Thread by @gcapoccia1

The perspective of "hollowing out" from within, ie seriously undermining the integrity of the legal order supporting the single market, is the biggest threat faced by the EU at the moment. /1🧵

It is at the heart of the position taken by the Polish Constitutional Tribunal, and it would be the effect (and is probably one of the purposes) of the attack to the jurisdiction of the ECJ in Northern Ireland by the UKGovt. /2

If member states can declare parts of the EU Treaties incompatible with their constitution (Poland), or a different adjudication body replaces the ECJ in NI (UK), EU law would no longer have a single ultimate adjudicator that creates legal certainty for the single market. /3

These are existential threats for the EU. If EU authorities do not fend them off, the “hollowing out” scenario becomes a real possibility—many legal competences would have to be “repatriated” to nation-state, and the EU would lose force as a regulatory body. /4

The regulatory powers of the EU, and the depth of the EU single market, are the core of whatever international clout the EU has now. /5
ft.com/content/822197…

But a key fight for the future of the EU will take place in France in 2022. Many presidential candidates have expressed anti-EU views of different intensities. Early polls should be taken with a grain of salt, but such views may be majoritarian in the electorate. /6

No candidate talks about “Frexit”. The costs would be too high. But Zemmour, who openly endorsed the position of the Polish government, has openly talked about disobeying any EU rule that is unsuitable to France’s “national interests”—the definition of “hollowing out” the EU. /7

Le Pen has toned down her anti-EU rhetoric, but she has not changed her fundamental positions against EU integration. She and Zemmour together have more than 30% of the vote. /8

With nuances and from different perspectives, also Barnier (LR), Montebourg (independent, ex Socialist), and Melenchon (LFI), who have more than 20% of the vote among them, have expressed views contrary to ECJ jurisdiction in specific areas. /9
harris-interactive.fr/opinion_polls/…

Adding the splinters of the extreme right and the extreme left, traditionally anti-EU for different reasons, about 60% of the French electorate is on anti-EU positions. /10

These challenges to the EU reinforce each other. A robust response on the part of the EU to the Polish and UK challenges to the integrity of the EU legal order is even more important given the dangers that are still to come. /END