Thread by @gelliottmorris

I… don’t know. This objection rings hollow to me. In part because educational polarization is a long term trend (we have 70 years of it at this point) with stable growth — but really because our conversations on this are usually conditioned on patterns staying roughly the same.

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1446525996010663937

You can make the argument that, well, correlates of voting will change over the next decade, so the rural white non-college bias of the Senate will get “solved” somehow — but it’s still a huge problem today, and it should be the mean expectation for the future too.

So yeah. I don’t think predictions for 5-10 years from now have too high uncertainty to not be useful. But smart people are conditioning on these things in convos, & I think they’re right. After all I think it’s *un*reasonable to think edu polarization will substantially reverse!

In other words, the fact that correlates *might* change enough over the next 10 years to dig Dems out of their structural hole doesn’t make the implications for those biases on democratic theory any less severe — and it’s likelier than not that things will get worse, not better.