Regarding events in Iraq today: first, this is the text of Abd al-Mahdi's "resignation" statement. I would encourage media to be careful about using the word "resignation" to the extent that implies AAM has left or will imminently leave office.
pmo.iq/press2019/29-1…
pmo.iq/press2019/29-1…
My take is that this is the end of the beginning of this crisis, not the beginning of the end. AAM simply says "I will submit my formal resignation" to parliament, after noting that he said he was ready to resign last month. There is no clear rule parl't has to accept it.
Notably, AAM's statement contains a lengthy quote from the religious authorities' statement from Karbala today. This is the video of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani rep Ahmad al-Safi:
What strikes me about this is that AAM is very specific that he will submit his resignation due to Sistani saying "parliament should review its options" on the government. AAM submitting his resignation simply signals his acceptance of this demand by religious authority.
Notable also is what is missing: AAM does not mention the protests, or the deaths in the protests, as a reason to resign. He is "submitting his resigation" because religious leaders said so.
So I see 3 options, from most to least likely:
1) AAM submits his resignation to parl't tomorrow or Sunday, whenever it next meets, and parl't puts it on hold until the political class can decide what it wants to do, & vote no confidence in a few weeks or months.
Most likely.
1) AAM submits his resignation to parl't tomorrow or Sunday, whenever it next meets, and parl't puts it on hold until the political class can decide what it wants to do, & vote no confidence in a few weeks or months.
Most likely.
2) Parliament votes no confidence immediately. If so, then President Salih has 30 days to pick a new prime minister-designate and AAM stays on as caretaker PM for that month.
3) Parliament accepts AAM's resignation, the PM's office becomes vacant, and President Salih becomes PM according to the constitution.
I see almost no chance of this. It will be option 1) or 2).
I see almost no chance of this. It will be option 1) or 2).
Again I stress that journalists should avoid saying something like, "Iraq's PM has resigned." If the US President resigns, he leaves the White House & the VP takes the oath of office. Abd al-Mahdi can submit his resignation tomorrow & still be in office on New Year's & beyond.
