1/n In honor of my friend @gladstein’s excellent article on El Salvador and Bitcoin Beach (bitcoinmagazine.com/.amp/culture/t…), I have made keto pupusas! I found the article unconvincing as to the merits of Bitcoin, but it sure made me hungry!
2/n The article highlights the ease of transactions for American multinationals (McDonald’s, Wendy’s etc) and the impact of generous bitcoin donations from around the world. But it (un)ironically highlights that “hard” money prevents redistribution in social programs and that
3/n dollarization largely benefited the wealthy at the expense of the working class — a point I have made repeatedly regarding bitcoin. There is no native bitcoin mining to speak of, although the increasingly dictatorial Bukele plans to utilize non-surplus energy to mine for the
4/n govt sector in the hopes of weaning El Salvador from the need to conform to international financial standards much like Chavez exploited Venezuelan oil. Who knows if his scheme will work, but Alex notes his concern…
5/5 Overall a balanced piece that I enjoyed reading. Alex is understandably concerned by Bukele while hopeful about Bitcoin; I remain skeptical of both and couldn’t help but hear the overtones of “The Great White Savior” in the foreign donations/demands for bitcoin adoption.
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@CiPrep@davidein@muddywaters@wolfejosh@SimplifyETFs 2/n @CiPrep is a charter middle and high school in the Coney Island area of Brooklyn. The vast majority of students are economically disadvantaged (86% qualify for subsidized lunch programs).
@CiPrep@davidein@muddywaters@wolfejosh@SimplifyETFs 3/n Embracing these challenges, CIPrep has managed to excel with absolute performance near the top of all schools and community adjusted performance off the charts.
CI Prep scholars had a 100% college acceptance rate for the third consecutive year in 2020.
@coloradotravis@0xMakesy@jchervinsky@SantiagoAuFund@ross_phelan 1/n I thought it was a very good rant. Many of the optimistic takes you highlight are consistent with my views. But I’ll ask again, why do we need Bitcoin (or Ethereum) for this? Blockchain doesn’t require bitcoin and digital scarcity doesn’t require Blockchain.
@coloradotravis@0xMakesy@jchervinsky@SantiagoAuFund@ross_phelan 2/n Peer to peer with redistribution of profits has occurred in many markets without (necessarily) the end result being superior. A simple example is the advent of digitalization and decentralization of market makers (from Specialists) on exchanges. Different? Sure. Better? Maybe
@coloradotravis@0xMakesy@jchervinsky@SantiagoAuFund@ross_phelan 3/n Ken Griffin is much richer and more powerful than Peter Kellogg (Spear Leeds & Kellogg) ever was. Unlike Kellogg’s ancestor (also Peter fwiw), he was not there with excess capital in 1932 to help rebuild in 2008. Instead he’s required a few bailouts. In the meantime, check
1/n Apparently I’m causing some confusion here. Obviously portfolio insurance, lack of circuit breakers, the “untested” S&P futures market, lack of put skew, “slow” computer systems, market maker lines of credit, a new Fed Chair, etc etc influenced the outcome
2/n BUT all of those conditions, including a weak US$, existed prior to Oct 1987 and therefore can’t have been the “proximate” (legal) cause of the crash. A broken tail light cannot be the CAUSE of a car crash.
3/n These conditions, like passive today, create deadly POTENTIAL, but did not cause the crash. According to Mark Rubinstein, the man behind portfolio insurance, their models to sell were triggered by the sharp decline on Oct 15th tied to the Iranian missile… the proverbial
1/n So there’s a lot of mudslinging going around about political ideology. A sub seg of FinTwit seems to have decided that “statist” is an appropriate slur to deploy.
2/n For those wondering, a statist is one who believes in some claim to legitimacy of the political authority of the govt. The antonym of statist is an anarchist, but within statism there is a wide range of beliefs.
3/n “Minarchism” (i not o) is the belief in the minimum necessary state to enforce the “non-aggression principle”, both within a society and from foreign aggression. I am a fan. It is well phrased in the preamble to the Constitution of the US
1/n Got the timing of resolution right, but not direction. Amazing to see a complete retrace in 14 months despite BOTH styles higher. Like I argued with Value back in May 2020, the problem has not been long Large Growth (up 10% in 4 mos), but shorting small (value or growth)
2/n So what now? Is this a replay of 2016 where Large Growth reasserts? Or do we continue the rotation? My bias continues to be that a sustained rally led by value is very hard. Index rebalance beckons. Many high flyers like GME and PLUG are moving out of small and into mid
3/n And valuations have largely normalized with the yield on small value at 0.82% vs 0.66% for large cap growth. P/E ratios similar, especially when quality adjusted.
1/n It's unfortunate that this is the takeaway. I have spoken frequently about the objections I have to the intrusion of the state in private affairs and the benefit we all gain when nation states are held in check. HOWEVER, there is a huge difference between emigration
2/n which physically removes you from the power the state holds (bad actors like Putin often exceed this limit) and a Thoreau style "Civil Disobedience" around a desire to disrupt the functions of the state by intentionally choosing a "monetary system" (asset/commodity/SoV) that
3/n empowers the enemies of your country. If you are not a US citizen, you can make your own calculus as to whether you support the US or China/Russia/Iran. I have no objection to your right to choose. If you are a US citizen, then you are either intentionally undermining the