1/n So there’s a lot of mudslinging going around about political ideology. A sub seg of FinTwit seems to have decided that “statist” is an appropriate slur to deploy.
2/n For those wondering, a statist is one who believes in some claim to legitimacy of the political authority of the govt. The antonym of statist is an anarchist, but within statism there is a wide range of beliefs.
3/n “Minarchism” (i not o) is the belief in the minimum necessary state to enforce the “non-aggression principle”, both within a society and from foreign aggression. I am a fan. It is well phrased in the preamble to the Constitution of the US
4/n "We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare,
5/n and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America." This is a remarkable document, produced by a thoughtful
6/n group of individuals in a process likened to sausage making while juggling flaming swords. At the time, it was unique in the known history of the world. It describes the “What” and “Why” objective functions of the document, not the powers required.
7/n Imho, this was quite intentional, introducing a degree of flexibility in the size/role of the govt required to accomplish the objective f(n) given threats to the objective. The subsequent language, Amendments and BoR extended this flexibility while
8/n introducing a system of checks & balances & individual rights that reduced threats of the govt expanding without limits. While it is common to blame the challenges in America on unchecked growth of govt, I’d
9/n suggest there’s an incoherence in these complaints, alleging both incompetence and master planned nefarious intent. Far more explanatory power exists in a model of “capture”.
10/n To the extent America has gone wrong, I’d suggest it has been the unchecked growth of the power of special interests, enemies of the objective function that take form both foreign and domestic
11/n Regular readers of my work know that I regularly refer to the loss of the Republic in Rome under similar circumstances. A “wonderful” quote about Rome from the period is ascribed to Jugurtha:
12/n "a city for sale and doomed to quick destruction, if it should find a buyer”. Under the stress of regional hegemony that had produced a surplus of “free” slave labor, the capitalist class felt no loyalty to the greater good
13/n and a system of political bribery quickly emerged, with Senatorial votes for sale to the highest bidder. Jugurtha simply exposed the extent of the systemic corruption, similar imho to China and mega corporates today
14/n And this is the rub... because when faced with state level actors, the state itself must expand to address these threats or face loss of credibility in addressing the non-aggression principle. Anyone who has watched a classic Western where
15/n the Sheriff unilaterally expands govt forces by deputizing a band of vigilantes to fight back against a gang of outlaws is familiar with the concept. Imho, the role of the state in protecting life, liberty and happiness is legitimate.
16/n Bitcoiners, as natural anarcho-capitalists, are the internal antagonist to this view, understandably resisting the expansion of the state out of fear that the state will not retreat once the threat is addressed. The Sheriff could theoretically keep his
17/n vigilantes on staff and replace the extortionist outlaws with something far worse. I have no problem with this objection and applaud it. What I can’t endorse is the misrepresentation of facts in the hopes of gaining adherents to this resistance.
18/n It is my view that the frustration of many average Americans are the byproduct of the introduction of modern systems of “tribute” from foreign nations. Cheap iPhones produced with forced labor is no different than gold from Numidian mines or grain from Egypt.
19/n In both cases, the objectives of Jugurtha and Xi are deeply at odds with the objective f(n) of the Preamble to the Constitution from the perspective of Roman and US citizens respectively.
20/n The benefit of their bribes and tribute has accrued to the Senatorial class (through systems of patronage and graft) and the capitalist elite through supply of cheap labor and artificially low tax rates
21/n Imho, like Greenspan before him, the bitcoin maximalists have fallen prey to a “flaw in their world view” — scamsters aside, they are genuinely seeking the best outcome for the individual
22/n guided by the belief in the “invisible hand” to maximize outcomes. This is perfectly encapsulated in bitcoin’s system of protection through adherence to economic incentives.
23/n Unfortunately this system breaks down in the face of non-economic actors. Xi, like Jugurtha before him, is uninterested in maximizing economic well being, instead focused on power accumulation
24/n So as a minarchist I find myself in the uncomfortable position of suggesting we face two choices — an expansion of the role of the state to prevent the actions of scale actors who would harm the objective f(n) OR
25/n a need to radically improve the efficiency of the state to address these threats. The Romans had a solution for that situation — a dictator. This outcome was so odious to
26/n the US founders that they explicitly disavowed it. I share their concern which pushes me to increased regulation on scale US actors and firm diplomatic pressure on China.
27/n Will the Sheriff disband his posse when the outlaws have been defeated? We can’t know. But I’d feel more comfortable with the odds when conducted in a disciplined, thoughtful and proactive manner than when forced by truly exigent circumstances.
28/n Imho, the path of Bitcoin and anarcho-capitalism in the face of state level threats will bring us close enough to the point of failure that we will be thrust into the arms of Marius, the true beginning of the end for the Roman Republic
N/n and with that, as Rufus might say: “Gentlemen, we’re history”

