Attached is a thread showing the transition of Major Hurricane Sam into the a massive 1400km wide extratropical Cyclone (heading towards Iceland.

Here we see latest forecasts of the impact on Europe - beginning with a PWAT (water/energy) 5 day forecast.
The main feature we see in this animation is a cold dry air blast coming in from the east and colliding with a high pressure system located initially roughly speaking over the Bay of Biscay. The water concentration over the Med/Italy Alps suggests significant precipitation there.
This forecast shows the very complicated evolution of water transport over this five day period - JetStream 11-18km high winds carrying elevated moisture into Europe from the North Atlantic.
Add these two together and you get the rainfall outcomes which are what Europe needs to be concerned about. The already extremely wet conditions over Italy and the Alps are forecast to continue throughout the forecast window.
Here is the latest ECMWF (Euro model) high resolution model rainfall forecast for most of the effected area. One of the key issues will be the fact that these areas have already had several days of rain. There are very heavy rainfalls forecast in several spots.
The other areas which is clearly in the eye of this storm are Greece and the Balkans. First Greece (this is a 7 day forecast from @NOAA's GFS) the Italy one is just 4 days.)
And here's the balkans, also 7 days.

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More from @althecat

8 Oct
This (2nd image) is what >> un.org/ruleoflaw/them… << the @UN says about the the need for Freedom of Information laws to be in place in nation states to protect freedom of expression as per the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. ImageImage
And this is a recent (2020) statement issued by the independent OHCHR [Office of the high commissioner of human rights] issued about the absence of implementation of Freedom of Information within UN institutions. ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/…
“The UN and many international organizations lack the kind of freedom of information policies that are increasingly the norm among governments,” - David Kaye said before presenting a new report to the UN General Assembly. Image
Read 11 tweets
8 Oct
2 damaging pieces about Ethiopia in @TheEconomist today, an editorial and a report. Both behind a paywall, and inaccessible to most Ethiopians

"Abiy against the world

Ethiopia is losing friends and influence

An essential Western ally now faces sanctions and isolation" ImageImageImage
The editorial is the more damaging of the two, and links to the report, upon which it is loosely based.

"No favours for killers
Ethiopia is deliberately starving its own citizens
The world should apply whatever pressure it can to force it to stop" ImageImageImage
LINKS:
Editorial >> economist.com/leaders/2021/1…

The report is linked at the bottom with the phrase "increasingly paranoid and erratic" used to describe @AbiyAhmedAli

Report >> economist.com/middle-east-an… Image
Read 4 tweets
7 Oct
I'd love to know who @jack talked to when he visited Ethiopia and what they talked about?

The role of @Twitter in reversing the information warfare dominance of TPLF, based mostly on lies, and replacing it with narratives based on reality has been an outstanding success.
There are spectacular differences between the approaches applied by the TPLF's cyber corps and those of Ethiopia.

TPLF: trolling, lying, gaslighting, bland unspecific allegations.
ETHIOPIA: humour, amplifying, revealing, informing, investigating, thanking and politely rebuffing
On the news media side the TPLF maintain clear dominance however. They have put in a lot off effort with things like story fabrication and placement, engineered and carefully deployed leaks.
Read 12 tweets
7 Oct
UN Interference in Ethiopia. Exhibit #1

An extraordinarily foolish oped by Mark Lowcock. UN Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator between 2017 and 2021.

I.E. The official in charge of Tigray when war began.

cgdev.org/blog/how-destr…
This oped is indicates that from the outset the war, the UN’s perspective on Tigray was divorced from reality.

TPLF attacks on multiple ENDF bases, killing 1000s of soldiers & officers, stealing heavy weaponry and attacking a neighboring state. Is not a “political dispute”. ImageImage
I can only conclude from this intemperate and delusional account of recent history that Sir Mark Lowcock is anxious, that when the causes of the humanitarian disaster in Tigray are determined, they will be sheeted home to his leadership.
Read 4 tweets
6 Oct
And @USAmbUN Stakeout:

The expulsions are an affront. To the UN (and others). These are self inflicted wounds. And they reflect how this is conflict where Ethiopians are killing and raping Ethiopians. It is Ethiopia's leaders who are letting down Ethiopia. Image
@USAmbUN She goes on a bit. You can watch the video here >> media.un.org/en/asset/k17/k… (3:17 mins in).
Q1: Reuters - are you going to impose sanctions on Ethiopia?

A: The fact of the UNSC meeting today was an action. It was not an action that was easy to take. The US have tools at our disposal. It could be a resolution... Image
Read 5 tweets
6 Oct
The appearance by @antonioguterres at the end of the meeting is perhaps the most striking bit of all of this.

"It is my duty to defend the honour of the United Nations," he said when asked about his "right of reply" at end.
VIDEO: (Beginning 2:36mins) media.un.org/en/asset/k17/k… Image
"The UN has no political agenda in Ethiopia. Our agenda is just one to support the Ethiopian people, Tigrayans, Amaharas, Afaris, Somalis, that have suffered so much. We cannot see people going on dying, because of bullets, because of hunger...
"... we need to do everything to stop this conflict. We need to do everything to ensure that humanitarian aid is distributed everywhere to everybody. We need to do everything for a dialogue to be established among Ethiopians to solve the problems in Ethiopia."
Read 7 tweets

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