Vaccination of healthy children not necessary before opening schools, writes @DrLahariya
1. Severe disease risk close to zero (exceptions don’t define policy)
2. Current vaccines not very effective in blocking virus infection in nose
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theindiaforum.in/article/reopen… @TheIndiaForum
1. Severe disease risk close to zero (exceptions don’t define policy)
2. Current vaccines not very effective in blocking virus infection in nose
1/
theindiaforum.in/article/reopen… @TheIndiaForum
When we view the outside world while standing in the ICU, it is easy to be tricked into believing that the whole world is falling severely ill.
It is true that a tiny % of children fall ill, but that % is less than 0.008 (Kerala) and is ~made up of children with comorbidity.
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It is true that a tiny % of children fall ill, but that % is less than 0.008 (Kerala) and is ~made up of children with comorbidity.
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Which is why if we only look at the severely ill children, we will not be able to see the massive denominator of healthy children who were not affected significantly by the virus.
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This also brings up the so-called NNT (number needed to treat). Basically it is a measure of how many people need to be vaccinated to create a better outcome in 1 person.
Obviously the fewer the better.
NNT for older people is small, but for younger people it is much more.
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Obviously the fewer the better.
NNT for older people is small, but for younger people it is much more.
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Thus, the question is whether injecting hundreds of thousands of low risk healthy children will make a difference.
One must not ignore the adverse outcomes cause by vaccines, fortunately there are enough legitimate publications that show these, despite early denials.
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One must not ignore the adverse outcomes cause by vaccines, fortunately there are enough legitimate publications that show these, despite early denials.
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E.g. The risk of myocarditis is increasingly more common (as experts got over the initial tendency of universal denial) and is now estimated at near 1 : 7000.
We do not know the long term effects of this apparently “self limiting condition”. Will it lead to cardiomyopathy?
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We do not know the long term effects of this apparently “self limiting condition”. Will it lead to cardiomyopathy?
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When we give a vaccine to a small number of people, the impact of very rare but serious adverse outcomes will be small. That’s basic math. (vaccine phase 3 trials are proof)
But when the same product is endorsed for millions of people, the negative impact will be greater.
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But when the same product is endorsed for millions of people, the negative impact will be greater.
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In older age groups, this risk-benefit balance is unequivocally in favour of the vaccine. For instance, a 75 year-old is 220 times more likely to die than a 20 year-old with COVID-19.
But when we are talking about children, this equation doesn’t hold.
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But when we are talking about children, this equation doesn’t hold.
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Even less discussed in this context is the inability of present-day vaccines to stop nasal infection, (a significant number of which is asymptomatic). I will outline the recent Texas prison outbreak which perhaps gives the closest estimate of what will happen in a population.
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A COVID outbreak in a Texas prison infected 70% of fully vaccinated inmates and 93% of the unvaccinated.
Indirect implication: if an outbreak occurs in a classroom, 3/4 vaccinated children can get infected.
Thus, vaccination cannot be made a prerequisite for school opening.
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Indirect implication: if an outbreak occurs in a classroom, 3/4 vaccinated children can get infected.
Thus, vaccination cannot be made a prerequisite for school opening.
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Will add our own observations from Kerala. The impact of “Long COVID” among children is ~nil, 23 out of 25 paediatricians said there were no cases of long COVID in their practice in Kerala.
Only one doctor saw a slight uptick, and one reported a case of IBS aggravation.
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Only one doctor saw a slight uptick, and one reported a case of IBS aggravation.
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Thus, on many counts, universal vaccination of healthy children cannot be justified. From morbidity, death, transmission and Long COVID.
I agree with Dr @DrLahariya views expressed in this article.
11/11
I agree with Dr @DrLahariya views expressed in this article.
11/11
Paper from Kings College London, Cardiology dept, pre pandemic era about the outcomes of myocarditis
see thread above👆 for context
see thread above👆 for context
https://twitter.com/RajeevJayadevan/status/1446723904404279297
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