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More from @profplum99

11 Mar
1/n Got the timing of resolution right, but not direction. Amazing to see a complete retrace in 14 months despite BOTH styles higher. Like I argued with Value back in May 2020, the problem has not been long Large Growth (up 10% in 4 mos), but shorting small (value or growth)
2/n So what now? Is this a replay of 2016 where Large Growth reasserts? Or do we continue the rotation? My bias continues to be that a sustained rally led by value is very hard. Index rebalance beckons. Many high flyers like GME and PLUG are moving out of small and into mid
3/n And valuations have largely normalized with the yield on small value at 0.82% vs 0.66% for large cap growth. P/E ratios similar, especially when quality adjusted.
Read 6 tweets
25 Jan
1/n It's unfortunate that this is the takeaway. I have spoken frequently about the objections I have to the intrusion of the state in private affairs and the benefit we all gain when nation states are held in check. HOWEVER, there is a huge difference between emigration
2/n which physically removes you from the power the state holds (bad actors like Putin often exceed this limit) and a Thoreau style "Civil Disobedience" around a desire to disrupt the functions of the state by intentionally choosing a "monetary system" (asset/commodity/SoV) that
3/n empowers the enemies of your country. If you are not a US citizen, you can make your own calculus as to whether you support the US or China/Russia/Iran. I have no objection to your right to choose. If you are a US citizen, then you are either intentionally undermining the
Read 7 tweets
27 Dec 20
1/n As requested, the TLDR. There are many complaints about the ability of the US govt (via Fed and/or fiscal) to “debase” the dollar and bailout corporate interests. This is a complaint about the choice of how to use this power, but the crypto solutions that supposedly
2/n prevent the ability to debase are fundamentally flawed. Gold-backed and other “hard” money systems were designed to attract users to nascent systems, but WJBryan was right about the crucifixion that occurs when the backing is confused for the social good of a standard of
3/n account. A flexible currency allows forgiveness — a crucial ingredient in risk taking. The 17th-19th century was a uniquely fruitful period in human social progress as the opening of the “new” world created a legitimate check on the power of the elite to permanently impair
Read 8 tweets
28 Nov 20
1/n Yes, @LawrenceLepard chart is misleading. (1) datasets are not comparable. Substantive devaluations of the USD vs gold occurred in 1932 and 1971. These were political and not Fed. Debatable whether post-2000 is CB related or whether gold is really expensive.
2/n The UNIQUE inflation of the 1960s and 1970s is largely misunderstood. From my perspective, the story of "stagflation" in this period is false. There was no "slow growth" in the 1970s -- fastest growth rates for housing and jobs in US history.
3/n This becomes relevant as we think about what Fed has "actually" been doing -- staving off rampant DEFLATION. Were we still on the gold std, we'd be facing events of deflation similar to Great Depression since 2000. Instead, a "flexible" currency has encouraged "stability"
Read 4 tweets
24 Nov 20
1/n It's looking pretty good for the "I told you so" value crowd (and my DMs have been full of "I told you so"). However, there is a big difference between "Value" and "Anti-Momentum". The "value" factor has not actually done anything when adjusted for the anti-momentum dynamic
2/n When we look at the Value factor alone (Value longs vs Value shorts), it's interesting that it looks exactly like economic recoveries in 2002-3 and 2009-10. In contrast, in 2000, a VERY different dynamic occurred
3/n And when we look at market neutral momentum, we have unwound virtually ALL of the momentum outperformance YTD and are now below the 5y moving average and almost at the post GFC trendline that has sustained prior "corrections".
Read 7 tweets
2 Oct 20
@jam_croissant @mre2all 1/n Thanks for this. While I actually agree with some of the fundamentals here, I'm a bit skeptical of the mechanics. Companies like AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, etc have remarkably strong cash flows and have not had to tap capital markets except to subsidize employee compensation
@jam_croissant @mre2all 2/n While we can argue Fed support helped these corps, it seems more likely that the Fed has net hurt these corporations by keeping funding flowing to their weaker competitors. In fact, highly rated corp debt growth has been restrained while lower quality debt has grown rapidly
@jam_croissant @mre2all 3/n I'd go further and note that the holders of "value" stocks continue to be active managers. @choffstein recent piece does a good job of illustrating this. Unless you can create a mechanism for passive funds to flow into actively managed vehicles, I don't see how this reverses
Read 5 tweets

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