Thread by @benrileysmith

Lots of chatter about an early election on the fringes of Tory conference.

Here are four arguments for why it won’t happen, being posited by Boris’s inner circle…

1/ A big factor in how the Tories do at the next election is whether the Red Wall voters see (or feel) tangible proof that ‘levelling up’ is happening.

The more time you have, the more likely that can be seen. New roads, hospitals, cops, nurses, railways etc that were promised.

2/ Things are going to get rocky.

NHS waiting lists will rise, even with the new money. Courts backlog will drag on. Fuel bills soaring. Inflation creeping up, eating into wages. Plus an end to unusual pandemic politics.

2022 will be tough. 2024 vote = more time for recovery.

3/ Boundary changes. Tory high command reckons they benefit significantly from adjustments coming in seat boundaries

Public estimates suggest 5-10 more seats for the Tories just standing still. (Esp in England).

Changes done by May 2024 vote, but possibly not for an early one.

4/ Don’t underestimate the deep scarring from May’s 2017 snap vote. Majority lost despite starting miles ahead in polls

Voters sick of politics being so prominent in their lives during Covid, Team Boris thinks (hence ‘get on with the job’ slogan). Going early just a huge gamble.