This is also true in Britain - education (and age) polarisation seen now is genuinely new and different. One thing I would add - education polarisation also matters far more because of demographic change. The graduate class has grown drastically in the last 30 years
A generation ago, graduates were still over-represented in politics, but they couldn't bend political discussion towards the issues that exercised them most because doing so would be electorally nonsensical in a country where 85-90% of voters were non-graduates
Now, with the share of graduates approaching 40% (and higher still in younger cohorts, in the Labour electoral coalition etc) graduates have a lot more electoral heft - but not enough heft to win.
The graduate class is also large enough to give rise to political monocultures - many grads will live & work in social networks almost entirely comprised of like-minded fellow grads. Political (and media) elite organisations increasingly look like that, esp on the left
All of this creates a similarly troublesome situation for Labour as @davidshor diagnoses for the Dems - Labour is organisationally dominated by socially lbieral grads, whose distinctive views on politics don't resonate with the voters needed to win a majority in today's Britain.
@davidshor The very difficult task I think both Labour and Dems face is persuading very committed, passionate people that their broad political goal is best served by setting aside some of the issues they feel most passionately about, and talking more about things that animate them less.
@davidshor I have other thoughts about this excellent discussion of the Shor diagnosis by @ezraklein in today's NY Times, and which bits of it translate (or don't) to Britain, which I'll try and return to tomorrow (want to think them through):…
@davidshor @ezraklein Plus my usual reminder that if you're interested in how educational polarisation and the mobilisation of divisive identity issues such as immigration and Brexit have reshaped our politics, @ProfSobolewska and I have a book you'll like!…
@davidshor @ezraklein @ProfSobolewska There's another problem common to Labour and Dems flagged by @Nate_Cohn in recent work - many of the lower education white voters both parties have lost arguably won't come back. Some of the partisan bonds broken over the last decade are broken for good:
@davidshor @ezraklein @ProfSobolewska @Nate_Cohn Just as, on Cohn's account, going back to 2012 is just not possible for Dems now because too many white non-college voters' partisanship has changed, it may similarly not be possible for Labour to go back to a 1997-2005 style broad tend coalition because same voters have flipped
@davidshor @ezraklein @ProfSobolewska @Nate_Cohn If we have a structural situation where a large chunk of the white, school leaver electorate has gone from a weak, but stable Lab(or Dem) partisan lean to a stronger, more stable Con/Leave (Rep) lean, that is going to make building a new winning coalition even harder.
@davidshor @ezraklein @ProfSobolewska @Nate_Cohn As Cohn observes, simply avoiding or defusing the issues that drove such voters out of the left coalition (in Britain - immigration and Brexit) won't work - you need to have an offer which *actively attracts them back*.
@davidshor @ezraklein @ProfSobolewska @Nate_Cohn But what is the package that both attracts disaffected white school leavers, while still being something that white graduate liberals can not only accept, but actively sell with enthusiasm? Not easy. But without an answer to that Q Lab may not have a route to majority govt.

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More from @robfordmancs

11 Oct
There is more I want to say on this topic when I have time (a theme I will return to shortly) but I want to say that I *profoundly* disagree with this kind of "unless you're shouting about it on Twitter, you condone it" argument, which is both illiberal and counterproductive
Firstly, it is patently absurd to claim that you are a proponent of academic freedom while also saying "unless you loudly support this behaviour/campaign/opinion/judgement, you are the enemy". The whole *point* of academic freedom is freedom to *disagree*.
Secondly, there are a whole host of legitimate reasons why academics, with or without "public profiles" might want to refrain from engaging in a particular controversy. Matt, typically, treats the situation as a simplistic black & white morality play. It usually is not.
Read 10 tweets
11 Oct
I don't think I ever argued threats to academic freedom were non-existent. What I in fact argued, which is very different, is that many of those campaigning for academic freedom did so on the basis of evidence which did not stand up to scrutiny.
I did this very specifically, on a case by case basis, using evidence sources that individuals such as @goodwinmj and Eric Kaufmann (who I can't include in this discussion of freedom of academics to disagree on Twitter because he blocked me for disagreeing with him)
@GoodwinMJ Here is one thread where I did that. Readers can judge for themselves whether Matthew's description of my position is fair:

Read 10 tweets
5 Oct
Could the outcome of a second Scottish independence referendum depend on the question put on the ballot paper? M'learned colleagues @robjohns75 John Garry and I ran an experiment to find out. You can read about it here...…
@robjohns75 We randomly assigned a representative sample of Scottish respondents to one of three questions:
1. "Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country? Yes/No (this was the SNP's preferred question in 2014, but was shot down by the Electoral Commission)
@robjohns75 2. "Should Scotland be an independent country?" (Yes/No) (this was the question asked in 2014)
3. Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom (Remain/Leave) - this adapts the EU referendum question formula to the issue of Scottish independence
Read 9 tweets
29 Sep
This is the sectoral cost of grade inflation - over-recruitment at the top, under-recruitment at the bottom. Both hurt student experience. A grades based offer system cannot function if the grades are not consistent or reliable. Risk is we get a new phase of trouble next year 1/2
If Russell Group unis put up tarriffs sharply after 2 years of over-recruitment (likely) and grade distribution returns to something like pre-pandemic "normal" (plausible), then we will have sharp reduction in places given at RG, but also less capacity at lower tariff unis
Who, like Goldsmiths today, may have begun cutting back courses, staff, places etc. So we will go from feast to famine, and finishing A-level students will find that the options available to them are dramatically different to those available 1-2 years earlier.
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
Off down to Brighton to do an event with the lovely people at @Labour4PR this evening. Some light reading for the train
TIL that in the 1945 GE it was still legal for people who lived in one constituency and worked in another to register in both and vote twice. I assume it is no longer legal to do this. No idea when they changed it though.
1945 was also the first election where all the results were declared overnight. Between 1922 and 1935 less than half of seats declared overnight and before 1922 the voting itself was spread over two weeks
Read 4 tweets
24 Sep
Was reminded today that its been a while since I did one of these. Eve of Labour conference seems a good point to take another look. Starmer was announced as leader on 4th April 2020, so we are now (again) 17 months in...
More don't seem to have done a leader approval for Sept 2021 yet (maybe they're holding it back for conference next week) but August's figure for Starmer was -26, while September's (related but somewhat different) satisfaction rating was -25. I'll use the -26
Here's Starmer ranked relative to earlier oppo ldrs on MORI data:

Corbyn: -38
IDS: -37
Foot -35
Starmer -26
Hague -21
Howard -20
Ed M -18
Kinnock -13
Cameron -4
Smith +4
Blair +22
Read 9 tweets

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