Thread by @UticaRisk

So #Iraq had parliamentary elections today. We await results which are expected w/n 24 hours.

The one result which can be announced is that participation was low. Precise % not released yet, but talk from Iraqi journos is that optimistically they hope it will exceed 40%.

The other observation from multiple sources - some others here on twitter have also noticed this - is that participation from the youth was very low. Participation from older Iraqis appears to have been respectable.

From studying the district candidacies & from what is coming out of multiple Arab TV channels on how it, if there are any big wins they will likely be the Sadrists in Baghdad & the south & Speaker Muhammad al-Halbusi in the Sunni-majority provinces. Specific reasons:

The Sadrists had the highest ratio of results from 2018 to # of candidates in this election; i.e. they chose their candidacies carefully and didn't dilute their vote. For the other Shia blocs, there was a lot more overlap in candidacies from similar but competing blocs.

This election is taking place with multiple districts within a province. This in principle rewards blocs which concentrate their votes in a district and there not be candidates from other blocs with similar orientations. This point should give Sadrists a boost.

To give a specific example of this: while Hakim & Abadi have a common coalition, they still ran separate candidates in many districts. Furthermore, there were several blocs running candidates previously tied to either Hakim and Abadi. This will dilute their votes.

You might ask, "Why would Hakim and Abadi form a coalition but then both run candidates in many districts?" That's a very good question. I'll be surprised if they get a good result from this campaign.

https://twitter.com/UticaRisk/status/1447253104429252617

Regarding Halbusi, he had a MASSIVE organizational advantage over his keep competitors. In addition to this, he is in a similar position as the Sadrists, with rivals who are similar in their profiles running separately against him.

Example: Khanjar & the Islamic Party ran separately in this election (the IP with Falih al-Fayyad, & Khanjar has his own bloc). Khanjar also ran with Osama al-Nujayfi in 2018 but they fell out. They all have more commonalities than they have with Halbusi.

Halbusi should also benefit from Salih al-Mutlak not running, & from Iyad Allawi flaming out after initially registering. They had secularist/centralist platforms in the past & I'd think if their supporters vote at all, Halbusi is better placed than others to pick them up.

Of course, one might say that Allawi should have realized his campaigns were pointless years ago, but that's a different issue.

Details aside, a more general point: I disagree with the comments we're hearing in Iraqi media about it being a good thing PM didn't run bc it supposedly ensured neutrality. But there is no political accountability when the PM doesn't run or didn't run in the past.

There is also a lot of talk on Iraqi TV right now about how well the vote went, with regrets for the few who voted. But as others have noted, the assassination campaign by militias pre-election is what gave rise to the boycott movement. That itself was the govt's responsibility.

There is a good chance this election is going to be judged a pointless failure.

Strong scenario: a weak PM will hand off to another weak PM chosen by Sadr & Amiri, a PM who didn't run in the election, has no mandate, & no ability to accomplish anything.

-END