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27 Sep, 4 tweets, 3 min read
@realmoney
Sell Growth
This morning the yield on the ten year US note rose by another three basis points to 1.491%.
Meanwhile the price of crude oil is +$1.05/barrell and is closing in on $80.
And the prices of nearly everything has risen dramatically.
With rates rising and cost pressures persistent (and not likely transitory) it is time to sell/short the growth segment of the market - which typically behaves poorly under a higher inflation and interest rate backdrop.
I suspect that the most growth elements - large cap tech (FAANG plus M) will be under pressure and it is difficult for me to see (particularly after the magnitude of the rally from last Monday) the overall market (read: S and P Index) perform very well under these circumstances.
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More from @DougKass

Dougie Kass Profile picture
24 Sep
@realmoney Sep 23, 2021 | 08:25 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Our World, and Welcome to It!
Uber ($UBER) and Lyft ($LYFT) have no cars.
General Motors ($GM) has no chips.
Airbnb ($ABNB) has no real estate.
Evergrande has no money.
Robinhood ($HOOD) has no shareholders equity.
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value.
Tesla ($TSLA) has no auto-based profits.
Zoom ($ZM) and Peloton ($PTON) have no physical plant.
Precious metals have no friends.
Ark Invest ($ARKK) may soon have less liquidity.
Congress and The Fed have no discipline.
"Talking heads" have no humility.
The Emperor has no clothes.
This is the new economy.
This is the new stock market.
Oh, and... investors have no brains. @jimcramer @tomkeene @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @SaraEisen @carlquintanilla @riskreversal @EpsilonTheory @convertbond
Read 4 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
16 Sep
Clip art of a rock just sold for 400 ether, or about $1.3 million… The transaction marks the latest sale of EtherRock, a brand of crypto collectible that’s been around since 2017 – making it one of the oldest non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on the block.
EtherRock is, as the name implies, a JPEG of a cartoon rock, built and sold on the ethereum blockchain. There are only 100 out there, and that scarcity is part of what’s driving up its value. So, what are these rock pics good for?
According to the EtherRock website, “These virtual rocks serve NO PURPOSE beyond being able to be bought and sold, and giving you a strong sense of pride in being an owner of 1 of the only 100 rocks in the game :)”
Read 4 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
14 Sep
Coming up on @TSTRMPro

Fear and Loathing On Wall Street
* We remain in a 'Bull Market In Complacency'
* There is certainty and precision of the bullish consensus despite a wide range of possible market and economic outcomes - many of which are adverse and market unfriendly
* A deeper than expected (and "inconceivable") market drawdown may be growing more likely
* Many make the case that stocks are inexpensive to an another, overvalued asset class (bonds) - that makes little sense to me (particularly at current equity valuations)
* Legacy financials, asset gatherers and retailers are among the most vulnerable market sectors
“No sympathy for the devil; keep that in mind. Buy the ticket, take the ride...and if it occasionally gets a little heavier than what you had in mind, well...
Read 5 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
3 Sep
@CNBCFastMoney In the entire conversation on $NFLX there is no discussion of fundamentals @MelissaLeeCNBC
Just a bunch of technicals and glittering generalities...
Why I Am Short Netflix
* Netflix's first mover advantage is likely to be challenged in the years ahead
* The company's growth rate will likely moderate relative to expectations as the streaming market grows more crowded
The best days, from a rate of change viewpoint - in subscribers and in revenues, is probably behind Netflix (NFLX) and I expect a rerating - lower - in the
company's shares.
Netflix has had first mover advantage in the streaming business for quite a long time.
Though the company's market dominance will likely continue there are accumulating signposts that demand has been pulled forward and that its leadership in the marketplace
Read 9 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
26 Aug
@TSTRMPro Aug 25, 2021 | 09:25 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Look Below the Market's Surface for Clues of Future Stock Market Performance
* Equity investors continue to ignore credit trends, overvaluation, the persistency of inflation, the likelihood of rising interest rates, slowing domestic
and global economic growth, a likely monetary pivot and undisciplined (and modern) fiscal and monetary policy which continues to distort equity prices
* A trend in motion tends to stay in motion until an outside influence is imposed
* But we should always look below the market's
surface for contrary market clues
* Investors/traders often sell and buy at inappropriate turning points in the market
* Credit leads, providing a deep footprint and clues for us to interpret and help us navigate the markets
* The market's downside risks dwarf upside rewards
Read 5 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
22 Aug
Today's phones, Twitter and other social media platforms have made people assholes
The addiction to smart phones have produced a short- term dopamine driven feedback loop which has made the average high school kids' level of anxiety equivalent to the average level of
a psychiatric patient in the 1950s.
Phones make for shady, needy, passive-aggressive, mean and fake people (fake outrage, fake pretty, fake brave, fake supportive). Its become more imp't to take a picture of you looking like you are having a good time than really having
a good time. Dating has been reduced from a quest for true love to choosing from a menu - "I think I will have the Kelly tonite."
Read 6 tweets

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