Thread by @gcapoccia1

So, the elimination of the ECJ jurisdiction on how EU rules are interpreted in NI is a “red line” now for UKGovt. Obviously, they are reneging on the solution that they themselves proposed only a few months ago.🧵 /1
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…

The EU is extremely unlikely to accept this because a different body would likely provide a different interpretation of EU law than the ECJ, thus creating legal uncertainty in the single market. Preventing such uncertainty is exactly what the ECJ is there for. /2

The EU will have little else left to do than threaten the suspension of the TCA. The UKGovt will likely try to prevent this by encouraging some member states (Brexiter governments have been coveting the Polish and the Hungarian governments since 2017) to block this move. /3

The European Commission would therefore have to make concessions to these governments on other fronts in order to secure their support. These concessions will weaken the EU cohesion in other respects. /4

Weakening the EU, not reaching a stable settlement is the ultimate goal of this UKGovt --unless such settlement is so much in their favor that itself undermines the integrity of the single market, twisting competition in favor of UK companies and against EU companies. /5

And even if the UKGovt ultimately has to back down faced with the threat of TCA suspension, they will likely continue to "fight every day", pulling each trick in the book to extract more concessions and to avoid reaching a stable settlement. /END