
Read 6 tweets
jeevan patwa Profile picture
12 Feb
#Suvenpharma

My analysis after Concall
-ANDAs contribution to PAT was zero in FY20. It will be biggest growth driver for company with 5 already launched and 6-7 getting launched next year. Company working on one 505 b(2) opportunity which can materialize after Mar 22..
this can be large opportunity..Overall I estimate ANDAs to contribute 200-250 crs PAT in next 3 years..
-Rising pharma contribution was 46 crs in FY20. With company out of bankruptcy and 100+ ANDAs pipeline, PAT contribution will keep rising..
-CDMO pharma will have growth drivers in the form of 1-2 commercial molecules in next 18-24 months and moving from intermediates to API and formulation. Management said they are talking to 2 large customers on these lines
-CDMO non pharma has 2 molecules currently, 2 more will
Read 4 tweets
jeevan patwa Profile picture
11 Feb
#MSTC results - right way to look at these numbers is to add back provisions to PAT and then compare. If add provisions to PBT and then take tax rate as 33%, your number will match with the reported tax.

Provisions relates to cash and carry business which has been stopped
a year back. There was around 120 crs of provisions related to that. I wish it should write off everything once for all so that it can start next year on a clean slate..

Only negative according to me is no Q-o-Q growth in e-comm revenue which I was expecting due to higher
realisations during the qtr.

Its your call to hold or sell..this is the story of future... If you want to play on scrappage policy then #MSTC is biggest beneficiary...provision write off was due and may happen in Q4 again but I hope from next year...things will look different
Read 4 tweets
jeevan patwa Profile picture
30 Jan
#Lauruslabs ARV - Cash machine

People are very critical of ARV business of Laurus but it has the best dynamics for Laurus. Unlike other APIs (Paracetamol, Ibuprofen, Azithromycin, Metformin etc.) where there are more than 20-30 players globally,
ARV has only 6 players (only 4 serious players – Mylan, Laurus, Auro and Hetero) globally with Laurus being world leader. This leadership has come from years of research and process innovation. It is the lowest cost producer in the world for these APIs.
The beauty is, it has become a cash machine for Laurus now, throwing enormous amount of cash which is now being deployed to expand other businesses like Biologics, CDMO and non ARV API and formulations.

API capacity growing by 30%, formulations by 100% which will be all non ARV
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