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Jim Bianco Profile picture
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7 Oct, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Quinnipiac is one of the more highly thought of polling organizations.

Their new poll out was terrible for Biden.

And this might be the signal that is causing the mainstream media to finally admit Biden is in deep trouble.

poll.qu.edu/poll-release?r…

1/6
No less than Jake Tapper on CNN could not longer ignore Biden's collapsing approval rating anymore.

2/6
Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight (owned by ABC News) SHOULD HAVE been all over this.

They have been strangely quiet ... until today.

They note that Afghanistan and COVID are both disappearing from the headlines and Biden gets worse and worse.

3/6
 fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden…
Sum it up and Biden's average of all polls has taken a another big hit again today ... to another new low.

And it seems like the mainstream media is hitting, or about to hit, the panic button as this is getting impossible to ignore.

4/6
If you expect no drama with the budget, spending, the infrastructure bill, a hike in the debt ceiling, and "more Powell" ... you are assuming we DO NOT have a President with imploding approval ratings.

But his approval rating is imploding and not rebounding.

5/6
And to head off a common twitter retort, Biden is now at Trump's level right before election day. Or, levels that one cannot win re-election.

So, why are democrats fighting with each other?
Biden is seen as damaged and lacks political clout to force a deal.

6/6

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
3 Oct
Powell reappointment is trading back at an all-time low, Brainard at a new high.

The Fed really screwed this up and it is going to hurt Powell and the institution badly.

A thread to explain

1/9
@greg_ip @ctorresreporter @steveliesman @mckonomy @vtg2 @NickTimiraos
First, I've known Rich Clarida for years and he really is a good/decent person. I believe that he might be the victim or poor timing on his trades rather than something sinister like insider trading.

But, this is DC and Rich wanted to play.

2/9
The Fed knew his disclosure statement was bad. That is why the released it late on a Friday.

Confirming it was bad is Powell getting reappointed took a big hit this weekend.

Powell traded near 80% before the Clarida disclosure Fri PM and, as of this writing, he is 61%.

3/9
Read 9 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
2 Oct
A lot of news tonight.

The Democrats met to try and come to a deal, Biden spoke to the D caucus late this afternoon, no reporters, and no mobile phones were allowed. So this account in Politico, which is sympathetic to Ds, comes from other Ds in the room.

1/6
The open!

President Biden deflated the air of urgency around a bipartisan infrastructure vote and tamped down liberal dreams of a $3.5 trillion spending bill in a speech before House Democrats Friday that left some members fuming.
-
He made it worse!
2/6
politico.com/news/2021/10/0…
Remember the debt ceiling is tied to the infrastructure and (now formerly) $3.5 trillion spending bills via reconciliation.

With no deal on these two bills, we get no debt ceiling hike. Biden further said there is no urgency, then how is the debt ceiling getting raised?

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
29 Sep
More and more it is looking like the Democrats are not able to agree among themselves. A thread on what is might mean for markets.

1/5
Moderate Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has issued a statement over his refusal to back his party's $3.5 trillion spending plan, calling "trillions more on new and expanded government programs" the "definition of fiscal insanity"

2/5
zerohedge.com/political/sena…
Progressives want huge spending, moderates like Manchin, want far less.

Why can't they get on the same page? Maybe it has to do with the elephant in the room, the chart below. The leader of the Democrat party continues to implode, making a new low yet again today.

3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
28 Sep
Solid signals the debt ceiling is going to be a problem, and might be a catalyst (not they catalyst) behind today's risk market selloff.

Yes, it eventually gets resolved but the fear it will be messy and chaotic this time around.

A thread to explain.

1/6
First, their is 1.3 trillion in Fed reverse repo (RRP). The Fed is offering 5 basis points in this RRP facility

Their is no reason for a T-Bill to have a yield above the 5 bps RRP rate.

2/6
Here is the bill curve out the next 9 mos and the Oct 18 date that the govt runs out of money.

The only bill yield yields above 5 bps is from Oct 19 to Oct 28.

By trading above the RRP rate after Oct 18 signals the debt ceiling is going to be a problem in this time period.

3/6
Read 9 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
24 Sep
A quick timeline about China and cryptos for those that think something significant was announced today (aka the financial media).

Dec 6, 2013 - China banned bitcoin knocking the price down 50% (from $1200 to $800)

forbes.com/sites/kashmirh…

1/6
Sep 11, 2017 - China bans crypto exchanges. Its price dropped to $4,100

2/6
theverge.com/2017/9/11/1628…
Apr 9, 2019 - China readies to ban bitcoin mining
bitcoin broke below $5,000 on the news.

3/6
 theguardian.com/technology/201…
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
22 Sep
I think everyone is getting Evergrande backwards.

It's not what a default means for China. Rather it's what happened to China to cause a default.

Start with this chart. Economists are hacking China growth forecasts, and the downgrades are accelerating.

1/5
These downgrades are consistent with the Economic Strength Indices (ESI) compiled by our colleagues at @DataArbor . They measure incoming economic data versus its 1-year average.

China’s ESI has been falling and recently turned negative.

2/5
Currently, China (orange) is the only large economy with an ESI below zero.

3/5
Read 5 tweets

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