Thread by @JacobsBen

A few extra bits on the #NUFC takeover.

Firstly, to reiterate, piracy has always been the main issue stopping a deal. It's largely why the EPL argue a lack of separation, since then they can tie PIF directly to the KSA State and the KSA State directly to beoutQ.

For 18 months a vocal proportion of #NUFC Twitter have dismissed piracy or failed to link it to the separation argument. But now beIN have their license back & a settlement, the most likely scenario is arbitration doesn't proceed since a takeover can be green-lighted without it.

The reason this may happen in 2-3 weeks (or even sooner) is because direct talks between PIF and the EPL have taken place since early September. These were led by Yasir Al-Rumayyan & Majid Al Qasabi.

In essence, PIF asked the EPL directly what would need to change to make headway.

beIN's license was actually always likely to be restored. That's been clear since January and is part of a process far bigger than the takeover.

But GAC were slow to act, & the wider KSA government conscious of their WTO appeal and ongoing arbitration with beIN. They didn't want to just hand the license back in case it weakened their legal position & since they stated they removed it for commercial breaches not politics.

The EPL relayed to PIF that, regardless of any takeover outcome, they must engage directly with beIN, shut down any offshoots of beoutQ and drop their WTO appeal. 2/3 have happened and the WTO aspect is covered in the beIN settlement.

The irony here is these conversations were much broader than #NUFC and with Al Qasabi, who is also media minister. So it's not exactly a glowing example of separation between Newcastle and the KSA government. But EPL also had to engage since the issue is bigger than just #NUFC.

In other words, even if there was no takeover, EPL would still have to talk to Al Qasabi about a way forward so any talks were logical if arguably crossing boundaries.

So now, unless EPL have wider concerns about PIF/KSA State, and still pursue arbitration, which feels the less likely scenario, sources tell me the situation could resolve itself pretty quickly.

It's actually a little farcical, that for all Newcastle's bullish statements and dual legal attacks, and despite Amanda Staveley's repeated denials piracy was relevant... the takeover may well happen based on one 'simple' thing: giving beIN their license back.

If that proves to be the case, & as much as fans will rightly be excited and relieved, there has to be an inquest as to why this wasn't resolved sooner. One reason is PIF have never had much direct engagement with EPL. And now they've seemingly taken matters into their own hands.

There is again an irony here since the 'Newcastle aspect' of PIF can't really influence this kind of change. But the 'government' within PIF can. So the only question now is whether EPL are satisfied with the outcome over the process and if so are willing to approve the sale.

Talking to sources from all sides, there is certainly a confidence arbitration won't run its course. And Newcastle would only let that happen for one reason... a Saudi sale.