* Combined Pos% below 10% as of 9/26
* Cases down 60% from 9/14 peak
* Total Beds tagged C19 down to 12.23%, census below 7800, down 42% from 8/25 peak
* Fatalities peaked 9/1 at 326. Declines since.
* Total positivity rate as of 9/26 at 9.69%
* At the peak of this on 9/13, we were running 1.12 million tests a week. As of 9/26 we're running 821K per week
* Positive Tests are declining much more rapidly than total Tests
* Covidestim Rt at 0.68.
2/n .
10/5 Cases
* 7DMA Case Peak was 9/14 at 15,419
* 10/5 7DMA is 6,228, down 60% from 9/14
* 7DMA rate of decline near 30% Week over week
* Into a steeper decline than we saw Summer 2020
3/n .
10/5 Hospitalizations
* Single Day Peak was 8/25 - 13932
* Current census is 7769, lowest since 8/3
* 7DMA declining at a rate of 19.4% week over week
* % of beds tagged as Covid down to 12.23%. Peak was 21.88% on 8/30
* ICU beds in use lowest since 8/8
4/n .
10/5 - Hosp Covid Admits
* Statewide Admits down 52% from their peak on 8/25
* Statewide 7DMA Rate of Decline of 21% Week over Week
* New admissions are leading indicators on hospitalizations, so we will continue seeing hospitalization declines in the coming days
5/n .
10/5 Fatalities
* Fatality Peak was 9/1, 326
* Compare to Winter peak of 1/13 - 381. Virtually identical hospitalization curve
* Winter peak had 23 days w over 300 fatalities. Summer 2021 had 3
* Summer 2021 finally overtook Summer 2020 w nearly 40% more hospitalizations
6/n .
10/5 Conclusion
* Full decline in leading through trailing indicators
* Looks like we will stay in full decline for a while
* All around good week!
7/end
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Battleground states - 2024 President
10/22/2024 Summary
1/n
* Summarizes the analysis I've done on all 7 states
* Spread & Movement is based on last 10 polls in each state
* Trump has a clear lead in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
* Movement is to Trump in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
Comparing polls on Oct 22 of both 2016 & 2020 with their final results:
* Trump's Oct 22, 2016 polling underestimated him by an average of 5.7 points
* Trump's Oct 22, 2020 polling underestimated him by an average of 3.1 points
2/n
Battleground state summary - Page 2
* Avg movement 2016+2020 - Trump +4.4
* If I do regression, 2016 --> 2020 --> 2024 (polls getting better at capturing Trump Vote), I can project 2024 movement of Trump +1.9
* Regression projects Trump wins all 7 by 2.0 to 3.5 points
* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday
* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%
2/n
11/21 Airlines Page 3
* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically
* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
As of 5/6:
* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.
2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases
* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising
* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there
The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.
Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.
2/n
5/11 Airlines Page 3
Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.
The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.
* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.
* 2 tweets on testing today
As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...
2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2
* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.