Thread by @gallardo_ortega

The European Commission is preparing for a partial suspension of the Northern Ireland protocol by the UK. But such a move could pose a major test of European unity.

Here’s a long thread on what might become the bumpiest months yet in the EU-UK relation:
pro.politico.eu/news/141246

The Commission’s formal response to the UK’s proposal to change the #NIprotocol is due Wednesady and will include an exception for “national identity food products,” allowing sausages and other products to enter NI from GB after the end of previously-agreed grace periods.

But in a speech in Lisbon Tuesday, @DavidGHFrost will warn that the EU proposals are insufficient. He will press the bloc to scrap its ban on British chilled meats entering NI from the rest of the UK altogether and remove oversight of the European Court of Justice in the region.

Frost will argue the ECJ “has created a deep imbalance in the way the protocol operates.”
But Brussels considers this issue settled since the Brexit divorce deal became international law and does not want to reopen one of the trickiest issues of the 2019 negotiations.

We should expect at least three weeks of intense talks between London and Brussels, with Britain refraining from suspending the protocol until at least mid-November.
The UK is expected to opt for a partial suspension, limited to the areas where no compromise is reached.

This could be achieved by refusing to implement Articles 5 and 7 of the protocol, which deal with customs duties on goods entering NI from GB as well as certification and standards. That does not necessarily mean the end of all controls on GB-NI trade, however.

Depending on the outcome of the talks this fall, the UK might also add Article 10 to the mix. This requires the UK to inform Brussels of any state subsidy decisions benefitting British firms supplying goods to Northern Ireland. Rewriting Article 10 is one of Frost’s key demands.

Suspension of the protocol would give Britain an opportunity to impose its own solutions. London would buy time to gather evidence supporting its hypothesis that the UK’s approach does not actually undermine the EU’s single market.

It will then seek to persuade EU member states that retaliatory measures on trade with the Continent would be more painful for their own economies than the UK. And that is where EU unity might crumble.

Time is on Britain’s side. Invoking Article 16 would kick-off a lengthy process of consultation at the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement Joint Committee. The EU would then consider its options and is likely to reactivate the two paused lawsuits it launched against the UK in March.

Tariffs on valuable British exports like cars is already being floated as potential retaliation, but that would be the end of the road. EU members might be wary of taking measures against the UK that also damage their own national economies as they seek to recover from COVID-19.

Despite shared anger against Boris Johnson, diplomats from some EU countries feel uneasy about France pushing them beyond what they are willing to accept, due to the bad relationship between Paris and London.

Aware of how long the legal process against the UK would take, I’m told the Commission plans to consult with EU ambassadors in Brussels on faster retaliatory measures.
This include permanently putting on ice a MoU on financial services, yet to be signed off by EU governments.

Freezing Britain’s participation in Horizon Europe, the EU’s research and development program — which the UK is hoping to associate to this year — has also been floated.
But @RaoulRuparel warns only tariffs and the suspension of data equivalence might force a rethink in No10.

.@RaoulRuparel: “The only real hard enforcement the EU has here is how much pain they can cause the UK — and does that pain cost the UK more than it values what it wants to do in Northern Ireland?”