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Institute for Fiscal Studies Profile picture
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7 Oct, 5 tweets, 4 min read
NEW: English #councils will need billions more from government and big #counciltax rises just to maintain services at their pre-COVID levels.

Read our #IFSGreenBudget chapter on local government funding, funded by @NuffieldFound > ifs.org.uk/publications/1…
One issue with using council tax to raise revenues is that increases generate less for councils in poorer parts of the country.

This means bigger increases to tax rates or cuts to services in poorer areas, unless government redistributes grant funding from richer areas.
As COVID pressures abate, underlying demand and cost pressures will grow, pushing up what councils must spend to maintain services.

Our central projection is that councils will have to spend £10bn more in 2024 than in 2019 – but several factors could push costs up even more.
The government is providing £5.4bn over the next three years for social care reform. It seems unlikely it can achieve everything it wants with this amount – long-term, the reforms are more like £5bn a year.

Without extra funding, some care recipients could actually lose out.
Read the full #IFSGreenBudget chapter for our analysis of issues for Wales, funding and local tax reform, devolution, and social care, and join our event at 11am today here > ifs.org.uk/events/1933

ifs.org.uk/publications/1…

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More from @TheIFS

Institute for Fiscal Studies Profile picture
8 Oct
NEW: The gap between private and state school spending per pupil in England has more than doubled in the past decade.

@lukesibieta on the growing gap between private and state school spending per pupil, funded by @NuffieldFound.

ifs.org.uk/publications/1… Image
Total state school spending per pupil in England dropped from £8,000 in 2009–10 to £7,100 in 2020–21. In that time, net private school fees rose from £11,100 to £13,600.

Private school sixth form fees are 3 times more than funding levels for sixth forms in state schools. Image
Despite private school fees increasing by more than 20% in real terms since 2010, the share of pupils at private schools in England has barely budged over the last decade (6.5% in 2020).

Private school fees are over 90% higher than present spending levels in state schools. Image
Read 4 tweets
Institute for Fiscal Studies Profile picture
8 Sep
NEW: The past 40 years shows NHS spending plans are almost always topped up.

If history repeats itself, the ‘temporary’ increases in NHS funding could end up permanently swallowing up the money raised by the tax rise, leaving little for social care.

ifs.org.uk/publications/1…
The extra funding provided for the NHS in yesterday's announcement will result in spending growing at 3.9% a year between 2018−19 and 2024−25.

This is exactly the same rate of growth as was planned between 2018−19 and 2023−24.
This suggests little in the way of virus-related spending after 2024.

A future top up could be required – but even without one, health spending is set to account for an ever-growing share of total day-to-day public service spending: 44% by 2024−25, up from 27% in 1999−00.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for Fiscal Studies Profile picture
8 Sep
NEW REPORT: In their 30s, children with parents in the wealthiest fifth of their generation had average net wealth six times greater than those with parents in the poorest fifth.

Read our @ESRC funded report on wealth inequality > ifs.org.uk/publications/1…

THREAD [1/6]
Having wealthy parents is particularly important for getting to the top of the wealth distribution.

Children of the wealthiest fifth of parents are almost three times as likely to be in the wealthiest fifth in their generation as those with average parental wealth.

[2/6]
Children of wealthier parents are much more likely to be homeowners by age 30.

65% for those with parents in the top third of the wealth distribution owned a house, compared to against 56% and 41% for those whose parents were in the middle and bottom thirds, respectively.

[3/6]
Read 7 tweets
Institute for Fiscal Studies Profile picture
6 Sep
NEW: Home learning improved substantially over the course of the pandemic – but this still leaves huge learning inequalities from the first lockdown baked in.

Read our new @NuffieldFound funded report on learning inequalities > ifs.org.uk/publications/1…

[THREAD 1/5] Image
Secondary school students’ learning time rose from 22 hours per week in the first lockdown to 29 hours in the second school closures.

Despite these improvements, 40% of children still did not meet the government’s minimum guidelines for learning time.

[2/5] Image
In Autumn 2020, only 40% of pupils were offered interactive resources like online classes for self-isolating.

Support was worse for poorer pupils; 43% of secondary school pupils from the richest families were offered online classes, compared to 35% of poorer pupils.

[3/5] Image
Read 5 tweets
Institute for Fiscal Studies Profile picture
15 Jun 20
#COVID19 means the geography of vulnerabilities in England has shifted away from traditional North–South or urban–rural divides.

Policymakers at different levels will need to coordinate their response.

New research funded by @NuffieldFound: ifs.org.uk/inequality/the…
There is a ‘patchwork’ of vulnerability to the #coronavirus crisis across England. But some local authorities do look vulnerable in multiple ways.

There are nine local authorities where public health, local jobs and families are all more vulnerable to the crisis than average.
Vulnerabilities to the #COVID19 crisis do not always overlap geographically.

Areas where residents look particularly vulnerable to the health effects aren't in general those likely to be hit hardest by job losses. Areas with more children at risk tend to be different again.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for Fiscal Studies Profile picture
6 Apr 20
The lockdown in response to the #coronavirus pandemic has effectively shut down many sectors of the economy.

These shut-downs will affect the youngest and lowest paid workers, and women, the most.

Our new research: ifs.org.uk/publications/1…
The lockdown is likely to hit younger workers the hardest.

At the start of the #coronavirus pandemic, employees aged under 25 were about two and a half times as likely to work in a sector that is now shut down as other employees.
In the short run, many young people will have the cushion of the earnings of parents or other household members during the #coronavirus pandemic.

But the long-run effects of sector shut-downs on their career prospects are could be severe.
Read 5 tweets

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